Asian market review 31/01/2008

Most of Asian markets rose today following the 50 basis points rate cut made by the Fed overnight. Banking stocks which fell early in the morning, erased all its losses as subprime fears eased slightly. Investors were also looking for stocks with good earnings report regardless of sector and that helped the Asian market to rebound in the afternoon. Japan's Nikkei rose 247.44 pts or 1.84% to 13592.47 while its futures was closed at 13560 in Osaka. Although Nikkei rose in this final trading day of the month, it's still down 11.2% since the beginning of the year.
Kospi started the day weaker at 203.55 and it went down further still to 202.60 before making its rebound up for most of the session. Volatility was still high with moves ranging between 150-250 pts and Kospi was ended higher at 207.85. Kospi moved between 202.60-210.20.
Hangseng started the day at roughly the same price as its closing price yesterday at 23687. It rose up to 23948 before plunging down just within the hour to its lowest at 23065. It rebounded back up and closed the 1st session at 23529. 2nd session, we see Hangseng opened up at 23597 and it went up further to 23900ish before retreating back and ended the day lower at 23465. Hangseng was one of the region's loser for today as more subprime issues still have investors worry and possible downgrades for bond insurers in the US made investors flee too. Volatilty was very high again today and Hangseng moved between 23065-23948.

Asian market preview 31/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS jatuh semalam, menyerahkan 200 pts rally setelah Fed memangkas rate sebesar 0.5%. Para investor memilih untuk profit taking setelah 3 sesi kenaikan yg cukup banyak, mereka merasa khawatir dengan banyaknya ketidakpastian untuk ekonomi sekarang. Perekonomian tumbuh hanya 0.6% di Q4 di AS, lebih rendah dibandingkan 1.2% menurut perkiraan para ekonom. Downgrade untuk finansial sektor dan juga laporan2 ekonomi yg masih akan keluar hari Kamis dan Jumat, cukup untuk membuat investor ambil profit. Dow jatuh 37.47 pts atau 0.3% ke 12442.83, S&P500 jatuh 6.49 pts atau 0.48% ke 1355.81 dan Nasdaq jatuh 9.06 pts atau 0.38% ke 2349.00. Laporan employment dan manufacturing akan keluar hari Jumat, dan juga menjadi salah satu kekhawatiran pasar.
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan dibuka jatuh sedikit, seiring dengan penutupan yg lebih rendah di Wall St semalam. Tetapi, dengan pemotongan rate dari the Fed, pasar2 di Asia mungkin tidak akan jatuh terlalu banyak dan mungkin juga akan melakukan sedikit rally setelah jatuh cukup dalam kemarin. Minyak mentah di trade di $91.70an per barrel, emas di $927an dan JPY jatuh ke 106an. Nikkei futures ditutup di 13400 di CME, lebih rendah dibandingkan penutupan 13450 di Singapore dan berubah sedikit dari penutupan 13395 di Osaka.
Kospi mungkin akan dibuka lebih rendah lagi setelah AS ditutup melemah semalam dan juga dengan banyaknya ketidakpastian di pasar. Tapi, dalam sesi trading, mungkin ada sedikit chance untuk rebound seiring dengan pemangkasan rate dari the Fed. Volatilitas akan menjadi faktor utama lagi hari ini untuk para day trader dan saya rasa akan banyak chance untuk ambil posisi hari ini.
Hangseng mungkin akan memulai hari ini dekat2 harga kemarin dan jika investor melihat sisi positif dari Fed rate cut, kita mungkin akan melihat sedikit rally di pasar hari ini setelah market jatuh cukup dalam kemarin. Volatilitas mungkin akan tinggi lagi hari ini dan kita dapat mengambil keuntungan dari sini.

Asian market preview 31/01/2008

US markets fell overnight, giving up a nice 200 pts rally following the Fed's rate cut by 0.5%. Investors decided to cash in after 3 sessions of strong gains, unwilling to leave money on the table amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The economy grew at 0.6% in Q4, lower than the economists' estimate of 1.2% grow. More downgrades for financial institutions and also more economic reports to come on Thursday and Friday was enough to make people take profits. Dow lost 37.47 pts or 0.3% to 12442.83 after rising as much as 200 pts. S&P500 fell 6.49 pts or 0.48% to 1355.81 and Nasdaq fell 9.06 pts or 0.38% to 2349.00. Job market and manufacturing reports set to arrive on Friday, which could also add to investors' concern.
Asian market may open slightly lower at the start, following the lower close in Wall St overnight. However, with the Fed's rate cut in place, Asian markets may not go much lower and may also gain after losing a lot of ground yesterday. Crude oil traded at $91.70ish per barrel, gold at $927ish and JPY fell to 106ish. Nikkei futures closed at 13400 in CME, lower than the close of 13450 in Singapore and little change from the close of 13395 in Osaka.
Kospi may open slightly lower again today after the US closed lower overnight and also with so many uncertainties clouding the market these days. But during the trading session, there may also be a chance of a slight rebound up following the Fed's rate cut. Volatility will be the main key again here today for day traders and I think there will be many chances to take position today.
Hangseng may start with little change today and should the investors think positive with the Fed's rate decision, we may see some market rally today following the steep loss yesterday. Volatility in the market may be high again and we could capitalize on this.

Asian market review 30/01/2008

Asian markets fell today as cautious investors step aside and take their money off the table following the Fed meeting and rate announcement later on tonight. Losses in the region also paced by South Korean shipbuilders after Macquarie Group cut ratings on Hyundai Heavy and Samsung Heavy. Bank of China also led the declines on financial sector after UBS AG reported a record loss of about $14 billion of writedowns related to subprime mortgages. MSCI Asia Pacific index lost 1.2% to 141.56, reversing an earlier gain of 0.8%. Japan's Nikkei fell 1% to 13345.03 and its futures was closed at 13395 in Osaka. Crude oil recently traded at $92ish per barrel, gold at $921ish and JPY at 106.60ish.
Kospi started the day higher at 212.00 following the US rally overnight. However, the gains didn't last long, it tumbled after reaching 212.60. Kospi's declines were paced after shipbuilders' ratings were cut and it fell the most in the region of up to 3%. Kospi fell to as low as 203.40 and it was closed at 206.45. Market was quite volatile today with moves ranging between 100-300 pts each time but with the downward trend. Kospi moved between 203.40-212.60.
Hangseng opened higher at 24479 and it had an early morning rally of up to 24736 before starting its descend. It continued downward to close the 1st session at 23930. 2nd session opened at 24018 but it reversed course and continued on downward to as low as 23510 before closed at 23603. The prices I'm talking here is from the new futures contract as the old ones expired today. Hangseng moved between 23510-24736 today in a very volatile market. Investors are anxiously waiting for the Fed's decision due out later on tonight.

Asian market preview 30/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS naik lagi untuk hari ke-2 dipimpin oleh bank dan perusahaan komunikasi. Kenaikan dipicu oleh kenaikan durable goods order dan juga earnings2 yg bagus dari perusahaan2 yg melaporkan hari Selasa. Para investor juga masih menunggu keputusan dari the Fed untuk keputusan rate mereka, dan mengharapkan the Fed akan memangkas 0.5% setelah mereka selesai pertemuan mereka pada hari Rabu nanti. Dow naik 96.41 pts atau 0.78% ke 12480.30, S&P500 naik 8.34 pts atau 0.62% ke 1362.30 dan Nasdaq naik 8.15 pts atau 0.35% ke 2538.06. Yang menjadi kekhawatiran sekarang adalah, jika Fed memangkas rate 50 basis points, keputusan ini juga masih akan memakan waktu untuk berdampak di pasar dan mungkin masih ada chance buat market untuk jatuh kembali.
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan mengikuti AS dan dibuka naik lagi hari ini dan meneruskan rally dari kemarin. Volume trading mungkin akan rendah hari ini jika para investor masuk mode wait n see untuk keputusan the Fed malam nanti. Minyak mentah juga naik semalam ke $92an per barrel, emas ada di $923an dan JPY trade di 107an. Nikkei futures di CME ditutup di 13580, naik dari penutupan 13415 di Osaka dan 13480 di Singapore.
Kospi mungkin akan dibuka naik untuk hari ke-2 dan mungkin akan meneruskan rally kemarin. Kospi mungkin akan dibuka di kisaran 212an tapi volume trading dan volatilitas mungkin akan menurun disebabkan oleh para investor dalam wait n see mode.
Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka naik lagi setelah AS ditutup naik semalam disebabkan oleh optimisme bahwa Fed akan memangkas 0.5% malam nanti. Saya akan menggunakan harga2 kontrak baru untuk Hangseng karena yg lama akan habis hari ini. Hangseng mungkin dibuka di kisaran 24500an tapi trading volume akan rendah dan mungkin kenaikan tidak terlalu signifikan hari ini.

Asian market preview 30/01/2008

US markets gained for 2nd day; led by banks and telephone companies, on better than expected durable goods order and good earnings from the companies reporting it on Tuesday. Meanwhile, investors are waiting for the Fed's decision on the rate policy, expecting them to cut another 0.5% after their meeting on Wednesday. Dow rose 96.41 pts or 0.78% to 12480.30, S&P500 rose 8.34 pts or 0.62% to 1362.30 and Nasdaq climbed 8.15 pts or 0.35% to 2538.06. The only concern now is that should the Fed did cut rate by 50 basis points, it will still take time for the new policy to make an impact on the general markets, and there may still be some downtrends in the meantime.
Asian markets may play along with the US and open higher again today and may continue the rally from yesterday. However, trading volume maybe low today as investors await for the Fed's decision to be sure and get some grounds on the global economy outlook. Crude oil rose overnight to $92ish per barrel, gold at $923ish and JPY traded at 107ish. Nikkei futures at CME closed at 13580, up from the close here of 13415 in Osaka and 13480 in Singapore.
The Kospi may open higher for 2nd day today and may continue yesterday's rally. Kospi may opened around 212ish region but today's trading volume and volatility may be low as investors may sit on the sidelines to see what the Fed has in store for us.
Hangseng may open higher today after the US closed higher amid optimism that the Fed will cut another 0.5% tonight. I'll be using new contract prices for Hangseng as the old contract will be ending today. Hangseng may open around 24500ish but today's volume may be low as investors may wait for more certainty.

Asian market review 29/01/2008

Asian markets rose today, rebounding from steep losses yesterday following the US rally overnight caused by the optimism that the Fed will cut rate again as expected during the 2-days meeting ending on Wednesday. The chance of a half-point cut rose to 88% and another 12% think that the Fed will cut rates by quarter-point during their meeting. Japanese Nikkei rose 390.95 pts or 2.99% to 13478.86 and its futures rose and was closed at 13415 in Singapore at 2.30 PM. Crude oil was recently traded around $91ish per barrel, gold at $923ish and JPY at 106.50ish.
The Kospi opened the day higher at 211.00 and rose further to as much as 212.65 before giving up the gains in intraday trading. Overall, Kospi still rose today closed at 210.70. Kospi was very volatile today, moving between the small trading range but at a fast pace, up and down moving between 150-300 pts each time. Kospi moved between 207.90-212.65.
Hangseng opened higher at 24770 for old contract and 24809 for new contract, and it rose within seconds to 24887 in old contract and 24918 in new contract. Hangseng was very volatile too with moves ranging from 100-400 pts at one point in intraday. It quickly gave up its gains in intraday, going to as low as 24300ish during 1st session and was closed at 24673 in 1st session. 2nd session, we saw Hangseng continue on with its high volatility pattern, with moves ranging up to 200 pts each time and was opened at 24653. It continued on lower and it broke its low point near the end of trading session. Hangseng was closed at 24302 for old contract and 24349 for new contract. Hangseng moved between 24202-24887 for old and 24239-24918 for new.

Asian market preview 29/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS rally semalam setelah new home sales terparah menjadi tanda bahwa Fed akan menurunkan rate minggu ini. Penjualan rumah baru di December jatuh 4.7% dan menjadikan penjualan tahun 2007 terjun ke 26.4% dibandingkan dengan 2006. Data ini membuat para investor berspekulasi bahwa Fed akan memangkas rate dengan lebih agresif setelah meeting mereka hari Rabu nanti. Dow naik 176.72 pts atau 1.45% ke 12383.89, S&P500 naik 23.36 pts atau 1.76% ke 1353.97 dan Nasdaq naik 23.71 pts atau 1.02% ke 2349.91. Trading masih diperkirakan akan volatile dengan ketidakpastian masih menghantui investor, setidaknya hingga hari Rabu ketika keputusan rate dari the Fed menjadi pasti, dimana keputusan itu akan membuat market rally atau terjun bebas dan membuat market menjadi benar2 bearish.
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan dibuka naik dan akan melakukan rebound setelah terjun kemarin seiring dengan spekulasi pemangkasan rate akan dibuat oleh Fed setelah data buruk tentang penjualan rumah baru semalam. Harga2 komoditi dan emas juga naik seiring dengan rally di Wall St; Minyak mentah di trade di $91an per barrel, emas dihargai sekitar $927.50an dan JPY di trade di 107an. Nikkei futures ditutup di 13365 di CME, naik dari penutupan 13140 dan 13180 disini kemarin sore.
Kospi mungkin akan dibuka naik dan mungkin akan dibuka di kisaran 211an seiring dengan rally di AS semalam. Jika para investor ingin bertaruh lebih banyak di pasar saham, Kospi mungkin akan mencoba ke 217an hari ini. Volatilitas mungkin masih akan tinggi dengan banyaknya ketidakpastian dan laporan earnings mungkin akan memainkan peran penting.
Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka naik dan mungkin akan rebound dari jatuh yg sangan dalam kemarin setelah para investor di AS menantikan rate cut. Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka di 24700an dan mungkin akan rally keatas 25000an lagi hari ini. Market mungkin akan sangat2 volatile lagi hari ini.

Asian market preview 29/01/2008

US markets rose overnight after a worst-than-expected new home sales became a sign that the Fed will lower rates this week. Sales of new homes in December fell 4.7% and the 2007 new home sales plunged by a record 26.4% compared to 2006. This data has sparked the speculation that the Fed will make another wide cut after their meeting on Wednesday. Dow rose 176.72 pts or 1.45% to 12383.89, S&P500 advanced 23.36 pts or 1.76% to 1353.97 and Nasdaq rose 23.71 pts or 1.02% to 2349.91. Trading are still expected to be volatile with uncertainties still looming on investors, perhaps at least until Wednesday when Fed's decision is certain, which will make the market either rally or plunge and the bear may prevail.
Asian markets may open higher and make a rebound from yesterday's sharp losses today following the rate cut speculation to be made by the Fed after a bad new home sales data overnight. Commodities prices and precious metals prices also rose following the rally; Crude oil traded at $91ish per barrel, gold priced around $927.50ish and JPY traded around 107ish. Nikkei futures settled at 13365 in CME, higher than the close here of 13140 and 13180 yesterday.
The Kospi may open higher today and may open around 211ish following the US markets rally overnight. Should the investors want to bet more on the stock markets, it may try to go up to 217ish today. Volatility may still be high with a lot of uncertainties and also earnings report may take charge locally.
Hangseng may open higher and may rebound from another sharp loss yesterday after US investors are looking forward to another rate cut by the Fed. Hangseng may open around 24700ish and may go up to more than 25000 again today in a very very volatile market in the region.

Asian market review 28/01/2008

Asian markets fell today following the decline on Wall St last Friday. The fears of US and now Japan slipping into recession paced the losses in the region with Nikkei falling as much as 4% and Hangseng 5%. Nikkei fell 541.25 pts or 3.97% to 13087.91 and its futures fell to 13090 in Singapore at 2.30PM. More uncertainties are clouding the stock markets as investors afraid that the global economy is contracting following US and Japan as both of the countries are said to be already in recession.
Kospi opened at 212.70 and it was pretty flat until about 8.30 AM when it started the rollercoaster ride, falling towards the 210ish region and up again to 212ish region before finally giving up entirely falling to as low as 206.90. Volatility in the market was high but not as high as last week; the trading range was narrower today. Kospi moved between 206.90-213.85.
Hangseng opened lower following the US fall on Friday, opening at 24519 and it fell down straight away without ever came back to the open price. Volatility was quite high but not as high as it used to, moving between 100-200 pts each time. It went down in 1st session and was closed at 23889. 2nd Session opened lower at 23696 and it went down further to 23549 before it finally rebounded back up in a more volatile session than 1st session. It kept going up and was closed at its highest peak for session 2 at 24280. Hangseng moved between 23549-24519.

Asian market preview 28/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS menutup minggu lalu melemah hari Jumat setelah para investor menarik uang kemenangan mereka dari pasar dikarenakan masih terlalu banyak yg tidak menentu untuk perekonomian AS. Dow Jones ditutup turun 171.44 pts atau 1.38% ke 12207.17, S&P500 jatuh 21.46 pts atau 1.59% ke 1330.61 dan Nasdaq jatuh 34.72 pts atau 1.47% ke 2326.20. Akan banyak data2 yg akan keluar dari AS minggu ini dan juga yg terpenting adalah keputusan the Fed akan suku bunga di AS. Data penjualan rumah baru akan keluar hari Senin, Durable goods order akan keluar hari Selasa, GDP untuk AS akan dikeluarkan hari Rabu, Personal Spending akan keluar hari Kamis dan Jumat adalah data manufacturing dan unemployment untuk AS yang akan menunjukan bagaimana ekonomi disana pada bulan Januari. Keputusan the Fed akan rate di AS akan diumumkan hari Rabu setelah mereka menyelesaikan meeting mereka selama 2 hari. Tetapi, untuk para investor, pertanyaan terbesar mereka adalah: Seberapa besar resiko hutang2 di pembukuan untuk bank saat ini, seiring dengan keputusan buruk mereka untuk bertaruh di Subprime Mortgage?
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan memulai minggu ini melemah hari ini setelah Wall St jatuh hari Jumat. Para investor mungkin akan menjauh dari pasar saham hingga ada sedikit pegangan yg solid seperti keputusan rate dari the Fed dan juga data ekonomi yg akan keluar dari AS supaya para investor akan dapat mengukur jika AS akan benar2 mengalami resesi dan juga seberapa parah resesi itu akan berdampak pada pasar global. Pasar komoditi juga akan mengalami hal yg serupa; Crude oil di trade di $90.70an per barrel, emas di $913an dan JPY di 106.85an. Nikkei futures ditutup di 13420 di CME, lebih rendah dibanding penutupan 13690 disini hari Jumat.
Kospi mungkin akan mengalami minggu yg volatile lagi minggu ini dan mungkin akan memulainya dengan melemeah hari ini setelah Wall St jatuh hari Jumat dikarenakan oleh profit taking dan juga ketidak pastian menunggu minggu yg sangat penting di AS. Kospi mungkin akan mulai di 211an dan mungkin akan jatuh lebih jauh jika para investor benar2 ingin menjauh dari saham2 sebelum hari Rabu.
Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka melemah hari ini, dikarenakan oleh profit taking setelah para investor merasa mereka sudah menang cukup banyak setelah kenaikan yg cukup tajam di akhir minggu kemarin. Para investor mungkin akan menjauh dari saham2 hingga hari Rabu dan hingga beberapa hal akan menjadi pasti di AS. Hangseng mungkin akan memulai hari ini dibawah 25000 dan mungkin akan jatuh lebih rendah dari 24500 hari ini.

Asian market preview 28/01/2008

US markets ended the volatile week falling on Friday after investors took some of their recent winnings off the tables caused by so many uncertainties coming out of the market. The Dow ended Friday's session 171.44 pts lower or 1.38% to 12207.17, S&P500 lost 21.46 pts or 1.59% to 1330.61 and Nasdaq fell 34.72 pts or 1.47% to 2326.20. There'll be a lot of economic data coming out of the US and also decisions from the Fed and the US government to be made this week. December new home sales will be released on Monday, December durable goods order to be released on Tuesday, first estimate of US' GDP to be announced on Wednesday, December's personal spending to come out on Thursday and on Friday, US manufacturing and employment will tell investors how the economy fared in January. The Fed's rate decision will be announced on Wednesday after they finished the 2-day meeting. Above all these data and decisions, the big question still remains, how risky is the debt on banks' books right now following their bad bets on subprime mortgages?
Asian markets may start the week weaker today following the fall in Wall St on Friday. Investors may want to stay off the stock markets until there are some solid grounds to hold on to such as the Fed's rate decision and the economic data to come out of the US so that the investors can really measure is the US really going to experience recession and how bad is it going to be globally. Commodities markets also going to face some uncertainties following the stock markets; Crude oil recently traded at $90.70ish per barrel, gold at $913ish and JPY at 106.85ish. Nikkei futures settled at 13420 at CME, down from the close of 13690 here on Friday.
The Kospi may experience another volatile week and may start weaker today after Wall St fell on Friday caused by profit taking and uncertainties ahead of the important week in the US. Kospi may start around 211ish and may fall further if more investors want to stay off the stock markets before Wednesday.
Hangseng may open lower today, caused by profit taking on recent sharp gains at the end of last week and may stay week until at least Wednesday should investors want to stay off stock markets until some things are certain from the US. Hangseng may start the day below 25000 and may go even lower than 24500 today.

Asian market review 25/01/2008

Asian markets rallied again today extending their rebound for 3 days in a row after South Korea's economy expanded faster than estimated and the US moved closer to approving tax rebates. MSCI Asia Pacific index climbed 4.4% to 145.59, set for the steepest gain since March 2002. Japan's Nikkei 225 added 4.1% to 13629.16 and the futures rose to 13675 in Singapore at 2.30 PM. JPY fell from 2.5 year high to 107.67 recently. Gold prices also rose to $920ish and crude oil traded at $90ish per barrel.
South Korea's Kospi opened higher today at 215.95 and it didn't move much after the economy showed that it expanded faster than expected from its export to regional countries such as China. Kospi moved relatively flat today going down from its open to 214ish before breaking high near the end of trading at 216.75 and closed the day at 214.80. Kospi moved between 214.05-216.75.
Hangseng opened more than 1000 points higher and it continued its rally, trying to regain its losses in the past week. It opened at 24812 and quickly rally up to 24900ish before retracing down a bit to 24600ish and go back up again to 24900ish. It continued its volatility, retracing back to 24484 before going back up and closed the 1st session at 24837. 2nd session, we see Hangseng opened at 25015, breaking its initial day high and it rally up to 25286 and it played between 24800ish to 25200ish before closed at 25082. Volatility in the market was very high, with moves ranging between 200-400 pts each time and Hangseng was set to be the biggest gainer in the region for this week. Hangseng moved between: 24484-25286.

Asian market preview 25/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS melanjutkan rally mereka semalam setelah paket stimulus yg diajukan oleh presiden Bush mendapatkan lampu hijau oleh congress. Paket itu akan memberikan refund $600-$1200 atau lebih jika para pembayar pajak punya anak. Market juga naik setelah laporan keuangan yg bagus dan tingkat pengangguran menurun ke angka terendah dalam 4 bulan terakhir. Kenaikan dipicu oleh sektor teknologi dan komoditi. Data housing juga memberikan kabar baik, penjualan rumah baru tetap turun tapi ratio persediaan dan permintaan juga mulai menurun. Dow naik 108.44 pts atau 0.88% ke 12378.61, S&P500 naik 13.47 pts atau 1.01% ke 1352.07 dan Nasdaq naik 44.51 pts atau 1.92% ke 2360.92.
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan dibuka menguat lagi hari ini melanjutkan rally mereka dalam 2 hari terakhir setelah Wall St membukukan 2-hari rally terbesar sejak November. Harga emas dan minyak naik semalam dengan emas di $912an, minyak di $89an per barrel dan JPY di 107an. Nikkei futures ditutup di 13280 di CME, naik dari penutupan di 13010 di Osaka dan 13040 di Singapore kemarin.
Kospi mungkin akan dibuka lebih tinggi lagi hari ini dan mungkin akan dibuka di kisaran 216an. Jika investor sudah mendapat konfident lebih banyak, Kospi mungkin akan mencoba level 220 hari ini. Teknologi dan exportir dan financial mungkin akan membantu banyak. Tetapi, volatilitas mungkin masih akan tinggi hari ini khususnya hari ini adalah Jumat dan setelah 2 hari berturut2 naik banyak, investor mungkin akan mengambil aksi profit taking juga.
Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka naik hari ini setelah jatuh lebih dari 2% kemarin. Mungkin akan dibuka di kisaran 24000an dan mungkin akan mencoba level 25000 lagi hari ini. Volatilitas di pasar mungkin akan masih sangat tinggi dan ada kemungkinan juga market akan jatuh lagi jika investor menilai kenaikan baru2 ini terlalu cepat.

Asian market preview 25/01/2008

US markets extend their gains last night after the stimulus package proposed by President Bush gets the green light from congress. The stimulus package would give tax filers refunds of $600 to $1200, and more if they have children. Markets also rose after good earnings report and unemployment benefits claim was at the lowest level in 4 months. Gains were paced by technology and commodities sector. Housing data also brought some good news, new home sales declined again but the ratio of supply and demand is falling. Dow rose 108.44 pts or 0.88% to 12378.61, S&P500 rose 13.47 pts or 1.01% to 1352.07 while Nasdaq advanced 44.51 pts or 1.92% to 2360.92.
Asian markets may open higher again today and extend their 2 days rally after Wall St posted the biggest 2-day rally since November. Gold and oil prices also rose overnight with gold at $912ish, crude oil back at $89ish per barrel and JPY at 107ish. Nikkei futures closed at 13280 in CME, rose from the close of 13010 in Osaka and 13040 in Singapore yesterday.
Kospi may open higher again and may open around 216ish region. If investors have regained back their confidence, Kospi may even test the 220 level today. Technology, exporters and financials may pace gains. However, volatility in the market may still be high today especially being a Friday and after 2-day of sharp gains, investors may take some profit.
Hangseng may open higher today after losing more than 2% yesterday. It may open around 24000 region and may test the 25000 again today. Volatility in the market may still be very high and there's no doubt that the market may lose grounds again if investors judged that recent rally was premature.

Asian market review 24/01/2008

Asian markets rose for 2nd day today after Wall St surged last night. Markets rallied after Dow Jones rallied more than 600 pts to reverse a 300+ pts loss to a 298 pts gain last night. With 11% expansion, China is believed to be able to sustain growth in Asia despite the fear of US recession. The stimulus package is also close to be agreed by congressmen in the US and that also contribute to another day of gains in the equity markets in Asia. Nikkei gained 263.72 pts or 2.06% to 13092.78 and its index was closed at 13045 in Singapore. JPY was recently at 106ish, gold at $890ish and crude oil at $87ish per barrel.
Kospi opened higher at 212.45 today and it went up to 214.10 within 20 mins and it started the volatile market from there. It went back down to 212.65 before going back up to get to its highest at 214.75 within the next hour. It went up and down towards 210.95 and was finally closed at 212.40 for the day. Kospi moved between 210.95-214.75.
Hangseng opened just marginally higher at 24337 and it went to 24400ish before retracing down towards 23800ish level. It went back up and touched its current high at 24937 before lunch break and was closed at 24864 for 1st session. 2nd session saw Hangseng opened lower at 24794 and it went down still to 24600ish before going back up ti 24978. It all went downhill afterwards in a full volatile mode, with moves ranging between 200-500 pts each and finally closed near its lowest at 24635. Hangseng moved today between 23472-24978.

Asian market preview 24/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS benar2 mengalami rollercoaster semalam dengan range lebih dari 600 pts. Dow Jones sempat terjun lebih dari 300 pts di pagi hari sebelum akhirnya rally di menit2 terakhir dan ditutup naik hampir 300 pts. Kenaikan dipicu oleh sektor finansial yg dinilai sudah murah setelah pemangkasan rate dari Fed. Spekulasi bahwa rate pinjaman yg rendah akan mengembalikan confidence ke pasar dan juga keyakinan bahwa Fed akan melakukan lebih banyak lagi pada meeting minggu depan membuat para investor kembali ke pasar. Dow ditutup naik 298.98 pts atau 2.5% ke 12270.17, S&P500 naik 28.10 pts atau 2.14% ke 1338.60 sedangkan Nasdaq naik 24.14 pts atau 1.05% ke 2316.41.
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan dibuka naik lagi hari ini dan melanjutkan rally dari kemarin setelah rally di akhir sesi di Wall St semalam. Para investor mungkin akan lebih yakin setelah finansial sektor naik di As dan mereka mungkin akan mulai invest di pasar2 Asia juga. Harga minyak mentah jatuh ke terendah dalam 3 bulan terakhir ke $87.80an per barrel, emas ada di $890.50an dan JPY di 106.50an setelah sempat jatuh ke 105.10 semalam. Nikkei futures ditutup di 13050 di CME, naik dari penutupan kemarin 12860 di Osaka dan 12770 di Singapore.
Kospi mungkin akan dibuka naik dan lari lagi hari ini. Earnings dari LG electronics mungkin juga akan membantu pasar. Saham2 yg berhubungan dengan Apple Inc mungkin akan jatuh hari ini setelah saham tersebut jatuh lebih dari $16 semalam. Kospi mungkin akan buka di 213an dan mungkin akan naik hingga 218an tergantung seberapa confident para pelaku pasar disana.
Hangseng mungkin akan lompat lagi hari ini dan melanjutkan lari 11% kemarin, yg membuat Hangseng naik terbesar di Asia. Sektor finansial dan exportir mungkin akan dapat boost hari ini setelah makin banyak confident masuk di Wall St. Hangseng mungkin akan buka di 24700an dan mungkin akan mencoba level 25000 hari ini, tapi volatilitas pasar mungkin akan sangat tinggi dengan kenaikan dan terjun yg sangat besar gapnya beberapa hari terakhir.

Asian market preview 24/01/2008

The US markets were in one wild ride overnight with trading range of more than 600 points. The Dow lost more than 300 pts in the morning before rallying in the last minute and closed almost 300 pts higher. Gains were paced by financial companies which was seen to be outperformed after the Fed's rate cut. Speculation on lower borrowing costs will restore confidence in the financial system and also that the Fed will do more during their meeting next week made investors and bargain hunters come back into the equity markets. Dow ended higher by 298.98 pts or 2.5% to 12270.17, S&P500 gained 28.10 pts or 2.14% to 1338.60 while Nasdaq rose 24.14 pts or 1.05% to 2316.41.
Asian markets may open higher and may continue the rally from yesterday after the last minute comeback rally on Wall St overnight. Investors may be more confident after financial sectors rose in the US and they may start investing more in the Asian markets too. Crude oil price fell again overnight, recently priced at $87.80ish per barrel, gold at $890.50ish and JPY at 106.50ish after falling to as low as 105.10 last night. Nikkei futures closed at 13050 at CME, higher than yesterday's close of 12860 in Osaka and 12770 in Singapore.
The Kospi may open higher and may follow up on its rally from yesterday. Earnings from LG electronics may also boost the market as more confidence in investors are pouring in. Stocks related to Apple Inc may drop today after the share dropped more than $16 overnight. Kospi may open in the 213ish region and may rose to as high as 218ish depending on how confident are the investors in South Korea.
Hangseng may open higher again today following the 11% surge yesterday, making it the biggest gainer in the region. Financial sectors and exporters may get a boost today after more confidence are restored on Wall St. Hangseng may open in the 24700ish region and may even try the 25000 level today, but market volatility may be very high with the sharp rise and declines in recent days.

Asian market review 23/01/2008

Asian markets rebounded today after the worst 2-day selloff in 18 years following the rate cut made by the Fed last night. Gains were paced by financials and mining companies. Nikkei added 256.01 pts or 2.04% to 12829.06 and its futures rose to 12900 in Osaka. MSCI Asia Pacific index added 3.5% to 136.65 after dropping 10% in the past 2 days.
Kospi opened higher today at 210.05 and it kept on rising higher to as high as 211.90 within the next 1hr. After that, it retraces back and it was in a rolloercoaster ride swinging between 150-300 pts each time. It reached as low as 205.15 before closed higher at 208.80 today. The gains were paced by banks, Samsung and Hyundai Heavy after being battered in the past week. Kospi moved between 205.15-211.90.
Hangseng opened higher by almost 1500 pts today at 23274 and it went higher still to 23400ish before retracing back down towards 22670 and it goes up and down and closed at 22934 in 1st session. 2nd session we saw Hangseng opened much higher at 23287 and it went up further with no turning back, only occassionally retracing 100-200 pts. It went as high as 24326 and was closed at 24219 making it the biggest gainer in the Asian region. Hangseng moved between 22670-24326.

Asian market preview 23/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS jatuh untuk hari ke-5 semalam seiring dengan jatuhnya pasar2 global. The Fed secara mengejutkan, memangkas suku bunga sebesar 0.75% dari 4.25% ke 3.5% dan ini membuat Wall St jatuh tidak terlalu banyak dibandingkan pada waktu pembukaan market. Dow kehilangan hampir 500 pts sebelum akhirnya melakukan rebound dan ditutup hanya jatuh 128.11 pts atau 1.06% ke 11971.19, S&P500 jatuh 14.69 pts atau 1.11% ke 1310.50 dan Nasdaq jatuh 47.75 pts atau 2.04% ke 2292.27. Sektor finansial mendapatkan rebound yg cukup bagus, tetapi banyak komentar telah dikeluarkan mengenai pemangkasan suku bunga dari the Fed semalam. Beberapa analis mengatakan Fed melakukan aksi ini sedikit telat untuk menyelamatkan ekonomi dari resesi tapi dengan pemangkasan ini menunjukan bahwa the Fed dapat beraksi jika mereka benar2 dibutuhkan oleh market untuk membantu perekonomian. Aksi lebih banyak diharapkan oleh the Fed saat mereka bertemu minggu lalu. Pemangkasan ini dinilai sebagai bantuan sementara karena masalah2 yg lebih besar tetap ada di sana seperti masalah housing dan aksi ini akan memerlukan waktu agak lama untuk memberikan dampak yg signifikan terhadap ekonomi. Investor perlu melihat earnings2 yg solid di beberapa bulan ke depan untuk membuat full recovery.
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan dibuka menguat hari ini dan mungkin akan rebound dari penjualan besar2an selama 2 hari terakhir setelah the Fed memangkas suku bunga sebesar 75 basis point semalam. Volatilitas market masih akan tinggi hari ini karena para investor masih sedikit khawatir dan emosi masih akan memainkan peranan besar di situasi seperti ini dan akan mendominasi pasar dibandingkan rasionalisme dan analisis. Minyak mentah jatuh semalam, di trade baru2 ini di kisaran $89.10an per barrel, emas di $890.30an dan JPY di 106.52. Nikkei futures ditutup di 13080 di CME semalam, naik dibandingkan penutupan 12540 di Osaka dan 12675 di Singapore kemarin.
Kospi mungkin akan memulai hari ini naik untuk pertama kalinya minggu ini dan mungkin akan rebound dari jatuh selama 2 hari terakhir. Aksi the Fed mungkin akan membawa sedikit sentiment positif ke pasar tapi kita hrs melihat seberapa besar confident investor seiring dengan aksi ini. Untuk benar2 bangkit dari penurunan yg signifikan selama 2 minggu terakhir, akan membutuhkan waktu lebih lama dan lebih daripada Pemangkasan rate.
Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka naik seiring dengan pasar2 lainnya setelah Fed memberikan sedikit udara segar untuk para investor. Tapi untuk jangka panjang, volatilitas market masih akan tinggi karena para investor menilai penurunan suku bunga tidak akan cukup untuk membantu ekonomi di AS untuk benar2 kembali seperti semula.

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Asian market preview 23/01/2008

US markets fell for 5th day last night following the 2 day losses in global equity markets. The Fed have made a surprise move last night, cutting rate by 0.75% from 4.25% to 3.5% and this has pared Wall St earlier bigger loss in the day. Dow have lost nearly 500 pts before rebounding up and ended the day losing 128.11 pts or 1.06% to 11971.19, S&P500 lost 14.69 pts or 1.11% to 1310.50 while Nasdaq fell 47.75 pts or 2.04% to 2292.27. Financial sectors have rebounded nicely after this action but mixed comments have been said regarding the Fed's surprise bigger-than-expected rate cut overnight. Some said that the Fed have acted much too late to save the economy from going into recession but on the other hand, by doing this, the Fed showed that they can act when it's needed by the market to help the economy. Further action is expected during the Fed's meeting next week. This however is said to be just a temporary relief as housing problems remains and the action will take longer to have any solid impact on the market. Investors need to see solid earnings and growth in the coming months to really make a full recovery for the markets.
Asian markets may open higher today and may rebound from its worst 2-day selloff following the Fed's 75 basis points rate cut overnight. Market volatility may still be high as investors may still be quite nervous and emotions are still flying high in this situation and may dominate the markets instead of rationality and analysis. Crude oil fell overnight, traded recently around $89.10ish per barrel, gold at $890.30 and JPY traded at 106.52. Nikkei futures closed at 13080 in CME overnight, higher than the close of 12540 in Osaka and 12675 in Singapore yesterday.
The Kospi may start the day higher for the 1st time this week and may rebound from its losses in the past 2 days. The Fed's rate cut may bring some positive sentiment into the market but we'll have to see how much confidence will investors get with this move by the Fed. To completely recover from the steep losses in the past 2 weeks, it will take some time and more than just a Fed's rate cut.
Hangseng may open higher following the Fed's rate cut which will bring some temporary relief for some investors and they may want to invest more money into the stock markets in short term. For longer term, it'll need more than just a Fed's rate cut as investors want to see solid earnings and signs that the economy is actually recovering.

For price predictions, please contact me

Asian market review 22/01/2008

Yet another rough session happened here in Asia with markets generally lost 5-7% throughout the region. Every markets here in Asia are in the red today. Volatility in the markets are high and commodities prices also dropped today with gold back around $860ish and crude oil at $86ish per barrel. Nikkei index fell 752.89 pts or 5.65% to 12573.05 and its Nikkei futures dropped to 12510 in Osaka.
Kospi opened almost 1000 pts lower at 205.50 and it went up a bit to 207ish before going back down to 204ish. It went back up again to its highest at 209.15 before plunging to its lowest at 202.40 and closed the day at 204.85. Volatility was high again today with movements ranging from 150-400 pts each chance. Exporters were battered again today and stocks like Samsung, Hyundai Heavy and Posco dropped to lowest this year. Kospi moved between 202.40-209.15.
Hangseng opened lower at 22971, which strongly indicated a bear market is here. It went straight down towards the 22200ish level before it went back up to 22700ish and it went back down to close the 1st session at 21925. It started 2nd session opening lower at 21702 and it went as low as 21599 before going back up to 22500ish and went back down again in the highly volatile market. It kept breaking low and it reached as low as 21516 before closed at 21798. Hangseng moved between 21516-22995 in a highly volatile market with market movements ranging between 200-500 pts each chance.

Asian market preview 22/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS ditutup semalam, tetapi futures market disana menunjukan bahwa market masih akan melanjutkan penjualan. Dow futures turun sebanyak 522 pts ke 11584, S&P500 turun 60.20 pts ke 1265.10 dan Nasdaq turun 76 pts ke 1773.50. Para investor khawatir tentang resesi yang kelihatannya tidak dapat dihindarkan.
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan dibuka melemah lagi dan mungkin akan jatuh lebih dalam lagi dari penutupan kemarin. Teknikal rebound sebenarnya harus terjadi, tapi di saat2 seperti ini, terlalu banyak investor yg masih khawatir dan tidak yakin tentang perekonomian global dan mungkin rebound akan mengambil waktu lebih lama. Banyak analis mengatakan bahwa resesi di AS mungkin akan membawa dampak yg tidak terlalu besar ke Asia. Harga minyak dan emas juga jatuh dengan kekhawatiran bahwa resesi di AS akan membuat org2 tidak ingin membeli komoditi. Minyak ada di $88.60an per barrel, emas di $866 dan JPY ada di 105.75 baru2 ini. Nikkei futures di Osaka ditutup di 13080 dan di Singapore di 12890.
Kospi mungkin akan dibuka lebih rendah lagi hari ini dan mungkin akan hilang points lebih banyak di pasar yg mempunyai volatiliatas tinggi. Secara teknikal rebound akan terjadi tapi dengan banyaknya sentimen negatif, rebound ini mungkin akan mengambil waktu yg lama. Banyak orang percaya bahwa harga2 saham sudah menjadi sangat murah sekarang dan ini merupakan waktu yg tepat untuk membangun portofolio mereka untuk 2008, tapi masih banyak juga yg percaya bahwa yg terburuk masih belum kelihatan.
Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka lebih rendah dan akan jatuh lagi hari ini. Koreksi ke area 20000 mungkin akan terjadi, para analis percaya. Laporan dari Citigroup di Hong Kong hari Senin menunjukan bahwa penjualan terburuk masih belum terjadi, karena sejak market koreksi, total penjualan hanya $3.4 milliar vs. $4.9 milliar di market koreksi Juni 2006 dan $4.5 milliar bulan Maret tahun lalu. Laporan tersebut juga mengatakan bahwa outflows mungkin akan mencapai $8 milliar sebelum market rebound.

Untuk prediksi2 harga saya, silahkan contact saya dan saya akan dengan senang menjawab.

Asian market preview 22/01/2008

The US markets were closed last night. However, all the futures indicated that the markets are still going to the downside. Dow futures were off by 522 pts to 11584, S&P500 off by 60.20 pts to 1265.10 while Nasdaq was downed by 76 pts to 1773.50. Investors are worried about the recession that's seem inevitable to avoid.
Asian markets may open lower again today and may even fall further from yesterday's close. Technical rebound logically would happen, but in this case, there's too many investors who are still very nervous and uncertain regarding the global economy that a rebound may take longer to happen than usual. Many analysts have said that US' recession may have limited impact on Asian region as the countries in Asia have relied less on the US in recent years. Crude oil and gold also decline on recession fears will lessen people's buying power. Oil at $88.60ish per barrel, gold at $866 and JPY at 105.75 recently. Nikkei futures in Osaka was closed at 13080 while in Singapore, Nikkei futures closed down at 12890.
The Kospi may open lower today and may lose more points in a highly volatile market. Technically, the market is bound to have a rebound soon, but it is most likely won't happen anytime soon if regional negative sentiment still reigned supreme. Many believed that stocks are quite cheap now and it's a good time to build their portfolios for 2008, but there's also many believed that the worst is still yet to come.
Hangseng may open further lower and may shed more points today. A correction to the 20000 level is likely to happen, some of analysts believe. A report from Citigroup in Hong Kong Monday indicated that the worst selling off may yet to be seen, since total selling to date is $3.4 billion vs. $4.9 billion in market correction in June 2006 and $4.5 billion in March last year. The report also said that outflows may reach $8 billion before market rebound.

For my price predictions for today, do not hesitate to contact me and I'll gladly answer in anyway I can.

Asian market review 21/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di Asia terjun hari ini dan kelihatan akan menjadi start yg buruk lagi untuk minggu ini melanjutkan penurunan yg terjadi minggu lalu. Penurunan di pasar2 Asia disebabkan oleh para invstor yg pesimist bahwa AS akan tetap masuk resesi meskipun pemerintah berencana untuk menyuntik lebih $150 milliar bantuan untuk menghindari resesi. Nikkei jatuh 3.9% ke 13325.94 dah Nikkei futures jatuh ke 13310. Pasar2 di AS akan tutup malam ini untuk liburan tetapi futures untuk Dow sudah jatuh lebih dari 200 pts baru2 ini.
Kospi dibuka jatuh ke 219.45 hari ini dan jatuh terus kebawah dengan fluktuasi pasar antara 100-200 pts. Tetapi, sentiment2 negatif dari para investor terus mendorong Kospi kebawah dan sempat menyentuh 213.25 sebelum ditutup di 214.90. Kospi bergerak antara: 213.25-219.55. Para analist menganggap pasar2 di Asia sudah masuk oversold dan kemungkinan rebound sangat mungkin meskipun volatilitas di pasar masih sangat tinggi untuk beberapa minggu kedepan. Saya sempat ambil BUY hari ini di 217.40 dan saya cut loss.
Hangseng dibuka jatuh ke 24473 dan sempat naik sedikit ke 24687 sebelum akhirnya terjun bebas 1000 pts sepanjang hari. Volatilitas pasar sangat tinggi hari ini dengan pergerakan antara 150-250 pts. Sesi 1 Hangseng ditutup di 24509. Sesi 2, kita lihat Hangseng dibuka di 24276 dan masih terus kebawah sampai menyentuh 23596 sebelum market ditutup di 23602. Saya sempat mendapat SELL di sesi 2 dan membukukan profit yg lumayan untuk menutup kehilangan di Kospi pagi tadi.

Asian market review 21/01/2008

Asian markets tumbled today in a chaotic start to the week extending the fall on Friday. The decline in Asian markets are caused by the pessimism of investors that the US is still going to have a recession despite Bush's plan to inject some $150 billion stimulus plan to avoid recession. Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.9% to 13325.94 and its futures dropped to 13310. US markets will be closed tonight for holidays but the futures for Dow have declined more than 200 pts recently.
The Kospi opened the day lower at 219.45 and it went down further with market fluctuation between 100-200 pts each time. However, negative sentiment from investors keep pushing Kospi lower and it went as low as 213.25 before closing at 214.90. Kospi moved between: 213.25-219.55. Analysts have said that the market has been oversold and a rebound is likely to happen though volatility in the market may still be quite high for the next few weeks to months. I did have a BUY today at 217.40 and I cut Loss.
Hangseng opened lower at 24473 and it retraces back up a bit up to 24687 before finally plunging more than 1000 pts during the day. Market volatility was high today with movements between 150-250 pts. 1st session saw Hangseng closed at 24509. 2nd session, we saw Hangseng opened lower at 24276 and it went down further to as low as 23596 before the market closed at 23602. I did manage to get a SELL for 2nd session at 24256 today and get quite a nice profit to cover my earlier Kospi loss today.

Asian market preview 21/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar di AS turun lagi hari Jumat setelah investor menilai bahwa paket bantuan dari pemerintah sebesar $150 milliar tidak cukup untuk membantu AS keluar dari resesi. Pasar2 sempat mengalami rally di pagi hari, naik 300an pts untuk Dow setelah laporan2 yg manis dari IBM dan AMD memberikan nilai positif untuk market. Dow jatuh 59.91 pts atau 0.41% membuat minggu lalu kehilangan 4.02% ke 12099.30, S&P500 jatuh 8.06 pts atau 0.6% membuat minggu lalu kehilangan 5.41% ke 1325.19 dan Nasdaq jatuh 6.88 pts atau 0.29% membuat minggu lalu jatuh 4.10% ke 2340.02. Volatilitas masih diperkirakan akan tinggi di beberapa minggu ke depan, dengan saham2 jatuh dari laporan keuangan sektor finansial dan bargain hunters datang membeli saham2 dengan earnings2 bagus seperti Microsoft, Pfizer, AT&T, Caterpillar, Honeywell dan Johnson & Johnson. Bank2 yg akan mengeluarkan laporan mereka minggu ini adalah Bank of America dan Wachovia Corp. yang akan mengakibatkan penurunan lagi untuk pasar2 di AS.
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan dibuka turun lagi hari ini setelah pasar2 di AS jatuh lagi hari Jumat. Dengan AS menuju resesi, pasar2 global menjadi khawatir dan membuat investor jadi susah untuk menyimpan saham2 utk jangka waktu panjang sekarang. Laporan2 yg bagus untuk beberapa negara Asia mungkin akan membantu market, tapi laporan2 ini tidak cukup untuk mendorong market dengan banyaknya berita buruk yg keluar dari AS. Harga2 komoditi stabil tapi masih tetap tinggi, dengan minyak mentah ada di kisaran $90.50an per barrel, emas di $884.20an dan JPY di 106.70an. Nikkei futures ditutup di 13575 di CME, turun dari penutupan 13690 di Osaka dan 13670 di Singapore.
Kospi mungkin akan dibuka lebih rendah daripada penutupan Jumat. Kospi mungkin akan turun lagi hari ini, tapi kemungkinan tidak akan terlalu banyak. Kospi melakukan rally naik hari Jumat tapi para investor yg khawatir mungkin akan keluar dari pasar lagi hari ini, karena mereka masih takut akan banyaknya berita2 buruk yg akan keluar dari AS. Pasar2 di AS akan tutup hari ini, dan mungkin ini akan menjadi pemicu kenaikan jika para investor ingin mencari profit cepat. Volatiliatas market mungkin akan masih tetap tinggi dan ini adalah berita yg baik untuk kita para day traders.
Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka turun lagi hari ini setelah penurunan di Wall St hari Jumat. Kenaikan Hangseng hari Jumat mungkin akan dipangkas lagi dan mungkin akan menyebabkan volatilitas di market. Hari libur di AS nanti malam mungkin akan memicu para day traders untuk memburu saham2 murah untuk menutupi kerugian2 mereka selama ini.

Untuk prediksi2 harga hari ini, silahkan contact saya karena saya tidak diperbolehkan untuk menaruh prediksi2 harga di blog ini.

Asian market preview 21/01/2008

The US markets slid again on Friday after government plan of $150 billion stimulus package to revive the economy is seen to be not quite enough to help the US came out of recession by investors. Markets did have a nice rally early in the morning, rose as much as 300 pts for the Dow after earnings from IBM and AMD put some confidence back into the market. The Dow fell 59.91 pts or 0.41% making a weekly drop of 4.02% to 12099.30, S&P500 dropped 8.06 pts or 0.6% making a weekly drop of 5.41% to 1325.19 while Nasdaq declined 6.88 pts or 0.29% making a weekly drop of 4.10% to 2340.02. Volatility are expected to still be high in the coming week or so, with stocks dropping with bad financials report and bargain hunters kicking in with big companies' good earnings such as Microsoft, Pfizer, AT&T, Caterpillar, Honeywell and Johnson & Johnson. More banks to report their earnings this week such as Bank of America and Wachovia Corp. may cause more turmoil in the market.
Asian markets may open lower again today after another drop in the US markets on Friday. With the US heading for recession, global markets are feeling very nervous and it's hard for investors to stay long for stocks right now. Good earnings report in some Asian countries may help to boost markets, but these reports are not enough to keep the gains as more bad news keep coming out of the US. Commodities prices is going steady but are still on the high, crude oil priced recently at $90.50ish per barrel, gold at $884.20 and JPY at 106.70ish. Nikkei futures closed at 13575 in CME, down from the close of 13690 here in Osaka and 13670 in Singapore.
The Kospi may open lower again today after another loss in the US. Kospi may have yet to give up their gains again but this time, I don't think it will fall too far. Kospi completed a nice reversal rally on Friday but nervous investors may have to go out of the game as they fear for more bad news coming out of the US. Some note to be taken notice is that the US markets will be closed tonight for holiday. Market volatility may still be high and this is still good news for day traders.
Hangseng may open lower again today after a mild drop on Wall St on Friday. Gains for Hangseng on Friday may be reduced today and this may cause more volatility in the market. With public holiday in the US later tonight, investors may take some action for quick profits today and tomorrow, while waiting and preparing for more bad news to come out of the US.

For today's price predictions, do not hesitate to contact me as I'm not allowed to post price predictions on this blog.

Asian market review 18/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Kebanyakan pasar2 di Asia hari ini secara mengejutkan mengakhiri trading harian ini naik dibandingkan dari penutupan kemarin setelah sesi yg penuh dengan volatilitas. Nikkei ditutup naik 0.6% ke 13861.29 dan Nikkei futures di Osaka ditutup di 13790 setelah menyentuh harga terendah harian di 13345. Pasar2 di Asia dibuka terjun bebas setelah penutupan yg sangat jelek di AS semalam yg mengakibatkan Dow kehilangan lebih dari 300 pts. MSCI Asia Pacidic Index hanya bergerak sedikit di 146.74 setelah kehilangan 2.6% di pagi hari. Rally di daerah ini dipicu oleh teknologi dan juga property developer di Jepang. Penjualan yg sudah dinilai terlalu banyak juga menjadi penopang kenaikan karena rebound sudah ada di depan mata.
Kospi dibuka jatuh ke 215.15 dan sempat turun lebih dalam ke 214.75 sebelum melakukan rally naik, meskipun Kospi mengalami pergerakan naik, turun yg cukup banyak. Jarak antara pergerakan Kospi kurang lebih 200 pts setiap kali gerak. Kospi lari lagi menjelang akhir perdagangan dan menyentuh harga tertinggi di 221.90 sebelum menutup sesi hari ini di 221.25. Samsung Electronics membantu rally dan juga para pencari saham murah membantu Kospi melanjutkan kenaikan kemarin. Kospi bergerak antara: 214.75-221.90.
Hangseng dibuka jauh lebih rendah daripada yg saya perkirakan di 24319 dan saya sempat dapat BUY di 24268 untuk mendapatkan profit yg cukup asik disini. Pergerakan Hangseng jauh lebih volatile hari ini dengan pergerakan yg mencapai 300 pts setiap kali. Hangseng naik dari harga terendah dia di 24161 dan mentutup sesi 1 di 24858. Sesi 2 Hangseng dibuka di 25088 dan saya sempat mendapatkan BUY lagi di 25060 untuk mendapat profit ke-2 saya hari ini. Hangseng naik hingga menyentuh harga tertinggi di 25377 sebelum ditutup hari ini di 24926. Hangseng bergerak antara: 24161-25377.

Asian market review 18/01/2008

Most Asian markets surprisingly ended the day higher after a very volatile session here in Asia. Nikkei ended the day 0.6% higher at 13861.29 and its futures rose to 13790 in Osaka after earlier declining to as low as 13345. Asian markets were opened lower today after a turbulent session in the US causing the Dow to lose more than 300 pts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little change at 146.74 after losing as much as 2.6% earlier. Rally in the region was led by technology and Japanese property developers. Heavy selling was seen for the past few days and some kind of rebound is tend to happen.
Kospi opened lower at 215.15 and it went down further to as low as 214.75 before it started its rally up, although it experienced ups and downs in a very volatile session. Each curve ups and downs can get up to 200 pts each time. Kospi rally further towards the end of the session to get to its peak at 221.90 before ending the session at 221.25. Samsung Electronics paced gains and also some bargain hunters also helped the market to extend its gains from yesterday. Kospi moved between 214.75-221.90.
Hangseng opened much lower than I anticipated at 24319 and I did get a BUY at 24268 and get quite a nice profit here today. Hangseng was more volatile today with movements of up to 300 pts for each curve. Hangseng rose up from its lowest of 24161 and closed the 1st session at 24858. 2nd session saw Hangseng opened at 25088 and I did manage to get another BUY at 25060 to get my 2nd profit today. Hangseng rose to as high as 25377 before closing the day at 24926. Hangseng moved between 24161-25377 today.

Asian market preview 18/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS terjun bebas semalam di start terburuk untuk masuk tahun lebih dari 20 tahun terakhir. Semalam, pasar2 di AS bahkan membukukan penurunan terparah tahun ini dimana Dow jatuh lebih dari 300 pts. Market sempat dibuka naik sedikit, tapi dengan cepat turun kebawah setelah Philadelphia Federeal Reserve melaporkan general economic index jatuh ke angka -20.9, terendah sejak October 2001, dari -1.6 di December. Ini menambah keyakinan bahwa AS sudah masuk dalam resesi. Housing starts juga jatuh 14%, terendah sejak 1991 dan Merril Lynch melaporkan kerugian $9.91 milliar membukukan earnings Q4 terparah sepanjang sejarah perusahaan tersebut. Dow jatuh 306.95 pts atau 2.46% ke 12159.21, S&P500 terjun 39.95 pts atau 2.91% ke 1333.25 dan Nasdaq jatuh 47.69 pts atau 1.99% ke 2346.90. Bernanke menyatakan bahwa bantuan keuangan hingga $150 milliar mungkin akan membantu pertumbuhan ekonomi dan setelah semua laporan buruk ini, investor diyakinkan bahwa Fed akan memangkas rate sedikitnya 0.5%. IBM membukukan laporan yg cukup bagus dengan kenaikan profit sedangkan AMD membukukan loss di laporannya.
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan dibuka jatuh lagi kebawah hari ini dan mungkin harus menghapus kenaikan kemarin. Kekhawatiran bahwa AS sudah masuk ke daerah resesi mungkin akan memberi dampak yg cukup besar di Asia khususnya untuk negara2 dan perusahaan2 yg mempunyai relasi dekat dengan AS melalui ekspor. Saham2 mungkin akan cukup susah untuk naik hari ini dengan banyaknya faktor negatif. Harga minyak juga ikut jatuh kebawah $90 semalam dengan kekhawatiran demand untuk minyak akan menurun jika resesi sudah terjadi. Minyak mentah ada di $89.80an per barrel, emas ada di $877an dan JPY kembali di kisaran 106.50an. Nikkei futures ditutup di 13345 di CME semalam, jatuh dari penutupan 13730 di Osaka dan 13710 di Singapura kemarin.
Kospi mungkin akan dibuka jatuh hari ini seiring dengan rontoknya bursa2 di AS semalam. Eksportir dan keuangan mungkin akan terkena dampak besar dan teknologi sektor juga mungkin akan kena. Investors juga mungkin akan melakukan sedikit profit taking dari kenaikan kemarin. Volatilitas mungkin akan sangat tinggi lagi hari ini dengan penurunan yg tajam dan juga para bargain hunters akan mencari saham2 murah untuk di collect di saat2 seperti ini.
Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka dibawah lagi hari ini seiring dengan jatuhnya bursa2 AS lebih dari 2% semalam. Para invstor mungkin juga akan mengambil uang2 mereka dan melarikan ke bidang investasi lainnya yg lebih aman. Volatitilas mungkin akan tinggi lagi dengan penurunan tajam yg diperkirakan terjadi di pembukaan tapi juga para investor mungkin akan memulai mengcollect saham2 murah. Hangseng mungkin akan kehilangan kenaikan kemarin dan juga mungkin akan jatuh kebawah 24000 jika tidak ada berita positif yg membantu pasar.

Prediksi2 harga tidak saya masukkan lagi dan jika anda ingin mengetahui tentang prediksi2 harga saya, silahkan hubungi saya langsung. Terima Kasih.

Asian market preview 18/01/2008

US markets tumbled again overnight in the worst start to a year in more than 20 years. It even had the worst fall so far this year with Dow losing more than 300 pts. Markets did opened slightly higher but quickly turned south after Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its general economic index declined to -20.9, the lowest since October 2001, from -1.6 in December. This added to a growing conviction that the US is in a recession. Housing starts also decreased 14%, its lowest since 1991. Marril Lynch also reported a loss of $9.91 billion marking its worst Q4 ever. Dow lost 306.95 pts or 2.46% to 12159.21, S&P500 declined 39.95 pts or 2.91% to 1333.25 while Nasdaq fell 47.69 pts or 1.99% to 2346.90. Bernanke even said that a fiscal stimulus of as much as $150 billion would help revive economic growth and all these bad economic reports have made almost certain that the Fed will cut 0.5% rate to deal with the problem. Meanwhile, IBM reported a much better gains than forecast and AMD reported a loss in their Q4 reports.
Asian markets may open lower again today and may have to give up their gains from yesterday. Mounting fears of recession and with some investors said that recession is already underway in the US may affect the global market especially Asia and those companies with close ties to the US through export. It will be very hard for stocks to climb today with so much downward pressure and with if the US is in a recession, the world's economy will be much affected from it. Crude oil also declined last night to $89.80ish per barrel, gold was around $877ish and JPY is back around 106.50ish. Nikkei futures closed at 13345 in CME overnight, downed about 2.6% from the close of 13730 in Osaka and 13710 in Singapore yesterday.
The Kospi may open lower today following the tumble in the US markets ovenight. Exporters and financials maybe hit hard again today with the fears of recession in the US. Technology sectors may also be affected and some profit taking may happen after a decent gains from yesterday. Kospi may give up all of yesterday's gain where the market was closed more than 1% higher at around 218.95. Volatility maybe high again today with steep losses but there maybe some bargain hunters who will buy shares at bargain prices at this stage.
Hangseng may open lower today after US markets lost more than 2% overnight. Investors may also take their money off the table after a nice gains of more than 2% yesterday. Recession fears will make investors flee with their money right now and seek safe haven. Volatility maybe high again with steep losses are expected at the open but there's also investors who would buy cheap stocks. Hangseng may have to give up yesterday's gains and may also fall under 24000 if there's no positive sentiment in the market today.

There'll be no more price predictions posted here on blog, and if you require it, please do not hesitate to contact me directly.

Asian market review 17/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di Asia akhirnya mendapatkan rebound yg cukup bagus hari ini. Market2 besar di kawasan Asia naik kecuali untuk Cina yg meneruskan penurunan dari kemarin setelah pemerintah menaikan kembali suku bunga di negara tersebut. MSCI Asia Pacific Index naik 1% ke 146.42, menghentikan penurunan 4.7% dalam 2 hari terakhir. Nikkei naik 2.1% ke 13783.45 dan futuresnya naik ke 13730. Market2 sudah dalam area oversold dan rebound memang sudah dapat diperkirakan terjadi.
Kospi dibuka di 219.95 dan naik terus ke 220.75 sebelum terjun ke arah 215.70. Kospi bergerak di kisaran 215.70-220.75 dan ditutup di 218.95, menghentikan 3 hari penurunan berturut2. Rally ditunjang oleh Samsung Electronics setelah memprediksikan kenaikan profit dari LCD monitor dan setelah Merril Lynch menaikan rekomendasi atas Samsung.
Hangseng dibuka di 24800 dan mengalami rollercoaster, turun sedikit dan naik sedikit ke 24900an sebelum terjun 1000 pts ke 23976 dan naik kembali untuk ditutup di 24400 di sesi 1. Sesi 2 kita lihat Hangseng dibuka di 24669 dan terus naik, memecahkan target harga saya di pagi hari dan ditutup di 25085. Hangseng bergerak di antara: 23976-25416 dan volatilitas market sangat tinggi.

Asian market review 17/01/2008

Asian markets have quite a nice rebound today. Every markets in the region rose except for China which extends its losses from yesterday after Central Bank in China increased their interest rate yet again. MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1% to 146.42, halting a 2-day 4.7% drop in Tokyo. Nikkei rose 2.1% to 13783.45 and its index rose to 13730. Markets were oversold and a rebound tends to happen in situation like this.
The Kospi opened at 219.95 and it rose further to 220.75 before plunging down along with Hangseng to its lowest at 215.70. Kospi moved between 215.70-220.75 and was closed at 218.95, breaking its 3 days losing streak. Rally was supported by Samsung Electronics on higher profit from LCD displays and after Merril Lynch increased its rating.
Hangseng opened at 24800 and it went on a rollercoaster, dropping slightly and rising to 24900ish before plunging down 1000 points to 23976 and it went back up to close the 1st session at 24400. 2nd session saw Hangseng opened at 24669 and it rose further, breaking my morning target price estimate and closed at 25085. Hangseng moved between 23976-25416 in a very volatile market today.

Asian market preview 17/01/2008

Mohon maaf atas posting yg terlambat karena saya terkena masalah internet dirumah.

Pasar2 di AS melanjutkan penurunan lagi semalam setelah sesi dengan volatilitas yg tinggi. Pasar2 sempat melakukan rally setelah laporan dari JP Morgan Chase & Co. dan Wells Fargo & Co. yang agak bagus dibandingkan perkiraan semula dan juga setelah CPI dan core inflation data keluar agak lembek. Sektor teknologi juga turun banyak setelah laporan dari Intel juga dibawah rata2. Dow jatuh 34.95 pts atau 0.3%, S&P500 jatuh 7.75 pts atau 0.4% dan Nasdaq jatuh 23 pts atau 1%.

Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan dibuka agak turun lagi hari ini, melanjutkan terjun selama seminggu terakhir. Tetapi, mungkin akan ada chance untuk rebound hari ini di beberapa pasar Asia karena mereka sudah cukup terpukul parah di beberapa sesi terakhir. Minyak mentah dan emas juga jatuh semalam di AS. Minyak mentah di trade di harga $91an per barrel, emas di $877an dan USD naik lawan JPY di 107an.

Kospi mungkin akan dibuka lebih rendah lagi hari ini, tapi chance untuk teknikal rebound mungkin akan terjadi hari ini setelah Kospi jatuh 3 hari berturut2 minggu ini. Kospi mungkin akan dibuka di kisaran 218-219an dan mungkin akan kembali main diatas 220 hari ini. Kospi mungkin akan bergerak di antara: 216an-222an. Volatilitas diperkirakan akan tinggi lagi hari ini dengan para investor yg merasa tidak nyaman akan tetap menjauhi pasar saham hari ini dan mereka juga masih menunggu laporan dari Merril Lynch malam nanti.

Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka lebih rendah sedikit hari ini setelah penutupan yg lembek di AS semalam. Tetapi, teknikal rebound mungkin akan terjadi hari ini setelah Hangseng jeblok lebih dari 5% kemarin dan jatuh ke bawah level 25000. Para investor yg nervous mungkin masih akan mendominasi market hari ini karena pasar masih menanti lebih banyak kabar dari AS dan juga dari laporan Merril Lynch yg akan keluar malam nanti. Volatilitas mungkin akan tinggi hari ini dan sesi perdagangan mungkin akan mengalami rollercoaster lagi. Hangseng mungkin akan bergerak antara: 24600an-25200an.

Asian market preview 17/01/2008

Sorry for the late post as I have internet connection problem at home.

US markets extend losses last night after another wild and volatile session. The markets did have some rally after CPI and core inflation data came out rather mild and also after JP Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. gave out a better-than-expected results. Technology sector did take a beating overnight after Intel earnings disappoint. The Dow fell 34.95 pts or 0.28%, S&P500 fell 7.75 or 0.56% while Nasdaq fell 23 pts or 0.95%.

Asian markets may open slightly lower again today, extending the losses for the past week. However, there might be a chance for a rebound today in some Asian markets as they have taken quite a beating in the past few sessions. Crude oil and gold prices fell overnight in US trading. Crude oil was recently at $91ish per barrel, gold at $877ish and USD gained some grounds against JPY to 107ish.

The Kospi may open slightly lower again, but there may be technical rebound happening today after Kospi fell 3 days in a row this week. Kospi may open around 218-219ish and it may go back above 220 again today. Kospi may move between: 216ish-222ish. Volatility is expected to be high again today with nervous investors may stay out of the market, waiting for earnings report from Merril Lynch tonight.

Hangseng may open lower today following a slightly weaker close in the US overnight. However, chance of technical rebound should be there after Hangseng shed more than 5% yesterday and fell to below 25000 mark. However, nervous investors will still dominate the market as investors are waiting for earnings report from Merril Lynch due out later tonight. Volatility may be high and expect another choppy session today. Hangseng may move between: 24600ish-25200ish.

Asian market review 16/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di Asia terjun bebas hari ini dengan kekhawatiran yg makin menambah bahwa ekonomi di AS masuk ke resesi yg akan menyebar ke perlambatan global. Para investor membuang saham setelah Ciitigroup melaporkan loss lebih dari $10 milliar di Q4. Pasar global membawa MSCI Asia Pacific Index turun 3.4% ke 145.51 dan MSCI World Index turun 6.9% sepanjang tahun ini, menghapus lebih dari $2.1 triliun dari market capital. Nikkei terjun 3.4% ke 13504.51 dan futures jatuh ke 13495, harga terendah setelah October 2005. Minyak mentah juga jatuh ke kisaran $91.72 per barrel dan emas jatuh ke $885an dan JPY ke kisaran 106.10.
Kospi terjun 2.4% setelah penjualan di department store jatuh untuk pertama kali dalam 7 bulan. Kospi dibuka di 218.70 dan jatuh tapi sempat naik ke 220.95 sebelum terjun ke 216.45. Volatilitas sangat tinggi hari ini dan Kospi ditutup di 218.55. Kospi bergerak antara: 216.45-220.95 hari ini.
Hangseng jatuh terbanyak hari ini setelah kejadian 11 Sept 2001. Hangseng telah jatuh lebih dari 20% setelah menyentuh harga tertinggi di October lalu dan para investor menganggap ini adalah bear market. Hangseng dibuka di 24906 dan sempat naik dulu ke 25211 sebelum terjun lagi dan ditutup di 24826 di sesi 1. Sesi 2 dibuka di 24676 dan turun terus kebawah ke 24314. Volatilitas tinggi juga di Hangseng dan market ditutup, turun lebih dari 5% di 24715 hari ini. Hangseng bergerak antara: 24314-25211.

Asian market review 16/01/2008

Asian markets plunged again today on growing concern that the US economy is sliding into recession that could lead into global slowdown. Investors dumped stocks after Citigroup reported almost $10 billion loss in Q4. The global market rout brought the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 3.4% to 145.51 and the MSCI World Index has decreased 6.9% so far this year, wiping out $2.1 trillion from its members' market capitalization. The Nikkei dropped 3.4% to 13504.51 and its futures dropped to 13495, its lowest close since October 2005. Crude oil also fell overnight and was recently traded at $91.72 per barrel and gold was at $885ish and JPY was around 106.10.
The Kospi tumbled 2.4% after the department store sales declined for the first time in 7 months. Kospi opened at 218.70 and it fell further but it went up a bit to 220.95 before tumbling to 216.45. Volatility was high too today and Kospi was closed at 218.55. Kospi moved between: 216.45-220.95 today.
Hangseng tumbled the most since Sept 11, 2001. Hangseng have dropped more than 20% since its October peak and some traders consider it to be a bear market. Hangseng opened at 24906 and it went up a bit to 25211 before plunging back down and closed at 24826 in 1st session. 2nd session saw Hangseng opened at 24676 and it went down further and reached its lowest at 24314. Volatility was also high in the market and Hangseng was closed, down more than 5% at 24715 today. Hangseng moved between: 24314-25211.

Asian market preview 16/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS jatuh lagi semalam setelah Citigroup melaporkan kerugian Q4 mencapai $9.83 miliar dibandingkan dengan keuntungan $5.1 miliar setahun sebelumnya. Citigroup juga memangkas 41% dividend, memotong 42000 pekerja dan juga mengalami kerugian $18 milliar akibat credit mortgage. Ini merupakan kerugian terparah sepanjang sejarah Citigroup. Saham2 juga jatuh setelah penjualan ritel jatuh 0.4% di December. Dow jatuh 277.04 pts atau 2.17% ke 12501.11, S&P500 jatuh 35.30 pts atau 2.49% ke 1380.95 dan Nasdaq jatuh 60.71 pts atau 2.45% ke 2417.59. Saham Apple Inc juga jatuh setelah produk2 baru tidak dapat membuat para investor terkesan dan saham Intell jatuh 13% setelah pasar tutup dengan Intel mengeluarkan forecast yg lebih rendah dibandingkan sebelumnya.
Pasar2 di Asia diperkirakan akan buka jatuh lagi setelah pasar AS terpuruk lagi semalam. Harga emas dan minyak dunia juga turun semalam. Minyak mentah ada di $91an, emas di $894an dan JPY di trade di 106.80an. Nikkei futures ditutup di 13730 di CME, hampir 300 pts lebih rendah dibandingkan penutupan disini kemarin. Nikkei mungkin akan terpukul berat dengan JPY menguat ke kisaran 106an. Pasar2 di Asia hrs melihat laporan keuangan dari masing2 negara untuk membantu pasar saham masing2.
Kospi mungkin akan dibuka jatuh lagi hari ini, mungkin akan dibuka di kisaran 219-220an dan saya tidak merekomendasikan apa2 di pembukaan. Pasar Korsel mungkin hrs melihat laporan keuangan dari mereka sendiri untuk para investor menilai bagaimana perekonomian di negara mereka dibandingkan dengan resesi dari AS. Para Eksportir mungkin akan terpukul berat lagi seiring dengan jatuh yg besar di AS. Kospi mungkin akan bergerak di kisran: 215an-223an. Volatilitas yg tinggi mungkin akan terjadi lagi hari ini dan kita, day trader dapat menggunakan itu sebagai keuntungan.
Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka jatuh lagi hari ini, mungkin akan dibuka di kisaran 25300-25400an dan saya tidak merekomendasikan apa2 di pembukaan. Volatilitas akan menjadi faktor penentu untuk kita para day traders. Hangseng mungkin akan jatuh kebawah 25000 jika laporan keuangan dari Hongkong sendiri tidak bagus. Hangseng mungkin akan bergerak di kisaran 24900an-25700an.

Asian market preview 16/01/2008

US markets resumed its January tumble last night after Citigroup announce a Q4 net loss of $9.83 billion compard to a $5.1 billion profit a year earlier. It also cut 41% dividend, 4200 jobs and writing off $18 billion for mortgage defaults. This was the worst loss in Citigroup's more than 200 years history. Stocks also declined after retail sales fell 0.4% in December, making it the worst year since 2002. Dow fell 277.04 or 2.17% to 12501.11, S&P500 declined 35.30 pts or 2.49% to 1380.95 while Nasdaq tumbled 60.71 pts or 2.45% to 2417.59. Apple shares also fell after new products failed to impress customers and Intel shares also plunged 13% after hours with Intel released a lower-than-expected forecast.
Asian markets are set to open lower again today following the US markets' rout overnight. Crude oil and gold prices also settled lower last night. Crude oil was recently traded at $91ish, gold at $894ish and JPY traded at 106.80ish. Nikkei futures closed at 13730 in CME, almost 300 pts lower than the close here yesterday. Nikkei may be hit hard with JPY strengthened against USD to 106ish which cut the value of overseas export. Asian markets may have to rely on each countries' earnings report to get a ground for their markets after the almost certain recession condition in the US.
The Kospi may open lower again today falling to its lowest since the August rout last year. It may open around 219-220ish and I don't recommend anything at this stage, seeing how uncertain the market is going to be. South Korean market may have to wait for its own earnings report for investors to see how their economy is performing with the ever mounting fear of recession from the US. Exporters may be hit hard again today with the huge fall from the US. Kospi may move between: 215ish-223ish today. We may expect another high volatility session in Kospi today.
Hangseng may open lower again today after the US plunge in the worst start to the year. It may open around 25300-25400ish and I don't recommend anything at the open. Volatility is expected to be high again and I think opportunities are going to be there for day traders. Hangseng may also fall to below 25000 if more bad earnings come out from Hongkong. Hangseng may move between: 24900ish-25700ish.

Asian market review 15/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 Asia terjun lagi hari ini setelah start di pagi hari yg cukup kuat. Pasar di Jepang jatuh setelah Yen menguat ke kisaran 107an dan penurunan di Nikkei dipercepat oleh Toyota dan Honda motors. Nikkei futures ditutup di 14000 dan sempat jatuh ke terendah di 13930, yg merupakan harga terendah sejak November 2005. China Mobile juga jatuh untuk hari ke-2 setelah China Mobile tidak melanjutkan perbincangan dengan Apple mengenai iPhone yg ingin memasuki pasar di Cina. MSCI Asia Pacific Index jatuh 1% ke 150.57.
Kospi dibuka naik sedikit di 224.85 tapi penguatan ini hanya sementara hingga ke 226.05 sebelum Kospi jatuh kembali hingga menyentuh 219.30. Shipbuilders jatuh lagi dipimpin oleh Hyundai Heavy Industries sedangkan Samsung dan LG Philips Electronics naik setelah earnings yg lebih bagus dikeluarkan oleh kedua perusahaan tersebut. Market sangat volatile hari ini dengan pergerakan antara naik dan turun hingga 200 pts. Kospi bergerak di antara: 219.30-226.05.
Hangseng dibuka naik ke 26734 dan melanjutkan kenaikan hingga 26848 sebelum akhirnya terjun bebas hingga 1000 pts+ seiring dengan jatuhnya pasar regional. Volatility sangat tinggi juga di Hongkong, dengan pergerakan harga berkisar antara 100-300 pts tiap kali. Hangseng ditutup di 26156 di sesi 1 dan sesi 2 dimulai di 26112. Hangseng kemudian naik sedikit sebelum akhirnya turun terus kebawah hingga 25698 dan ditutup di 25719 untuk hari ini, menjadikan penutupan terendah sepanjang tahun ini. Hangseng bergerak antara 25698-26848.

Asian market review 15/01/2008

Asian markets took a dive again today after a strong early morning start. Japanese markets fell after Yen strengthened 107ish and declines were paced by Toyota Motor and Honda Motor. Nikkei was closed at 14000, and it fell to as low as 13930, the lowest level since November 2005. China mobile also fell for 2nd day after it ended talks with Apple regarding its iPhone products entering China market. MSCI Asia Pacific index dropped 1% to 150.57.
Kospi opened the day slightly higher at 224.85 but it only reached as high as 226.05 before came tumbling back down towards 219.30. Shipbuilders fell yet again led by Hyundai Heavy Industries while Samsung and LG Philips Electronics climbed after better than expected earnings for both companies. Market was very volatile with price between ups and downs ranging up to 200 pts each time. Kospi moved between: 219.30-226.05.
Hangseng opened the day higher as well at 26734 and it went up further to 26848 before finally came tumbling down more than 1000 pts following regional market. Volatility was very high today with price ranging from 100-300 each curve. Hangseng was closed at 26156 for 1st session and 2nd session was opened at 26112. It went up a bit before finally going down all the way breaking lows to get to 25698 and closed at 25719 making it the lowest close this year. Hangseng moved between 25698-26848.

Asian market preview 15/11/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS rally semalam setelah jatuh untuk 3 minggu berturut2 hari Jumat lalu, dengan hasil preliminary yg bagus dari IBM membuat para investor untuk kembali ke market. Saham2 teknologi naik terbanyak tahun ini, setelah IBM mengeluarkan laporan perdana mengenai pendapatan mereka yg menunjukan peningkatan 24% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya dan juga setelah Apple Inc. menaikkan target 2008 menjadi $5.04 per saham dari $4.84 per lembar saham. Perusahaan2 emas dan oil juga naik membantu market untuk rebound dari start terburuk di awal tahun ini. Dow naik 171.85 pts atau 1.4% ke 12778.15, S&P500 naik 15.23 pts atau 1.1% ke 1416.25 sedangkan Nasdaq naik 38.36 pts atau 1.6% ke 2478.3. Market yg oversold juga menyokong rally dan juga optimisme bahwa perusahaan2 finansial akan menambah capital lebih banyak untuk menolong mereka dari kerugian yg besar yg disebabkan oleh pasar credit yg merugi.
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan rebound hari ini setelah jatuh yg tajam yg terjadi di beberapa sesi terakhir. Optimisme bahwa earning dari AS mungkin akan menunjukan bahwa performa perusahaan2 disana tidak 'terlalu buruk' di Q4 mungkin akan menambah konfident ke para investor di Asia. Tanda2 bahwa Fed akan memangkas suku bunga dan kemungkinan mereka akan memangkas lebih banyak dibandingkan sebelumnya juga mungkin akan menyokong kenaikan saham2 hari ini di Asia. Perusahaan2 emas dan oil mungkin juga akan membantu kenaikan dengan harga emas naik ke record dan oil naik lagi semalam setelah pengeboman yg terjadi di Pakistan. Emas ada di $903an, oil di $94an per barrel dan JPY ada di 108an. Nikkei futures ditutup di 14245 di CME.
Kospi mungkin akan dibuka naik hari ini setelah penurunan yg terjadi kemarin. Kospi sudah ada di area oversold dan mungkin ini akan menjadi pemicu bagi para investor untuk kembali masuk ke market dan membantu rebound hari ini. Para eksportir mngkin akan naik hari ini dengan optimisme bahwa earnings dari AS mungkin tidak akan separah yg diperkirakan sebelumnya dan juga dengan optimisme pemangkasan suku bunga dari the Fed. Kospi mungkin akan dibuka di kisaran 224-225an dan saya rasa masih merupakan area yg bagus utk BUY dengan pikiran bahwa Kospi sudah cukup rendah saat ini. Kospi mungkin akan bergerak antara: 221an-228an. Tetapi, kenaikan mungkin akan terhambat karena para investor akan menunggu hasil laporan keungan dari Citi nanti malam dan mereka ingin melihat seberapa parah kerugian yg akan diderita oleh sektor finansial di Q4 lalu.
Hangseng mungkin akan rebound hari ini dan mungkin akan dibuka di kisaran 26700an. Hangseng juga sudah cukup oversold dan ini mungkin akan mensupport para investor untuk kembali dan mencari saham2 murah jika mereka semua cukup optimis dengan laporan2 dari AS dan juga pemangkasan suku bunga the Fed yg lebih agresif. Hangseng mungkin akan bergerak di kisaran 26500an-27300an. Tetapi, kenaikan mungkin akan terhambat karena para investor akan menunggu hasil laporan keungan dari Citi nanti malam dan mereka ingin melihat seberapa parah kerugian yg akan diderita oleh sektor finansial di Q4 lalu.

Asian market preview 15/11/2008

US markets rallied overnight after declining for the 3rd straight week on Friday, with solid preliminary results from IBM encouraging investors to go back into stock market. Technology stocks had the biggest advance so far this year, after IBM released preliminary earnings estimates which were 24% higher than previous year and also after Apple Inc. raised 2008 earnings per share to $5.04 from $4.84. Gold and oil companies also advanced helping the market to rebound from its worst start to a year. Dow rose 171.85 pts or 1.4% to 12778.15, the S&P500 added 15.23 pts or 1.1% to 1416.25 while Nasdaq gained 38.36 pts or 1.6% to 2478.3. A quite oversold markets also helped the rally today along with optimism that financial companies will inject more capital to deal with their huge writedowns caused by the credit market losses.
Asian markets may rebound after steep losses happened for past few trading session. Optimism that the earnings in the US may show that the companies are still going to report a 'not so bad' earnings may boost some confidence for investors here in Asia. Signs that the Fed will cut rate and they may even go further than aniticipated earlier also may boost stocks today in the region. Gold and oil companies may also contribute to the advance with gold rose to record and oil prices gained overnight after another bombing in Pakistan. Gold was at $903ish, crude oil traded at $94ish per barrel and JPY was around 108ish. Nikkei futures settled at 14245 in CME.
The Kospi may open higher today after another loss yesterday. Kospi was quite oversold and this may spark investors to get back into the stock markets and help a rebound course today. Exporters may advance today with optimism that the earnings from US will not be as bad as anticipated earlier and also with rate-cut optimism from the Fed. Kospi may open around 224-225ish and I think that it's still a good area to get a BUY considering how low the Kospi is right now. Kospi may move between: 221ish-228ish. However, gains maybe limited as investors are waiting for earnings report by Citi due out later tonight and see how bad the financial sectors are going to be.
Hangseng may get a rebound today and may open around 26700ish today. Hangseng was also quite oversold right now and this may help investors to get back and hunt for cheap stocks if they're optimist enough about the US earnings and more aggressive rate-cut from the Fed. Hangseng may move between: 26500ish-27300ish. However, gains maybe limited as investors are waiting for earnings report by Citi due out later tonight and see how bad the financial sectors are going to be.

Asian market review 14/11/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di Asia jatuh ke harga terendah selama 3 minggu terakhir hari ini, dipicu oleh jatuhnya saham2 pembuat kapal dan juga produsen2 minyak setelah ekonomi di AS menunjukan tanda2 lebih banyak yg condong ke arah resesi dan juga setelah minyak jatuh ke harga terendah selama 3 minggu terakhir. Hyundai Heavy Industries post jatuh terparah selama 5 bulan terakhir atas kekhawatiran bahwa order akan turun dan juga PetroChina memimpin penurunan perusahaan2 minyak. Jatuhnya ekonomi AS kelihatannya akan mempunyai dampak yg cukup besar di Asia, melukai eksportir dan semua perusahaan2 yg terkait. MSCI Asia Pacific index kecuali Jepang jatuh 0.2% ke 510.52 di Hong Kong. Nikkei tutup hari ini karena libur.
Kospi memulai hari ini flat di 225.40 dan untuk beberapa menit pertama, Kospi sempat naik ke 227.35. Volatilitas sangat tinggi hari ini dengan pergerakan antara 150-200 pts tiap kali. Tetapi, Kospi tidak dapat bertahan dengan kenaikan di pagi hari dan jatuh kebawah meskipun banyak jg investor2 yg mencari saham2 murah, tetapi tetap tidak dapat menahan jatuhnya index di Korsel tersebut. Eksporter dipukul cukup berat karena kekhawatiran atas resesi di AS. KOspi bergerak di kisaran 222.65-227.35 dan ditutup di harga terendah.
Hangseng dibuka naik ke 27153 tapi dengan cepat dia kehilangan pegangan dan jatuh ke 26500an sebelum naik kembali dan menutup sesi 1 di 26930. Volatilitas disana sangat tinggi dengan pergerakan di kisaran 200-400 pts tiap kali. Sesi 2 melihat Hangseng dibuka turun ke 26866 dan terus lengser kearah 26409 sebelum ditutup di 26420 untuk hari ini. Hangseng bergerak di kisaran: 26409-27183.

Asian market review 14/11/2008

Asian markets fell to 3-week low today, led by shipbuilders and oil producers after US economy showed more signs of recession and also after oil fell to 3 week low. Hyundai Heavy industries posted worst decline in 5 months on concern orders will decline and PetroChina led the decline among oil-related companies. The falling US economy seems to have widespread implications for Asia, hurting exporters and all related companies. MSCI Asia Pacific index excluding Japan fell 0.2%, set for its lowest close at 510.52 in Hong Kong. Nikkei was closed today for holidays.
Kospi started the day flat at 225.40 and for the morning session, it went up to its highest at 227.35. Volatility was high today with moves ranging from 150-200 pts each time. However, Kospi can't hold on to the gains that morning and it went downhill although there were bargain hunters who seek cheap stocks tried to make the index positive but to no avail. Exporters were hit hard and also shipbuilders such as Hyundai Heavy Ind due to the recession fears coming out from the US. Kospi moved between 222.65-227.35 and was closed at its lowest.
Hangseng opened higher at 27153 but quickly lost its ground towards 26500ish before going back up and closed the 1st session at 26930. Volatility was very high here with moves ranging from 200-400 pts each time. 2nd session saw Hangseng opened lower at 26866 and it moved even lower to 26409 before it was closed at 26420 for the day. Hangseng moved between: 26409-27183.

Asian market preview 14/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS jatuh untuk minggu ke-3, penurunan berturut2 yg terpanjang dari bulan Agustus kemarin setelah perkiraan dari AT&T, American Express dan Tiffany & C0 meyakinkan bahwa ekspansi ekonomi selama 6 tahun terakhir akan berakhir. Dow hilang 246.79 pts atau 1.92% ke 12,606.30, S&P500 turun 48.58 pts atau 1.95% sedangkan Nasdaq jatuh 19.31 pts atau 1.36% yang membuat ini start tahunan terburuk sejak 1982. Tetapi, pernyataan yg dibut Fed chairman minggu lalu, menyatakan bahwa Fed akan melakukan segala sesuatu untuk terus menyokong pertumbuhan membuat spekulasi bahwa Fed akan menurunkan suku bunga bertambah besar bahkan ada yg memperkirakan Fed akan memangkas 75 basis points di akhir minggu kemarin.
Pasar2 di Asia mungkin akan dibuka dibawah lagi hari ini seiring dengan jatuhnya Wall St hari Jumat. Minyka juga jatuh ke harga terendah di 3 minggu terakhir setelah menyentuh harga $100 2 minggu lalu. Minyak di trade di kisaran $92.80an per barrel, emas di $895an, JPY di 108.50an. Nikkei futures ditutup di 14160 di CME, turun dari penutupan 14210 Jumat lalu disini. Market Jepang akan tutup hari ini. Harga emas mungkin akan membantu mensupport market dan juga optimisme bahwa Fed akan memangkas rate mungkin akan membantu beberapa market untuk mencegah penurunan yg lebih tajam.
Kospi mungkin akan dibuka dibawah hari ini. Kospi ada kemungkinan untuk jatuh dibawah 220 jika para investor kabur dari pasar modal dan juga jika eksportir benar2 terkena dampak yg besar dari kondisi perekonomian di AS, karena Korsel melakukan ekspor yg sangat besar ke AS. Kospi mungkin dibuka dikisaran 221an tapi saya tidak merekomendasi untuk melakukan apa2 karena terlalu banyak ketidakpastian. Ada kemungkinan Kospi bahkan akan kembali keatas karena Kospi sudah jatuh terlalu banyak bahkan hari Jumat, Kospi jatuh lebih dari 2%. Kospi mungkin akan bergerak di kisaran 218an-227an.
Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka dibawah seiring dengan jatuhnya pasar2 di AS. Hangseng mungkin akan jatuh kebawah 26000 jika para investor melarikan uang mereka dan mencari investasi yg lebih aman. Eksporter juga mungkin akan terkena dampak yg besar hari ini tapi mungkin akan ada harapan karena Hongkong juga terikat erat dengan Cina. Hagnseng mungkin akan dibuka di kisaran 26200an tapi saya tidak merekomendasi apa2 untuk sekarang. Mungkin akan baik jika kita melakukan wait n see, tapi jika Hangseng menyentuh 26000, mungkin akan cukup bagus untuk BUY dan menunggu rebound. Hangseng mungkin akan bergerak di kisaran 25800an-26600an hari ini.

Asian market preview 14/11/2008

US markets fell for a third straight week, the longest losing streak since August after forecast from AT&T, American Express and Tiffany & Co almost confirmed that the six-year economic expansion is ending. The Dow lost 246.79 pts or 1.92% to 12,606.30 and S&P500 declined 48.58 pts or 1.95% while the Nasdaq lost 19.31 pts or 1.36% which makes it the worst start to the year since 1982. However, the statement made by the Fed chairman earlier last week, signaled that the Fed will do something to support growth and the speculation of even a 75 basis points cut rose from 0% to 34% at the end of the week.
Asian markets are set to open lower again today with the plunge in Wall St on Friday, marking its 3rd straight weekly losses. Crude oil also declined to its lowest in 3 weeks after it reach $100 mark 2 weeks ago. Crude oil was traded around $92.80ish per barrel, gold at $895ish, JPY at 108.50ish. Nikkei futures was settled at 14160 in CME, down from a close of 14210 on Friday. Japanese market will be closed today for public holiday. Gold may help put some positive light in the Asian markets and also the optimism of a Fed rate cut at the end of the month may help some markets to limit the declines.
The Kospi may open lower today. Kospi may break 220 level today if investors are running away from stock markets and impact on exporters are huge. Kospi may open around the 221ish level but I don't recommend anything at this time due to this much uncertainties. It is possible for Kospi to actually bounce back instead of going down coz it has gone down so much even on Friday, it was down more than 2%. Kospi may move around: 218ish-227ish.
Hangseng may open lower after US markets tumbled on economic data and bad earnings. The Hangseng may even go lower than 26000 if investors are pulling away from the stock markets. Exporters may be hit hard witht he bad economic in the US but there's still some hope as HongKong is also tight closely to China in terms of its economic condition. Hangseng may open around 26200ish but I do not recommend anything at the open. It may be best to wait and see in this uncertain times but should Hangseng touch 26000 mark, it may be a good opportunity to get a BUY and expect a rebound. Hangseng may move around 25800ish-26600ish today.

Asian market review 11/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di Asia jatuh lagi hari ini, mengarah ke jatuh mingguan yg tertajam dalam sebulan terakhir dengan saham2 finansial membawa pasar2 jatuh dengan kekhawatiran bahwa subprime loss akan menyebar ke area2 lainnya dan juga setelah Merril Lynch & Co. diperkirakan akan melaporkan kerugian sebesar $15 milliar, hampir 2x lipat perkiraan pertama. Pasar2 sempat naik di pagi hari setelah The Fed menyatakan bahwa mereka siap untuk memangkas suku bunga lagi untuk memerangi resesi. Nikkei jatuh ke harga terendah dalam 18 bulan dan Nikkei futures menyentuh harga terendah di 14105. Nikkei ditutup di 14170, jatuh 7.8% tahun ini, membuat start yg terburuk di awal tahun sejak 1997. Pihak ritel seperti Seven & I juga membuat pasar jatuh di Jepang.
Kospi mulai hari ini di 232.90 dan sempat naik hanya hingga 233.40 sebelum akhirnya terjun bebas hampir 1000 pts selama sesi perdagangan. Prediksi saya di pagi hari sangat berbeda jauh hari ini ttg Kospi dan Kospi bergerak antara 224.25-233.40 hari ini. Perekonomian Korsel juga diprediksikan akan melambat, seiring dengan Jepang yg sudah diprediksikan akan mengarah ke resesi lagi.
Hangseng dibuka menguat di 27338 dan sempat menguat hingga 27654 sebelum akhirnya terjun hampir 1000 pts juga selama sesi perdagangan. Volatilitas di pasar sangat tinggi hari ini seperti yg diperkirakan tetapi kekhawatiran para investor membuat market jatuh hari ini karena mereka tidak mau bertahan lama di market di waktu yg tidak menentu ini. Para investor khawatir bahwa subprime loss akan terus ada dan akan menyebar ke area2 lain di pasar global. Hangseng menutup sesi 1 di 27315 dan memulai sesi 2 terjun ke 27088 dan meneruskan terjunnya ke terendah di 26701 sebelum akhirnya ditutup di 26760. Hangseng bergerak antara 26701-27654.

Asian market review 11/01/2008

Asian market fell again today, set for its steepest weekly drop in over a month with financial shares driving the market lower on concern that subprime losses will spread to other areas and after Merril Lynch & Co. may report $15 billion in writedowns, almost twice its original forecast. Markets have gained ground earlier after the Fed chairman said that they're ready to cut more rates if necessary. Nikkei dropped to its lowest close in 18 months and its futures reached as low as 14105. Nikkei was closed at 14170, falling 7.8% so far this year, making it the worst start to a year since 1997. Retailers such as Seven & I also drove the market lower in Japan.
Kospi started the day at 232.90 and it went up to only as high as 233.40 before plunging down almost 1000 pts during the session. Kospi dropped more than 2% today, making it the worst drop in a week. My morning predictions were off the charts today as Kospi moved between 224.25-233.40 today. South Korean economy seems to be slowing down as well, with Japan market was predicted to be heading for a recession as well.
Hangseng opned stronger at 27338 and it went up further to 27654 before finally plunging down amost 1000 points as well during the session. Market volatility was high as expected but nervous investors dominated the market in these uncertain times. Investors are worried that the subprime problems will remain and will spread out to other areas in the global market. Hangseng closed the 1st session at 27315 and it started the 2nd session plunging to 27088 and it went down further to as low as 26701 before finally closed at 26760. Hangseng moved between 26701-27654 today.

Asian market preview 11/01/2008 (Indonesian)

Pasar2 di AS naik untuk hari ke-2 setelah mengalami sesi rollercoaster sekali lagi. Signal dari Bernanke bahwa the Fed akan siap menurunkan suku bunga lagi untuk menghindari resesi dan juga setelah Bank of America menyatakan bahwa mereka akan membeli Countrywide Financials telah mendorong pasar2 di AS untuk naik. Kenaikan sempat terhambat karena penurunan di saham2 energi setelah harga minyak jatuh kebawah $94 dipicu kekhawatiran bahwa perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi akan membuat konsumsi energi semakin sedikit. Dow naik 117.78 pts atau 0.92%, S&P500 naik 11.20 pts atau 0.8% dan Nasdaq naik13.97 pts atau 0.6%. Sektor finansial naik 2.3% setelah jatuh 2% di pagi hari.
Pasar2 di Asia kelihatannya akan melakukan rebound dari penurunan kemarin setelah kenaikan di market AS 2 hari berturut2 semalam. Spekulasi bahwa the Fed akan menurunkan suku bunga untuk mencegah resesi akan menjadi salah satu pemicu kenaikan hari ini dan saya rasa, ini akan mendongkrak sektor financial di Asia juga. Penurunan di harga minyak dunia mungkin akan mendorong turun saham2 energi di kawan ini dengan Nymex crude oil di trade di $94an, emas di $893an dan JPY di 109.30an. Nikkei futures ditutup di 14500 di CME, naik dari penutupan 14370 di Osaka dan 14365 kemarin.
Kospi mungkin akan melakukan rebound di pembukaan setelah kenaikain di AS. Sehabis jatuh lebih dari 1% kemarin, teknikal rebound mungkin akan terjadi dan juga dikarenakan market sudah masuk daerah oversold. Exportir mungkin akan mendapat dorongan dengan adanya confidence yg lebih banyak masuk ke AS. Kenaikan mungkin akan di limit oleh saham2 energi dan volatiliti di market ini mungkin masih tinggi hari ini dan saya rasa, banyak day traders yg akan melakukan hit n run sampai semuanya tenang. Jika Kospi dibuka di kisaran 233an, saya rasa masih cukup bagus untuk BUY buat day trade. Kospi mungkin akan bergerak antara: 230an-237an.
Hangseng mungkin akan dibuka naik hari ini setelah pasar2 di AS naik lagi semalam, mendorong saham2 exportir. Para investor mungkin akan kembali ke pasar dengan spekulasi the Fed akan memangkas suku bunga lagi di pertemuan akhir bulan nanti. Market yg oversold juga mungkin akan memicu teknikal rebound dan mungkin akan membantu Hangseng lebih lagi. Jika Hangseng dibuka di kisaran 27500an, saya rasa masih cukup bagus untuk BUY dan day trade. Hangseng mungkin akan bergerak di antara: 27000an-27800an. Volatiliti masih akan tinggi di market hari ini.

Asian market preview 11/01/2008

US markets gained for 2nd day in a row in another volatile session after Bernanke signaled that the Fed are ready to make a move to prevent recession. Stocks also rose after investors speculated that Countrywide Financials will be bought by Bank of America. The gains were limited with declines in energy producers as oil dropped to below $94 during the day for the first time in more than 2 weeks with speculation that slower economic growth means less energy consumption. Dow rose 117.78 pts or 0.92%, S&P500 gained 11.20 pts or 0.8% while Nasdaq added 13.97 pts or 0.6%. Financial sectors climbed 2.3% after falling as much as 2% earlier.
Asian markets are set to rebound from yesterday's losses following US consecutive gains overnight. Speculation that the Fed will cut rates to ease recession concerns will be one of the main drivers today and I think that will boost financial sectors in Asia region too. Declines in oil prices may drag down energy shares across the region with Nymex crude oil traded at $94ish recently, gold at $893ish and JPY at 109.30ish. Nikkei futures settled at 14500 in CME up from a close of 14370 in Osaka and 14365 in Singapore yesterday.
The Kospi may get a rebound at the open after a surge in the US markets overnight. After plunging more than 1% yesterday, a technical rebound may happen and investors may put in their money in the stock market again with speculation that the Fed will cut rates further in January meeting. Exporters may get a boost with more confidence pouring in from the US. Gains may be limited by energy shares and volatility in the market may still be high today and my guess is that many day traders will be doing a hit n run until everything is calm. If the Kospi open around 233ish region, I think it's still a good chance to BUY for day trade. Kospi may move between: 230ish-237ish.
Hangseng may open higher today after US markets rose overnight, boosting exporter shares. Investors may come back to the market with speculation that the Fed will be cutting rates as early as January meeting. Oversold market may also spark a technical rebound and this may help Hangseng further. If Hangseng open around 27500, I think it may still be a good area to BUY for day trade. Hangseng may move between: 27200ish-27800ish. Volatility may still be high in the market today.