Nikkei opened down at 9690 on negative US data on jobless and initial claims last night. Jobless rate raise to 9.5% in June and initial claims in US is at 467,000 as reported last night. Investors fret about these bad data and they feel that economy recovery may not be as fast as predicted initially. Analysts said that with more high jobless rate, consumer spending maybe affected too and the US economy is supported mostly by consumer spending. Nikkei quickly shrugged off early morning weakness to rise above 9700 in early trade. Analysts have said that Japan and other Asia countries' economic foundation is better than that in the US. Traders are boosted by program buying led by foreign investors though trading volume remains light ahead of the long weekend in the US. Towards the close, Nikkei gained more and was closed at 9820 at 1.30PM my time.
Kospi opened down at 178.85 from yesterday's close at 181.85. Kospi quickly regained its ground as foreigners keep buying stocks and prompted local investors to follow suit. North Korean's missile test conducted yesterday had limited impact on the market today as investors feel that is old news. Kospi played around 180-181ish region before sprinting past 182ish towards the end of the day. Kospi ended in positive territory, closed at 182.70.
Hangseng opened down at 17955 and looked set to go down further to continue the downward trend from yesterday. It touched 17864 just after 15 mins of trading before it shot up when the cash market open in Hongkong. It then go up and play between 17900ish-18100ish and was closed at 18039 for 1st session. 2nd session opened at 18105 and Hangseng moved rather flat with upward bias. It touched its intraday high at 18194 before closed flat at 18138.
Jumat, 2009 Juli 03
I'M BACK!!!!
Fellow traders, After more than 6 months sitting on the sidelines taking a break from everything and going on holidays, I'm back in the game now. For the past half year, I've seen that the worldwide markets have gone to their lowest points in mid-march and they have also staged a very impressive rally in the past 3 months. Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its lowest point at 6469.95 on 6th March and have also touched its highest point for the year at 8900.48 on 5th June. Between its lowest and highest points, DJIA has rallied 37.6%.
The same thing happened around Asia region. Nikkei have touched its lowest point at 6935 on 9th March and its highest at 10180 on 12th June or 46.8% rally between its lowest and highest points.
Korean Kospi have also experienced the same thing as its regional peers. It touched its lowest point of 129 at 3rd March and its highest point of 183.60 at 12th June or 42.3% rally between its lowest and highest points.
Hongkong Hangseng is the clear winner among the 3 major markets in Asia which I cover in this blog. It reached its lowest point of 11324 at 9th March and its highest point of 19093 at 12th June or 68.6% rally between its lowest and highest points.
In the past 1 month, worldwide stock markets are having their consolidation periods. They're now waiting if the massive rallies are justified. The 3 months rally staged by worldwide markets are caused by good economic data and upbeat news given by economists. Not forgetting that major countries around the world pumped billions of dollar to help revive the failing global economy. It is not unusual for markets to take a breather from long rallies such as this. Right now, investors are waiting to see if Q2 earnings reports by various companies can support the rally. If there are more upbeat forecasts and good earnings reports, Dow Jones may end the year in the positive territory, Nikkei may breach 11,000, Kospi may go beyond 200 and Hangseng may breach its 21,000 mark.
To see more news and follow my daily analysis and predictions, come back to this blog everyday as I will update this blog early morning my time (GMT+7) and if I'm not too lazy, I'll write up daily reviews after market closes.
Cheers traders & Happy Trading
The same thing happened around Asia region. Nikkei have touched its lowest point at 6935 on 9th March and its highest at 10180 on 12th June or 46.8% rally between its lowest and highest points.
Korean Kospi have also experienced the same thing as its regional peers. It touched its lowest point of 129 at 3rd March and its highest point of 183.60 at 12th June or 42.3% rally between its lowest and highest points.
Hongkong Hangseng is the clear winner among the 3 major markets in Asia which I cover in this blog. It reached its lowest point of 11324 at 9th March and its highest point of 19093 at 12th June or 68.6% rally between its lowest and highest points.
In the past 1 month, worldwide stock markets are having their consolidation periods. They're now waiting if the massive rallies are justified. The 3 months rally staged by worldwide markets are caused by good economic data and upbeat news given by economists. Not forgetting that major countries around the world pumped billions of dollar to help revive the failing global economy. It is not unusual for markets to take a breather from long rallies such as this. Right now, investors are waiting to see if Q2 earnings reports by various companies can support the rally. If there are more upbeat forecasts and good earnings reports, Dow Jones may end the year in the positive territory, Nikkei may breach 11,000, Kospi may go beyond 200 and Hangseng may breach its 21,000 mark.
To see more news and follow my daily analysis and predictions, come back to this blog everyday as I will update this blog early morning my time (GMT+7) and if I'm not too lazy, I'll write up daily reviews after market closes.
Cheers traders & Happy Trading
Senin, 2008 November 24
Asian market preview 24/11/2008
US markets ended the turbulent week on a high note on Friday as markets soared on report that president-elect Barrack Obama have chosen his Treasury Secretary. Timothy Geithner, President of New York Fed, have been chosen to combat the US economic crisis. US markets are expected to stay volatile in the coming week with more economic data to come out in a shortened trading week because of Thanksgiving holiday. On Monday, president-elect Barrack Obama may be doing something really important where he will announce his team and may give a psychological boost to investors. He promised that he will create 2.5 million jobs by 2010. The Thanksgiving holiday will be used by markets to gauge the economic activity in the retail sector too. Lastly, unemployment data will be closely watched this week. The Dow ended up by 494.37 pts or 6.55% to 8,046.66, S&P500 shot up 47.57 pts or 6.32% to 800.01 while Nasdaq rose 68.23 pts or 5.18% to 1,384.35.
Asian markets may open higher today following the jolt of confidence in the US over the appointment of Timothy Geithner to become Treasury Secretary for Barrack Obama. Investors may find this as an opportunity to buy up stocks which were beaten down last week. Oil was closed at $49.30 per barrel, gold was closed at $791.80 and JPY was closed at 95.67. Nikkei futures was closed at 7900 in CME compared to the close of 7700 here on Friday. Nikkei will be closed for holiday today.
Kospi may open higher and may continue its rally from Friday today following the US markets boost. Investors may finally find some reason to buy stocks and may build from Friday's rally. Lower oil also put inflationary pressure at rest as oil prices get lower than $50 per barrel. Kospi may find its support at 127ish and its resistance at 137ish today.
Hangseng may open higher and may go further as US markets were boosted on Friday and China's nuclear expansion program. Confidence may drive investors to buy into stocks today and hopefully the rally can last this time. Hangseng may find its support at 12500ish and its resistance at 13600ish today.
Asian markets may open higher today following the jolt of confidence in the US over the appointment of Timothy Geithner to become Treasury Secretary for Barrack Obama. Investors may find this as an opportunity to buy up stocks which were beaten down last week. Oil was closed at $49.30 per barrel, gold was closed at $791.80 and JPY was closed at 95.67. Nikkei futures was closed at 7900 in CME compared to the close of 7700 here on Friday. Nikkei will be closed for holiday today.
Kospi may open higher and may continue its rally from Friday today following the US markets boost. Investors may finally find some reason to buy stocks and may build from Friday's rally. Lower oil also put inflationary pressure at rest as oil prices get lower than $50 per barrel. Kospi may find its support at 127ish and its resistance at 137ish today.
Hangseng may open higher and may go further as US markets were boosted on Friday and China's nuclear expansion program. Confidence may drive investors to buy into stocks today and hopefully the rally can last this time. Hangseng may find its support at 12500ish and its resistance at 13600ish today.
Jumat, 2008 November 21
Asian market preview 21/11/2008
US markets plunged again last night to levels not seen since 1997 for S&P500 and the rest of major markets touched the lows formed in 2002. Financials and energy sector led the tumble in the markets today. Investors feared that the government's financial rescue won't be sufficient to cover banks' losses. Meanwhile, a 7% drop in crude prices hurt energy sector pretty bad last night. Investors are also concerned that the automakers bailout plan have hit a wall as Democratic leaders postponed another proposal by automakers to Dec 2. However, the pullback last night was seen as encouraging by some analysts as the selling volume was heavy last night and that was exactly what they were looking for. Heavy selling came after the markets breached a 5-year technical resistance point and fear took over for investors and they continue on selling. Markets are still looking for a bottom to get the turnaround they needed. Meanwhile, the number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose to 25 year high as shown by government data and a regional manufacturing gauge slumped as economic misery intensified. The Dow ended down by 444.99 pts or 5.56% to 7,552.29, S&P500 tumbled 54.14 pts or 6.71% to 752.44 while Nasdaq fell 70.30 pts or 5.07% to 1,316.12.
Asian markets may fall again today and some may re-test the lows touched in October. Fear and pessimism seem to be gripping the markets now as investors are afraid to make big investments around the region. Global economic outlook seem to be very gloomy now as the US recession deepened. More investors may also dump shares today ahead of the weekend and they want to preserve the leftover cash they have now. Oil prices plunged as investors fear that demands will keep faltering well into the next year. Crude oil was recently traded around $49.40ish per barrel, gold traded around $748.70. Gold rose as investors saw it as an alternative and safer investment during this time. JPY was recently traded around 94.13ish and Nikkei futures was closed at 7350 compared to the close of 7560 here yesterday. Nikkei may trade between 7000ish and 7500ish today.
Kospi may open lower yet again today and may test the October intraday lows today. Nervous investors may dump stocks again today. The losses may be intensified by Posco as its US ADRs fell 9.1% last night in US trading. Foreigners may keep running away from the local market, selling and try to hold cash from whatever stocks left to sell. Kospi may find its support at 115ish and its resistance at 125ish today.
Hangseng may open lower today following another huge selloff in the US which saw markets touched 11-year lows last night. More fear and uncertainties may grip investors today and they may decide to dump stocks. Petrochina may lead the losses as energy prices tumbled following the diminishing global demands. China mainland markets may also play a significant part to determine how deep the market will fall today. Hangseng may find its support at 11300ish and its resistance at 12300ish today.
Asian markets may fall again today and some may re-test the lows touched in October. Fear and pessimism seem to be gripping the markets now as investors are afraid to make big investments around the region. Global economic outlook seem to be very gloomy now as the US recession deepened. More investors may also dump shares today ahead of the weekend and they want to preserve the leftover cash they have now. Oil prices plunged as investors fear that demands will keep faltering well into the next year. Crude oil was recently traded around $49.40ish per barrel, gold traded around $748.70. Gold rose as investors saw it as an alternative and safer investment during this time. JPY was recently traded around 94.13ish and Nikkei futures was closed at 7350 compared to the close of 7560 here yesterday. Nikkei may trade between 7000ish and 7500ish today.
Kospi may open lower yet again today and may test the October intraday lows today. Nervous investors may dump stocks again today. The losses may be intensified by Posco as its US ADRs fell 9.1% last night in US trading. Foreigners may keep running away from the local market, selling and try to hold cash from whatever stocks left to sell. Kospi may find its support at 115ish and its resistance at 125ish today.
Hangseng may open lower today following another huge selloff in the US which saw markets touched 11-year lows last night. More fear and uncertainties may grip investors today and they may decide to dump stocks. Petrochina may lead the losses as energy prices tumbled following the diminishing global demands. China mainland markets may also play a significant part to determine how deep the market will fall today. Hangseng may find its support at 11300ish and its resistance at 12300ish today.
Rabu, 2008 November 19
Asian market preview 19/11/2008
US markets staged a late rally last night in another turbulent session as investors rushed back into the markets after the S&P500 market tested 2003 low. Investors, who have been sidelined for the past 4 out of 5 sessions, used the momentum to buy into stocks and joined in the rally. At least, one of the reasons of the rally was because fund managers had to find replacement for Anheuser-Busch Cos. as it will be officially removed at markets' close after it completed its takeover by Belgium's InBev SA. Another reason of the rally was because Hewlett-Packard reported better than expected earnings and provided a strong projection for Q4 and 2009. Overall markets sentiment is still negative as there are still many bad news regarding the bigger economy picture. The Labor Department reported that wholesale prices plunged the most in October and meanwhile, homebuilders' confidence sank to a new all-time low this month. Analysts believed that markets are still trying to find its real bottom and volatility will stay for quite a while as fears of a deepening recession grip the markets. Markets will need more strength from here for a period of time to develop a convincing story that the market has bottomed. The Dow ended up by 151.17 pts or 1.83% to 8,424.75, S&P500 rose by 8.37 pts or 0.98% to 859.12 while Nasdaq rose 8.37 pts or 0.98% to 1,483.27. Meanwhile, the congress and Bush administration are debating as to how to save the big 3 automakers. Congress proposed to use part of the $700 billion bailout money but Bush's administration said that there are other ways to save the automakers.
Asian markets may open higher today after plunging yesterday and may stay above the positive territory today as bargain hunters kick in. As analysts have said so many times, markets everywhere will be testing and retesting October lows and try to find the bottom before the markets find strength to stage a strong rebound. Crude oil fell yet again as investors see easing demands in the coming quarters. Oil was recently traded around $54.40ish per barrel, gold traded around $737.60ish and JPY traded around 96.90ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 8450 in CME compared to the close of 8285 here yesterday. Nikkei may trade between 8100ish and 8600ish today.
Kospi may open higher today following a late recovery in US markets and some bargain hunters may try to get into the market after Kospi lost almost 4% yesterday. The overall global economy may still weigh on the market but investors' confidence may be built little by little as share prices look so very attractive at current levels. Chip makers may lead the way after positive guidance from HP over in the US last night. Lower oil prices may also make investors to think that with inflation threat is diminishing, the government have more room to jolt the economy back into life. Kospi may find its support at 132ish and its resistance at 139ish today.
Hangseng may open higher after plunging almost 5% yesterday following a US markets' rebound and support from regional markets. Bargain hunters may come in and buy stocks at current levels. However, China mainland markets may also play a part to determine whether Hangseng will stage a strong rebound or it will go back down again today. Hangseng may find its support at 12400ish and its resistance at 13300ish today.
Asian markets may open higher today after plunging yesterday and may stay above the positive territory today as bargain hunters kick in. As analysts have said so many times, markets everywhere will be testing and retesting October lows and try to find the bottom before the markets find strength to stage a strong rebound. Crude oil fell yet again as investors see easing demands in the coming quarters. Oil was recently traded around $54.40ish per barrel, gold traded around $737.60ish and JPY traded around 96.90ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 8450 in CME compared to the close of 8285 here yesterday. Nikkei may trade between 8100ish and 8600ish today.
Kospi may open higher today following a late recovery in US markets and some bargain hunters may try to get into the market after Kospi lost almost 4% yesterday. The overall global economy may still weigh on the market but investors' confidence may be built little by little as share prices look so very attractive at current levels. Chip makers may lead the way after positive guidance from HP over in the US last night. Lower oil prices may also make investors to think that with inflation threat is diminishing, the government have more room to jolt the economy back into life. Kospi may find its support at 132ish and its resistance at 139ish today.
Hangseng may open higher after plunging almost 5% yesterday following a US markets' rebound and support from regional markets. Bargain hunters may come in and buy stocks at current levels. However, China mainland markets may also play a part to determine whether Hangseng will stage a strong rebound or it will go back down again today. Hangseng may find its support at 12400ish and its resistance at 13300ish today.
Selasa, 2008 November 18
Asian market preview 18/11/2008
US markets plunged again last night on the first trading day of the week. The fear of a deepening recession caused investors to dump stocks in a very volatile session. The financial sector is still showing struggling signal as Citigroup Inc. is cutting another 53,000 jobs and it plans to lower expenses by about 20%. Investors are also still waiting whether the troubled automakers would get a bailout from the $700 billion package. Industrial output came in better-than-expected last night, rising 1.3% compared to the 0.2% increase predicted by analysts. However, this figure is not encouraging enough as investors are still nervous about the bigger economy picture and there are more bad news compared to that single good news. Meanwhile, corporate earnings seems to have hit the wall and investors are unsure when it will recover. Retailers kept posting smaller revenues or forecasting weaker earnings in the coming quarters as consumer spending slowed. Wall Street was also disappointed as there are lack of directions taken to resolve the current crisis by the G-20 meeting over the weekend. The Dow ended down by 223.73 pts or 2.63% to 8,273.58, S&P500 fell 22.54 pts or 2.58% to 850.75 while Nasdaq ended lower by 34.80 pts or 2.29% to 1,482.05
Asian markets may open lower today following more bad news and more nervousness came out of the US last night. However, regional markets proved to have shown a bit of resilience yesterday as some of them managed to stay positive. Those performances yesterday may yet be tested again today whether investors still have the slight confidence in them to invest in Asia. Crude oil prices fell last night to close at 22-month low and was recently traded around $55.10ish per barrel, gold traded around $736ish and JPY traded around 96.35ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 8420 in CME compared to the close of 8415 here yesterday. Japan's Nikkei rose yesterday despite reports showing that the country is in a recession. Nikkei may find its support at 8100ish and its resistance at 8600ish today.
Kospi may open lower today following more fears shown by the US investors as they dumped stocks in the US trading session last night. However, Kospi may follow regional markets' trading pattern today. Kospi may show more resilience today as investors may look up for cheap stocks and invest for long-term. Kospi may find its support at 136ish and its resistance at 145ish today.
Hangseng may open lower yet again today following the same regional pattern. Baidu.com may weigh in the China mainland markets which may also weigh on Hangseng today. Morgan Stanley and Merril Lynch raised concerns about Baidu's listing practices as it seems that the company provided top positions for unlicensed medical web sites willing to pay more for popular key words. Hangseng may find its support at 12900ish and its resistance at 13700ish today.
Asian markets may open lower today following more bad news and more nervousness came out of the US last night. However, regional markets proved to have shown a bit of resilience yesterday as some of them managed to stay positive. Those performances yesterday may yet be tested again today whether investors still have the slight confidence in them to invest in Asia. Crude oil prices fell last night to close at 22-month low and was recently traded around $55.10ish per barrel, gold traded around $736ish and JPY traded around 96.35ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 8420 in CME compared to the close of 8415 here yesterday. Japan's Nikkei rose yesterday despite reports showing that the country is in a recession. Nikkei may find its support at 8100ish and its resistance at 8600ish today.
Kospi may open lower today following more fears shown by the US investors as they dumped stocks in the US trading session last night. However, Kospi may follow regional markets' trading pattern today. Kospi may show more resilience today as investors may look up for cheap stocks and invest for long-term. Kospi may find its support at 136ish and its resistance at 145ish today.
Hangseng may open lower yet again today following the same regional pattern. Baidu.com may weigh in the China mainland markets which may also weigh on Hangseng today. Morgan Stanley and Merril Lynch raised concerns about Baidu's listing practices as it seems that the company provided top positions for unlicensed medical web sites willing to pay more for popular key words. Hangseng may find its support at 12900ish and its resistance at 13700ish today.
Senin, 2008 November 17
Asian market preview 17/11/2008
US markets were closed sharply lower on Friday as investors cashed in after a big rally the day before and return their focus on the economy. Hedge fund selling ahead of a Saturday deadline contributed most of the markets' downturn. There were plenty discouraging news about the economy including comments from Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke saying that the markets remain under "severe strain" and a sobering report on October retail sales. Analysts believe that the markets are still searching for a bottom after last month's heavy sell-off and investors are just too nervous to invest for long term. Ben Bernanke also noted that he would work closely with other central banks and left the door open for a fresh round of interest rate cuts. This news did not cheer investors too much as they aren't sure how effective these rate cuts are going to be. The Commerce Department reported that October retail sales fell by 2.8%, surpassing its old lowest mark of 2.65% drop in November 2001 after the terrorist attacks. Now, investors are confirmed that the economic slowdown is going to last to next year and maybe more and that 2009 will be a very bad year for economic activity. The only concern is that investors are still unsure of how bad the slowdown is going to be next year. The Dow ended down by 337.93 pts or 3.82% to 8,497.31, S&P500 fell 38.00 pts or 4.17% to 873.29 while Nasdaq fell 79.85 pts or 5% to 1,516.85.
Asian markets may open lower and start the week weaker today following more downturn in the US on Friday. Bernanke's comments may weigh on investors sentiment today and concerns about the overall economic activity may cause investors to think twice before going in the market. Investors may also cashed out after staging a recovery rally on Friday for the regional markets. However, seeing at how things are going, investors may already realized that the global economy is going to slow further and if markets fell too much today, bargain hunting may kick in again. Oil prices also fell on Friday and was closed at $57.04 per barrel, gold was last traded at $742.50 and JPY last traded at 97.07. Nikkei futures was closed at 8460 at CME compared to the close of 8575 here on Friday.
Kospi may open lower today following US markets' tumble on Friday on fresh economic concerns. Investors may also be eyeing the PPI figure due to come out today to determine the general market direction. Markets may also be pressurized as there are no strong action at the weekend G-20 meeting that take place from Saturday in Washington. However, if markets fell too much, bargain hunters may kick in yet again as they see this as an opportunity. Kospi may find its support at 137ish and its resistance at 147ish today.
Hangseng may open lower today following the tumble in the US markets on Friday and also as there are no fresh new ideas of support from the G-20 meeting. Lower oil prices may eventually help the general markets but in the near term, investors are focusing on the global economic slowdown and that may cause investors to become nervous and may led to a selloff today for Hangseng. China mainland markets may play a part today to give support to prevent Hangseng from falling too deep. Hangseng may find its support at 12800ish and its resistance at 13800ish today.
Asian markets may open lower and start the week weaker today following more downturn in the US on Friday. Bernanke's comments may weigh on investors sentiment today and concerns about the overall economic activity may cause investors to think twice before going in the market. Investors may also cashed out after staging a recovery rally on Friday for the regional markets. However, seeing at how things are going, investors may already realized that the global economy is going to slow further and if markets fell too much today, bargain hunting may kick in again. Oil prices also fell on Friday and was closed at $57.04 per barrel, gold was last traded at $742.50 and JPY last traded at 97.07. Nikkei futures was closed at 8460 at CME compared to the close of 8575 here on Friday.
Kospi may open lower today following US markets' tumble on Friday on fresh economic concerns. Investors may also be eyeing the PPI figure due to come out today to determine the general market direction. Markets may also be pressurized as there are no strong action at the weekend G-20 meeting that take place from Saturday in Washington. However, if markets fell too much, bargain hunters may kick in yet again as they see this as an opportunity. Kospi may find its support at 137ish and its resistance at 147ish today.
Hangseng may open lower today following the tumble in the US markets on Friday and also as there are no fresh new ideas of support from the G-20 meeting. Lower oil prices may eventually help the general markets but in the near term, investors are focusing on the global economic slowdown and that may cause investors to become nervous and may led to a selloff today for Hangseng. China mainland markets may play a part today to give support to prevent Hangseng from falling too deep. Hangseng may find its support at 12800ish and its resistance at 13800ish today.
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