Jumat, 29 Agustus 2008

Asian market preview 29/08/2008

US markets were closed sharply higher last night on better-than-expected GDP, a drop in jobless claims and also a decline in oil prices. The Commerce Department reported that GDP rose at an annual rate of 3.3% for the April-June period which gave investors some new optimism as it was better than government's initial estimate of 1.9% and economists' forecast of 2.7%. The good GDP number gave investors reassurance that the economy is holding up and it marked the economy's best performance since Q3 last year when GDP rose 4.8%. The Labor Department also reported that jobless claims dropped to 425,000 down 10,000 from the previous week and was better than the 427,000 expected by analysts. Oil prices rose initially on fears that tropical storm Gustav will hit installations in The Gulf of Mexico but the strengthening dollar helped curb those gains and caused oil prices to drop. Crude oil fell $2.56 to settle at $115.59 per barrel. Trading volume was light again last night ahead of the long Labor Day weekend in US. The Dow rose 212.67 pts or 1.85% to 11,715.18, S&P500 rose 19.02 pts or 1.48% to 1,300.68 while Nasdaq rose 29.18 pts or 1.22% to 2,411.64. Dell Computers reported Q2 profit that fell short of analysts' estimates and shares tumbled after hours.

Asian markets may open higher today following the strong close on Wall St caused by new-found optimism with the better GDP number. Lower oil prices may also help Asian markets today following the drop around the region yesterday. Foreigners may still play a big part in many Asian countries and they may determine whether they're going to boost the Asian markets now. However, with today being a Friday, gains may also be limited going towards the weekend as investors may not want to risk it in the uncertain times. Oil was recently traded around 116.49ish per barrel and it may rise again in the weekend as Gustav creeps in. Gold was recently traded around $838.80ish and JPY traded around 109.43ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 13005 in CME last night compared to the close of 12790 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher today following the sharp drop yesterday and was closed near this year's lowest point. Stocks may rebound today as bargain hunters may kick in and also after the US markets showed more strength than expected. The slightly lower oil prices may also help investors to find reasons to buy into stocks. Kospi may open around 192-193ish and may rise further towards 195ish. However, if foreigners keep selling off their stocks, Kospi may not hold that for long and it may go back down. Volatility may be high as bargain hunters and sellers try to reign the market. Kospi may find its resistance at 195 and its support at 190 today.

Hangseng may open higher today after being battered badly yesterday following some downgrades for some heavyweights in the market. Good earnings doesn't mean that companies can have a nice rally as downgrades from financial institutions made investors selloff stocks while they're still in the money. However, Hangseng may rebound today as US economy showed positive signs and also strong market close for the US proved that investors in the US are still quite optimistic. However, gains may also be limited ahead of the weekend today. Hangseng may open around 21200ish and may rise further towards 21500ish today. Hangseng may find its resistance at 21500 and its support at 21800 today.

Kamis, 28 Agustus 2008

Asian market preview 28/08/2008

US markets were closed higher last night after durable goods surprisingly rose for 2nd month in a row. The Commerce Department reported that durable goods jumped 1.3% in July, led by a big gain in demand for commercial aircraft. The strong number in durable goods indicated that manufacturing is holding quite well and it also showed that business spending and consumer confidence may pick up later on. Meanwhile, crude oil kept rising last night, it rose $1.88 to settle at $118.15 per barrel as fears that tropical storm Gustav might hit the Gulf of Mexico installations. Financial sector also get a boost after durable goods number jumped as it eased fears that further economic slowdown will hit the already troubled banks and lenders. Dow ended up by 89.64 pts or 0.79% to 11,502.51, S&P500 rose 10.15 or 0.80% to 1,281.66 while Nasdaq rose 20.49 pts or 0.87% to 2,382.46. Trading volumes are light ahead of the long Labor Day weekend.

Asian markets may open higher today following Wall St's positive close last night as durable goods order rose which gave some positive vibe to the markets. However, further increase in crude oil prices may hurt oil-sensitive stocks such as airlines and may also hurt the overall markets around the region. Markets dominated by commodity companies such as Indonesia may get the advantage with rising oil. Oil was recently at $118.15ish per barrel, gold traded at $834ish and JPY traded at 109.54ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 12865 in CME compared to the close of 12755 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher today following more good news from the US and the stronger markets close over there. However, if foreigners keep selling off stocks locally and if oil prices keep rising, Kospi may be hurt again today. Kospi touched its new year's low at 189.10 yesterday but managed to close well above the 190 level again. Kospi may extend yesterday's slight gain and may try to get towards 195 level today with strong support stands at 190 and its current year low of 189.10.

Hangseng may open higher today following the strong US markets close last night and may extend yesterday's gains. Hangseng was closed up almost 2% yesterday after China Mobile and China Life led the rally and the big gains were caused by futures rollover buying late yesterday afternoon. The market may extend those gains today but the high oil prices may weigh on the market too. Today's market may be influenced by the first half earnings of 2 heavyweights in PetroChina and CNOOC. Both are oil-related companies. Hangseng may find its support at 21200 today and its resistance at 22000.

Rabu, 27 Agustus 2008

Asian market preview 27/08/2008

US stocks ended mixed in light trading last night as concerns about the path of hurricane Gustav sent oil prices higher and offset a better-than-expected reading on consumer confidence. Comments from The Fed regarding the country's high inflation also added to market's uneasiness. The Fed's minutes from Aug. 5 meeting showed that they are concerned about creeping inflation and it would need to raise interest rates to curb inflation. However, analysts believe that The Fed are more concerned about the slowing growth and it would need a significant jump in gas prices for The Fed to start raising interest rates, which they believe to be quite some time. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index rose to 56.9 from a revised 51.9 in July. Analysts have expected a reading of 53 which marked a second month of improvement in sentiment, after a six-month slide since January. Another good news came from Commerce Department where it reported that new home sales rose 2.4% in July while analysts have expected a drop in sales. However, despite all these good news, the markets are more concerned that Hurricane Gustav would hit installations in the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days which sent energy prices higher. Crude oil rose $1.16 to settle at $116.27 per barrel. Volatility is quite high but trading volume remains light last night as investors are usually take the last week of the summer off. The Dow ended slightly higher by 26.62 pts or 0.23% to 11,412.87, S&P500 rose 4.67 pts or 0.37% to 1,271.51 while Nasdaq fell 3.62 pts or 0.15% to 2,361.97.

Asian markets may open flat with a slightly upward bias following US markets' mixed close last night. Higher energy prices may weigh slightly on the markets but with dollar gained strength against major currencies, exporters may get a boost. The positive news from the US which came out last night may help regional markets slightly too but as there are not many news from The US, markets may have to rely locally for directions. Markets dominated by commodity related companies such as Indonesia may rise today with the rising energy prices. Crude oil was recently traded at around $116.20ish per barrel, gold traded around $287.10ish and JPY traded around 109.62ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 12815 in CME compared to the close of 12780 here yesterday.

Kospi may open around yesterday's close but with slightly upward bias today. Positive news from The US may give some reasons for investors to buy into stocks today after the market fell yesterday and after just a slight increase on Monday. However, with oil prices back above $116 per barrel, investors may still be quite nervous as high energy prices means inflation problem is creeping back in. Bargain hunters may find their way to buy stocks though as the market have been battered quite badly and it is currently near this year's lowest points. Kospi may find its support at 190ish and its resistance at 196ish today.

Hangseng may open slightly higher today following yesterday's selloff after it rose sharply on Monday. With a huge drop on Wall St on Monday night, the slight drop in Hangseng yesterday indicated that market sentiment is still quite good for Hangseng and that it may rise further today. Bargain hunters may kick in to buy stocks but oil sensitive stocks may be dragging the overall market today. China mainland markets may also play a part to determine whether Hangseng will rise more or it will go back down. Hangseng may open at around 21120ish and it may find its support at 20800 and its resistance at 21300ish today.

Selasa, 26 Agustus 2008

Asian market preview 26/08/2008

US markets tumbled more than 240 points last night as financials drag on the overall market. The trading volume was light and that was part of the reason that the market fell steeply. AIG was the victim and was the steepest decliner among the Dow stocks after a Credit Suisse analyst cut its price target and forecast steep losses for third quarter. Adding to investors' concerns, Fitch Ratings warned late Friday that it might cut its ratings for AIG. Banks and other financial institutions also struggled in part because of a spike in the number of homeowners who have fallen behind on their mortgage payments. A report on Monday indicated that the number of unsold properties rose to an all-time high in July which caused investors to ignore the better-than-expected 3.1% increase in sales of existing homes. Crude prices rose 52 cents to settle at $115.11 after tropical storm Gustav formed in the Carribean. Trading volume was light and analysts expected this week to be more or less the same due to the lack of data. Investors are just too worried about the state of banks and financial institutions because of the prolonged credit crisis. The Dow ended down by 241.81 pts or 2.08% to 11,386.25, S&P500 fell 25.36 pts or 1.96% to 1,266.84 while Nasdaq fell 49.12 pts or 2.03% to 2,365.59.

Asian markets may open lower today after staging a big rally yesterday. More worries on the US' financial sector may drag the regional markets as foreigners may sell their stocks over in Asia. With more uncertainties for crude oil, there are more reasons for investors to sell and maybe have a profit taking session today. Oil was recently traded around $115.35ish per barrel, gold traded around $827.20ish and JPY traded around 109.26ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 12695 in CME compared to the close of 12870 here yesterday.

Kospi may open lower today after staging a moderate rebound yesterday due to the fall in oil prices and some good news on inflation problems in the US. However, as foreigners still selling off stocks, Kospi only rose marginally yesterday. Nervousness is still around for investors as the Korean Won fell to its weakest and government are trying to do something to prevent it to fall further. Exporters gets benefit on the falling Won but investors do not think the same way and Kospi is still being pressurised. Kospi may open around 191ish and may go further lower if investors decided to sell more stocks and if foreigners decided to sell their holdings. Kospi may have a strong support at around 190ish but if it breach that level, it may find its strong support at around 187-188ish region. Kospi may find its resistance at 193ish today.

Hangseng may open lower today following the weak close in Wall St after more worries regarding the financial sector in the US. A day after staging a 700 pts rally, investors over in Hong Kong may take a breather and decide to enjoy some profit in these uncertain times in the global market. Hangseng may open around 20900ish and may go down further if investors decided to selloff stocks while they're in the money. However, if optimism is shown from Chinese government with their stimulus package, there's a chance that Hangseng may get a rebound and rise further. With high volatility in the market, Hangseng may find its support at 20700ish today and may find its resistance at around 21200ish today.

Senin, 25 Agustus 2008

Asian market preview 25/08/2008

US markets were closed sharply higher on Friday to end a volatile week with just a slight loss as oil prices tumbled and after The Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said that inflation pressures are likely to moderate. Bernanke said that inflation pressures should moderate this year amid tepid economic growth and as commodity prices start to fall back. However, he added that inflation forecast remains "highly uncertain". Investors' mood were further lifted as crude oil plunged $6.59 per barrel to settle at $114.59 per barrel. Speculation surrounding Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., saying that Korea Development Bank is considering buying the company, helped to give some hope for the financial sector and gave investors a reason to buy Lehman's stocks after the market sold off its stocks the day before. However, with light trading volumes, analysts' have said that the rally could not be fully used as an indicator that investors are confident enough to buy into the market. Remarks from Bernanke and Warren Buffet also indicated that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might be able to get by without a government bailout. The Dow finished the day up by 197.85 pts or 1.73% to 11,628.06, trimming the week's loss to 31.84 pts or 0.27%. S&P500 rose 14.48 pts or 1.13% to 1,292.20, trimming the week's loss to 6.00 pts or 0.46%. Nasdaq rose 34.33 pts or 1.14% to 2,414.71 but ended down for the week by 37.81 pts or 1.54%.

Asian markets may open higher today with the fall in oil and some boost regarding inflation pressure to ease over in the US. Another sharp drop in oil prices means that investors can have a breather and are able to ease some concerns regarding inflation around the region. M&A may also give some boost to some markets around the region today. However, with oil prices fell, it means that commodity prices may also fall along and may cause some problems for countries like Indonesia where its market is dominated by commodity related companies. Oil was recently traded around $114.36ish per barrel, gold traded around $821.85ish and JPY traded around 109.90ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 12905 in CME compared to the close of 12730 here on Friday.

Kospi may open higher today after being badly battered last week and have made a new year low at 190.40 on Friday. With oil prices falling back to the $114ish region, hopefully investors may get some confident to buy stocks back today. It was typical last week that Kospi opened a day higher but could not hold onto its gains for the rest of the day. Kospi may open around 195ish and may rise further if investors are confident enough. It may find its resistance at around 197ish and may find its support at 193ish today.

Hangseng may open higher today following the market's close on Friday due to hurricane warning. However, Hangseng have missed a sharp drop in the market along with regional sentiment on Friday. This may cause some slowdown in the rally today. With the Beijing Olympics finished over the weekend, hopefully this will bring investors attention back to the market and may cause them to buy stocks back today especially after oil prices are back to the $114 region. China markets may also play a part to determine how high Hangseng may rise today or where it will be capped for its gains. Hangseng have also made a new year low record of 20300 on Thursday. Hangseng may open around 20500ish and may rise further if investors decided to buy stocks now. Hangseng may find its resistance at 20800ish today and its support at 20300ish.

Jumat, 22 Agustus 2008

Asian market preview 22/08/2008

US markets ended the session mixed last night after a huge jump in oil put some nervousness back into investors' minds. The positive news came from financial sector where analyst raised its ratings on Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to buy saying that the 4th biggest investment bank has become a hostile takeover candidate. That call helped ease concerns for investors and shrugged off most of the inflation fears caused by the spike in oil. Crude oil jumped $5.62 to settle at $121.18 per barrel amid rising tension between US and Russia and also the weakening US$ against major currencies. The rebound in oil prices helped energy companies such as Exxon and Chevron higher but weighed on such companies like United Airlines and Continental Airlines. Economic readings also showed some weakness but were ignored by investors. The Philly Fed said regional manufacturing activity was negative for 9th straight month. Investors were also ignoring the better-than-expected readings in unemployment from Labor Department. Report said that claims fell by 13,000 to 432,000 last week which was more than expected. The Dow ended a tick higher by 12.78 pts or 0.11% to 11,430.21, S&P500 rose 3.18 pts or 0.25% to 1,277.72 while Nasdaq fell 8.70 pts or 0.36% to 2,380.38.

Asian markets may have difficulties in today's trading with a sharp spike in oil prices indicated that inflationary pressure is creeping back in. The markets which have opened have indicated such pressure as they have all went lower just within 1 hour of trading. With higher oil prices and more worries over in the US financial sector, markets around the region may face more selling pressure and investors may also want to offload their stocks holdings as weekend is around the corner. Oil was recently traded around $121ish per barrel, gold traded around $835.80ish and JPY traded around 108.58ish. Nikkei have opened at 12750 and have ticked lower to reached its current low at 12625 and its current high at 12755. Nikkei was recently traded at 12680.

Kospi have also opened at the time of my writing. Kospi was opened at 194.65 and it went south after touching its current high of 194.70. Kospi have touched its lowest at 191.40 and was recently traded at around 192.15. Kospi may trade in this range for the rest of the day but there's also a chance that it might go lower further if investors are more nervous and if oil prices keep going up in Asian trading session. Kospi may find a strong support at 190ish and may find its resistance at 195 today.

Hangseng may open lower yet again today as a spike in oil prices means more inflationary pressure for the country and also for the greater China region. However, with Hangseng have been badly battered for the past few sessions, bargain hunters may kick in if the index have gone far too low. Hangseng may open around 20200ish and may go down further to test the 20000 level today. It may even break the 20000 level and may find its strong support at 19800ish today. Hangseng may find its resistance at 20500 today. China markets may play a big market if Hangseng should rebound or fall further.

Rabu, 20 Agustus 2008

Asian market preview 20/08/2008

US markets were closed sharply lower for 2nd straight day last night on more economic concerns and financial worries. The Labor Department reported that Producer Price Index rose by 1.2% in July, more than double than expected and lifting the current annual rate to the highest in 27 years. Even after stripping food and energy costs, core prices rose by 0.7% which is higher than expected and biggest increase since November 2006. A slight increase in oil prices last night also made investors more nervous and decided that economic recovery is still quite far judging from the inflationary problems. More worries came from housing market as Commerce Department reported that July housing starts fell to an annual rate of 965,000 units, higher than analysts' expectation but still the lowest level in 17 years. Financial sector also took another hit as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is expected that they will need to writedown another $4 billion in Q3 and also after Goldman Sachs analyst advised against buying AIG stocks. The Dow ended lower by 130.84 pts or 1.14% to 11,348.55, S&P500 fell 11.90 pts or 0.93% to 1,266.70 and Nasdaq fell 32.62 pts or 1.35% to 2,384.36

Asian stocks have opened lower at the time of me writing this preview following weak US markets close overnight. A slight rebound in oil does not seem to help the regional markets today and higher inflation in an economic slowdown over in the US caused more worries for investors. The prolonged credit crisis in the US have caused investors to refrain from buying stocks in recent days and caused low daily turnover around the region. Oil was currently traded around $115ish per barrel, gold traded around $815.65ish and JPY traded around 109.80ish. Nikkei have opened at 12715 and rebounded straight away and currently traded around 12830 with current high at 12840.

Kospi have started the day lower at 197.10 and it reached its highest first at 198.65 before it went back down to get to current low at 196.15. Recently, Kospi was traded at around 197.50ish. Kospi may trade within this range for the rest of the day but it may go and break its current high later on with 200 as its resistance.

Hangseng have started the day lower at 20319 and it reached as low as 20305 and rebounded. Recently Hangseng is traded around 20550 after reaching its current high of 20561. Hangseng may break its current high later on after being battered quite badly for the past few sessions. Hangseng may find its support at 20200ish and its resistance at around 20700ish depending on how the China mainland markets perform too.