Jumat, 19 September 2008

Asian market preview 19/09/2008

US markets soared last night and posted its best day in 6 years after news that the government is preparing a more comprehensive solution to the financial crisis sparked a furious late rally in the day. The CNBC reported that the government might create an entity to absorb banks' bad debt. It is more like a vehicle similar to the Resolution Trust Corp. formed in the crisis in the late 1980s and the news cheered investors as it showed that the government is doing everything they can to stabilize the financial system. The Fed also added another $55 billion in overnight loans on Thursday. Fears in the market have also led big financial institutions such as Washington Mutual and Morgan Stanley to rush to make a deal and in the process of combining with other banks. Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. are reported to be interested in the takeover of Washington Mutual while Morgan Stanley and Wachovia Corp. are in talks of a possible merger. Gold and Oil again become targets for safe-haven buying by investors as gold rose $50.20 to $900.70 an ounce. Oil has also rose above $100 before it went back down to settle at $97.88 per barrel. Meanwhile, the labor department reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 10,000 last week to 455,000 due to Louisiana's job losses from Hurricane Gustav. The Philadelphia Fed said that its regional manufacturing report improved 3.8 in September from a negative 12.7 in August and mark the first positive reading since November. The Dow shot up 410.03 pts or 3.86% to 11,019.69, S&P500 rose 50.12 pts or 4.33% to 1,206.51 while Nasdaq rose 100.25 pts or 4.78% to 2,199.10.

Asian markets may open higher today as newfound optimism caused Wall St to rally overnight. With the news that US government will provide some sort of vehicle for bad debt, investors may be confident enough to buy stocks and hold a rally for a few days now. Stocks have been previously battered so bad that analysts believe that now it's a good time to buy stocks as prices are already "cheap". The joint effort by central banks worldwide to inject as much as $180 billion into global money markets may also cheer investors. Markets around the region are expected to post big gains like that of Wednesday but this time, hopefully the rally will last. Commodity companies may also be benefited as oil continue to rise last night and also as gold rose yet again on safe-haven buying buy investors. Oil was recently traded around $98.30ish per barrel, gold traded around $860.60ish and JPY traded around 105.65ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 11760 in CME last night compared to the close of 11555 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher today following the rally staged by Wall St on the much needed relief news given by the US government. With new-found optimism in the market, investors may rush into stocks to buy stocks at the now already bargain prices. Bargain hunters may lead the way and push stocks higher today. With oil holding steady below $100 per barrel and gold still rushed higher, it may be a good sign and boost the market further. Kospi did not get the chance to react as the news of global central banks plans to inject $180 billion into global money system came after Kospi was closed yesterday. Kospi may find its support at 182ish today and its resistance at 190ish.

Hangseng may open higher today after staging a late recovery yesterday in an exceptionally hectic session. Yesterday, Hangseng was down as much as 7.7% at one point before it staged a 2nd session recovery to close flat. Volatility was very high as investors rushed to buy bargain stocks after the news about global central banks' joint effort to pump money. However, the rally may also be halted if China mainland markets still show some negativity. Investors are still quite nervous after their confidence was being tested to the limit with failures after failures of giant financial companies. Hangseng may find its resistance at 18500ish today and its support at 17900ish today.

Kamis, 18 September 2008

Asian market preview 18/09/2008

US markets tumbled yet again last night, with Dow sank more than 450 pts on concerns that more financial institutions may be in trouble. Investors' confidence were hit hard and The Fed's action to rescue AIG was seen as not so positive move after all. Investors thought that with The Fed lending $85 billion to AIG, it means that no other independent companies that can come up with that much amount of cash to help bailout the insurance giant. Trust is also becoming an issue on Wall St last night as AIG used to say that they are OK along with anybody else and now one by one, the financial institutions start to collapse. Commodity sector became a target for safe-haven buying as investors divert their money to oil, gold and short-term treasurys. Gold rose as much as $90.40 or 11.6% to $870.90 an ounce in after-hours trading while oil rebounded $6.01 to settle at $97.16 per barrel. The Dow lost 449.36 pts or 4.06% to 10,609.66, S&P500 plunged 57.21 pts or 4.71% to 1,156.39 while Nasdaq fell 109.05 pts or 4.94% to 2,098.85.

Asian markets may open lower and may plunge again today after staging a moderate rebound yesterday. More worries from Wall St's financial system may grip investors and may cause more worries for banks around the region. Asian banks which have exposure to institutions in the US may be in tight spot as investors' confidence starts to fade away. The sector which may shine today is commodity sector as oil and gold prices rally last night. Oil was recently traded around $97ish per barrel, gold traded around $863.90ish and JPY traded around 104.38ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 11320 in CME last night compared to the close of 11650 here yesterday.

Kospi may open lower today, erasing yesterday's gains and may go down further. Kospi may test this year's lowest point and if it can break that, it may go down even further as confidence fade away for foreign and local investors. With oil price rebounded, commodity sector may get a boost but other sector like airlines may be hit hard as investors lock in profit after recent gains as oil prices dropped. Kospi may find its strong support at 175ish and may find its resistance at 182ish today.

Hangseng may open lower yet again today and may continue its way south after plunging more than 3% yesterday on more worries about banks' exposure to US' counterparts. Hangseng may test the 17000 level and may even break that level if investors are really panicking right now and as investors' confidence fade away. With oil prices rising, inflation fears may creep back in although oil still stayed below $100 per barrel. Airlines and travel sector may be hit further as oil rose while CNOOC and PetroChina may rise. Hangseng may find its strong support at 16500ish today and its resistance at 17300ish.

Selasa, 16 September 2008

Asian market preview 16/09/2008

US markets tumbled the most since 2001's terrorist attacks last night, losing more than 500 pts as investors recoiled as Lehman Brothers Inc. filed for bankcruptcy and after a forced sale of Merril Lynch to Bank of America. While the 2 companies have reached some kind of resolution, investors are now focused on other financial institutions such as AIG, which is seeking funding to shore up its balance sheet. The Fed is urging other financial giants such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to raise money of up to $75 billion to help AIG. Investors have become scared and panic selling was seen across the markets in the US as the stability of the financial systems is being questioned. Investors are also waiting for The Fed's decision on interest rates which is due later on tonight and investors are expecting that The Fed might show some signs that they're ready to cut rates further. On the commodity sector, oil also tumbled $5.47 to $95.71 per barrel on renewed concerns that the demand is slowing significantly. The Dow plunged 504.48 pts or 4.42% to 10,917.51, S&P500 fell 59.00 pts or 4.71% to 1,192.70 while Nasdaq fell 81.36 pts or 3.60% to 2,179.91.

Asian markets are bracing for hefty losses today following the bankcruptcy of Lehman Brothers and after Merril Lynch was swallowed by Bank of America. The troubles in AIG may also add to the worry for investors here as a lot of banks and institutions are exposed to AIG and also Lehman Brothers. The tumble in commodity sector may also hurt commodity players here in Asia and countries like Indonesia may suffer further as its market is being driven by commodity-related companies. With major Asian merkets closed yesterday, they may play catch up to Wall St and may suffer more losses. Oil was recently traded around $94.27ish per barrel, gold traded around $790.50ish and JPY traded around 104.22ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 11740 in CNE compared to the close of 12220 here on Friday.

Kospi may open lower today and may test this year's low on Lehman's demise. The exposure on Lehman Brothers for Korean banks also may weigh on the market today. Losses may be accelerated if investors decided to take their money off stocks on worries that the financial system in the US may be unstable and may spread off to the rest of the world.

Hangseng may open lower today following other markets as Lehman Brothers filed for bankcruptcy and also more worries for AIG. The tumble in commodity prices may also weigh on commodity producers in Hong Kong such as Sinopec and CNOOC. The only consolation found in today's market may be the interest rate cut by the PBOC in China. Hangseng may find its support at 18000 and its resistance at 18700 today.

Jumat, 12 September 2008

Asian market preview 12/09/2008

US markets staged quite a big rally last night despite more Lehman worries still linger around the market. Bargain hunters bought financial's stronger players and also materials and transport sectors. The falling crude prices also helped investors to go into buying mode in Wall St. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo & Co. and Washington Mutual are the names that investors think their stocks are at bargain prices and investors were collecting their stocks. However, concerns regarding the broader economy still lingers as Labor Department reported that people seeking jobless benefit dropped 6,000 last week to 445,000 while analysts predicted a reading of 440,000. The Commerce Department also said that the nation's trade deficit jumped in July to the highest level in 16 months as oil imports set new highs which offset strong export growth, but since then, oil have fallen about 30% from its peak and investors are expecting better trade deficit in the coming months. Crude oil fell $1.71 to settle at $100.87 per barrel and helped investor to buy more stocks as optimism build slightly that inflation would tame. The Dow finished higher by 164.79 pts or 1.46% to 11,433.71, S&P500 rose 17.01 pts or 1.38% to 1,249.05 while Nasdaq rose 29.52 pts or 1.32% to 2,258.22.

Asian markets may open higher today following the stronger close on Wall St last night and as oil prices drop, hopefully investors will get slight optimism to buy into stocks. Talks that Bank of America might be helping and buy Lehman Brothers may also be taken as positive news by investors and may finally give reason to buy into financials as well. Commodity-related companies may continue be battered today as gold price slide to below $750. Oil was recently traded around $101.40ish per barrel, gold traded around $752.60ish and JPY traded around 106.95ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 12210 in CME compared to the close of 11985 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher today following the stronger close on Wall St which may spark buying interest for investors locally. The gain in US$ may give boost for exporters but the falling commodity prices may also limit its gains today. Bargain hunters may kick in and start collecting stocks that have been battered quite badly for the past few days. Kospi has been showing some resilience as it didn't drop as much as other markets like Nikkei and Hangseng. Kospi may find its support at 188 and its resistance at 195ish today.

Hangseng may open higher today following the stronger close on Wall St and after the markets have been battered badly for the past 2 days. Bargain hunters may come in and buy cheap stocks but gains may be limited if investors are still worried about Chinese giants such as China Mobile. Commodity related companies may be hit again today. PetroChina and CNOOC may also get hit again as oil prices fell. However, lower oil prices may benefit the market in long term as inflation tame and central banks around the world can focus on economic recovery. Hangseng may find its support at 19200ish and its resistance at 20000 today.

Kamis, 11 September 2008

Asian market preview 11/09/2008

US markets ended moderately higher last night as Wall St mulls Lehman plans and after investors bought energy, materials and consumer-staple stocks which have been battered badly the previous session. Lehman Brothers reported the biggest loss in its 158-year history, posting $3.9 billion Q3 loss on $5.6 billion of writedowns, worse than the $2.2 billion loss predicted by analysts. The company then said that it plans to sell a majority stake in its investment management business and spin off its troubled mortgage assets and its shares dropped another 6.9% on top of 45% drop in the previous session. Bargain hunters dominated the markets last night as they bought energy names and defensive stocks like consumer staples which have dropped to a fairly cheap price. Oil prices fell again as indications of a weakening economy overshadowed OPEC's decision to cut production. Light sweet crude fell 68 cents to settle at $102.58 per barrel. The Dow ended up 38.19 pts or 0.34% to 11,268.92 in a very volatile session. S&P500 rose 7.53 pts or 0.61% to 1,232.04 while Nasdaq rose 18.89 pts or 0.85% to 2,228.70.

Asian markets may open slightly higher today and may rise further if investors decided that it's time to bargain hunt cheap stocks. Most markets retreated yesterday as more jitters came from Wall St over fears of Lehman Brothers' failure. The sliding oil price may provide support and reason for investors to buy stocks as inflation pressure eases. Volatility in the markets around the region may be quite high especially for those with expiring futures contract due today such as Nikkei and Kospi. Oil was recently traded around $102.83ish per barrel, gold traded around $750.35ish and JPY traded around 107.80ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 12295 in CME compared to the close of 12300 for old contract and 12260 for new contract here yesterday.

Kospi may open around yesterday's closing price with tendency to go higher today. Kospi was one of the markets in the green territory yesterday as investors bought up futures contracts for rollover due to expire today. The strengthening Won may provide support and give more reason for investors to buy stocks. The drop in oil prices may also give reason for investors to buy. Kospi may find support at 189ish and its resistance at 194ish today. Please take note that these data is for Kospi's new contract.

Hangseng may open higher today and may again reclaim its 20,000 psychological level. Hangseng dropped to below 20,000 on downgrades for China property sector and also after commodity related stocks were hit. Bargain hunters may start kicking in today as they try to get cheap stocks to collect when the Hangseng index dip below 20,000. China's inflation measure dropped to 4.9%, its lowest in 14 months. However, investors are not too happy with that data as now, the focus are on commodity prices which have dropped so fast that it indicated a major slowdown in economy. Hangseng may find its resistance at 20300ish today and its support at 19800ish.

Rabu, 10 September 2008

Asian market preview 10/09/2008

US markets tumbled more than 2% last night on fresh concerns regarding Lehman Brothers that the company might not be able to find new investors to shore up its balance sheets. The pullback came a day after the biggest single-session rally in a month, after the government announced the takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Worries about the fate of Lehman Brothers sent its stocks down nearly 50% as talks with South Korea's KDB ended. Another bad news came from the pending US home sales report where the National Association of Realtors reported that its pending sales of existing homes fell 3.2% to 86.5 from 89.4 in June and missed a predicted reading of 88.6. Energy companies suffered yet again as oil fell $3.08 to settle at $103.26 per barrel as Hurricane Ike appeared to be heading away from installations in the Gulf. The Dow ended down by 280.01 pts or 2.43% to 11,230.73, S&P500 fell 43.28 pts or 3.41% to 1,224.51 while Nasdaq fell 59.95 pts or 2.64% to 2,209.81.

Asian markets may open lower again today as more worries from the US may spill over to the region. Yesterday, Asian markets were closed lower as profit taking dominated the market and more economic worries caused investors to seek safety. The economic doubts seem to become reality today as fears that another major bank may collapse in the US may trigger a selloff yet again. The continuing downfall in energy and commodity prices may help the market in long term as inflation eases but may hurt markets in short term as energy and commodity companies may lose market value. Oil was recently traded around $103.26ish per barrel, gold traded around $792ish and JPY traded around 107.08ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 12175 in CME last night compared to the close of 12455 for old contract and 12405 for new contract here yesterday.

Kospi may open lower again today following the end of the takeover talk by KDB for Lehman Brothers. Uncertainties about the fate of major US banks may spook investors as more economic worries may spread globally. The fall in oil prices may help stocks such as airlines and travels but it may not help too much as investors may seek safety after big gains on Monday. From technical point of view, Kospi still have room to fall after a gain of more than 5% on Monday and it needs to close the big gap formed that day. Kospi may find its support at 182ish and a very strong support at 180ish and its resistance at 187ish.

Hangseng may open lower yet again and may continue its path lower, closing the gap formed on Monday too. With more economic uncertainties from the US, investors in Hong Kong may not want to bet too heavily and may pull their winnings while they're still in the money right now. However, the continuing fall in oil prices may help curb the selloff and may give positive sentiment for the market in inflation terms. Chinese mainland market may yet again play a part in determining whether Hangseng may continue its downward path or it may recover slightly in 2nd session. Hangseng may find its support at 19800ish and its resistance at 20500ish today.

Selasa, 09 September 2008

Asian market preview 09/09/2008

US markets soared last night following after news came out on Sunday that the government have taken over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The markets rallied alongside Europe and Asia, staging one of the biggest 1 day rally around the world. The takeover was cheered by investors and it boosted confidence for financials and home builders. However, the move did not immediately help all areas of the economy for example tech which was battered badly last week. Analysts believe that the rescue for both companies may provide a short-term rally and lessened the bear grip on the market. Financials and home builders provided boosts for the markets while Tech sector still quite lagging behind on worries that global slowdown may slow demands. Crude oil price rose slightly on fears that hurricane Ike may be on its way to oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico. Light sweet crude rose 11 cents to settle at $106.34 per barrel. The Dow ended up by 289.78 pts or 2.58% to 11,510.74 after being up nearly 350 pts earlier. S&P500 rose 25.48 pts or 2.05% to 1,267.79 while Nasdaq rose 13.88 pts or 0.62% to 2,269.76.

Asian markets may open around yesterday closing price with more upward bias today as most markets have staged quite a big rally yesterday. It is not surprising if some markets may also pullback some of the gains from yesterday as markets rose quite sharply for 1 day. Financials and banks may still provide the steam for today's advance but fears of hurricane Ike may cause oil price to rise and in turn may drag some markets around the region. Oil was recently traded around $106.34ish per barrel, gold traded around $802.50ish and JPY traded around 108.10ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 12540 in CME compared to the close of 12660 here yesterday.

Kospi may open around the same price as yesterday and may still rise further today if there are more market boosting news such as a stronger Won. However, a pullback is not surprising considering that the market rallied more than 5% yesterday. Investors may also still be cautious ahead of more economic data to come out of the US later on this week, and also the fate of commodity prices will be closely watched by investors. Kospi may find its resistance at 193ish and its support at 188ish today.

Hangseng may open around yesterday's closing price with some upward bias. However, with China markets dragging like yesterday, Hangseng may lose some steam and may also be dragged lower by China mainland markets. Yesterday's rally was quite big for Hangseng too and quick profit taking for those hit-n-run traders may cause Hangseng to lose more points. The uncertainty in oil prices may also provide reason for investors to look for safety while they're in the money. Hangseng may find its resistance at 21000 and its support at 20400ish today.