Jumat, 17 Oktober 2008

Asian market preview 17/10/2008

US markets continued on its high volatility ways last night and this time markets were closed to the upside by more than 4%. Markets were trading much lower early in the session as more bad economic data pushed markets downward. Investors were initially cheered by a better-than-expected reading on consumer prices. CPI for September came in flat compared to the 0.1% decline in August and the core index rose by 0.1%. Meanwhile, first time claims for unemployment declined last week. The Labor Department said new claims fell 16,000 to 461,000, below the 475,000 anticipated by economists. Still, total unemployment still points to recession. From the Philadelphia Fed, it said that regional manufacturing conditions weakened in October. The bank's regional index came in at negative 37.5 compared with a positive 3.8 for September. The news followed word from The Fed that production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities plunged 2.8% last month. Analysts believe that the current high volatilities in the markets will continue for some time as investors are really anxious about the economy. The Dow ended up by 401.35 pts or 4.68% to 8,979.26, S&P500 rose 38.59 pts or 4.25% to 946.43 while Nasdaq rose 89.38 pts or 5.49% to 1,717.71.

Asian markets may open higher today following the jump for the US markets last night and may continue to follow the high volatility path like the US markets. Better-than-expected earnings from Google and IBM may help push tech stocks in the Asian region as well. Bad economic outlook may still weigh on the markets but bargain hunting may come in and buy the already heavily discounted stocks. Crude oil prices also fell to below $70 in US trading last night and was recently traded around $69.85ish per barrel, gold traded around $804.50ish and JPY traded around 101.32ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 8800 in CME compared to the close of 8575 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher today and may get a nice rebound after steep losses yesterday to close at its lowest point of the year. Tech and chipmakers may get a boost today following better-than-expected earnings from Google and IBM in the US. The weakened Won may weigh the market though but bargain hunters may help lift the stock market today. Kospi may find its resistance at 165ish and its support at 160ish today.

Hangseng may open higher today after 2 days of heavy losses mounting to more than 12%. Bargain hunters may dominate the market as the bad economic news and figures seemed to have already been priced in. China mainland markets may also play a part to determine how the Hangseng market will perform. Low oil prices may finally play a part to boost stocks as oil went below $70, its lowest price for the past year. Hangseng may find its resistance at 16000ish and its support at 15200ish today.

Kamis, 16 Oktober 2008

Asian market preview 16/10/2008

US markets plunged again last night amid new recession concerns and that the measures taken by governments will not heal the wounded economy straight away. All markets were down more than 7% as new data points to recession if not already here, is inevitable. The sell-off began after the governments reported that retail sales plunged by 1.2%, almost double the 0.7% predicted by analysts which made it clear that consumers are reluctant to spend amid a shaky economy. Then in the afternoon came the beige book which also offered similar views regarding the economy. The report found that the economy continued to slow as financial and credit market problems became worse. Analysts predicted that volatility will remain high in these uncertain times and as the governments have used almost all measures to help the economy, investors now have to wait to see how the actions will steady the economy. The Dow plunged 733.08 pts or 7.87% to 8,577.91, S&P500 fell 90.17 pts or 9.03% to 907.84 while Nasdaq fell 150.68 pts or 8.47% to 1,628.33.

Asian markets will open lower again today following the plunge in US markets last night as investors fear of recession. Markets around the region may be hit hard again and may visit this year's low, which was formed on 10th October again today as the fear of a prolonged global recession may make investors to hold cash instead of stocks right now. Crude oil prices also plunged overnight as fears of reduced demands make investors flee. Oil was recently traded around $73.50ish per barrel, gold traded around $845ish and JPY traded around 99.60ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 8500 in CME compared to the close of 9320 here yesterday.

Kospi may open lower again today as US markets plunged overnight and may continue its losses and may even visit this year's low again. Investors' confidence have been hit pretty hard the past month and with this growing fear of global recession, investors may run away to safety instead of holding stocks. Local corporate earnings may help or may even make things worse if earnings are bad. Kospi may find its support at 160ish and if it breached that level, it may find resistance at 155ish. It may find its resistance at 165ish today.

Hangseng may open lower today amid growing concerns of a global recession. Hangseng have plunged 5% yesterday and may extend its decline today as regional markets may put pressure on its movement. The Hong Kong government will take every measures to prevent Hong Kong to become affected by the crisis, but it cannot avoid global recession. Hangseng may find its support at 14500ish and its resistance at 15200ish today.

Rabu, 15 Oktober 2008

Asian market preview 15/10/2008

US markets ended a relatively calm day with modest loss on profit taking after posted its biggest gains in history the day before. Financial stocks surged again last night as bargain hunters still buy into the already battered stocks. Investors remained nervous about the whole economic situation and the fears of global recession still become the theme for markets. Analysts have mixed opinion of whether or not we have reached the bottom. It seems that the government plan is beginning to work as banks are starting to become more willing to lend to one another as shown by the slight drop in Libor rate from 4.75% to 4.64%. In the US, Nasdaq was hit worst as investors are nervous, waiting for Intel's results. The Dow ended lower by 76.62 pts or 0.82% to 9,310.99, S&P500 fell 5.34 pts or 0.53% to 998.01 while Nasdaq fell 65.24 pts or 3.54% to 1,779.01.

Asian markets may open slightly lower following the profit taking session that took place in the US last night. Markets around the region may also have similar reaction as it has rallied big time for the past 2 days. Investors still remain cautious about the whole economic situation and they may want to wait further as more economic data to come out of the US this week. Markets may move with quite a high volatility today. Oil was recently traded around $78.87ish per barrel, gold traded around $842.10ish and JPY traded 102.04ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 9440 in CME last night compared to the close of 9660 here yesterday.

Kospi may open slightly lower today and profit taking may come in as investors want to lock in profits after recent big gains in the market. Chip makers may be boosted after Intel posted better-than-expected Q3 results and it seems that Intel is little affected by the whole financial crisis situation. Trading may be highly volatile as it has been for the past 2 weeks today as uncertainty still lingers. Kospi may find its support at 173ish and its resistance at 180ish today.

Hangseng may open lower today and may continue lower for a bit for some profit taking action. The drop in oil to below $80 per barrel may be a bonus to refiners and ease inflationary concerns but the outlook with the whole global economy is still gloomy. Analysts predicted that Hangseng will swing wildly within 5000 range for the next few months as investors are trying to find solid ground with the whole situation. Chinese mainland markets may also dominate how well Hangseng may perform today. Hangseng may find its support at 16500ish and its resistance at 17300ish today.

Selasa, 14 Oktober 2008

Asian market preview 14/10/2008

US markets posted the biggest gains in history in terms of percentage and points term last night. Most markets soared up more than 11% after the government, along with other government globally guarantee bank deposits and buying stakes in banks directly. The Fed has also allowed to flood the global financial system with dollars. Investors are rushing back to stocks as it has been discounted significantly in the past week and news about the implementation of $700 billion package only added to the investors' optimism. Analysts believed that current levels is closer to the bottom but has not yet reached the very bottom. There are still a long road ahead before investors' confidence is fully restored as economic data is to come next in the coming days. The Dow soared 936.42 pts or 11.08% to 9,387.61, S&P500 soared 104.13 pts or 11.58% to 1,003.35 while Nasdaq rose 194.74 pts or 11.81% to 1,844.25.

Asian markets may open higher today following the biggest 1-day gainers by US markets overnight. Japanese markets may play catch up today after it was closed yesterday as regional markets rallied. Governments' plans to save banks globally may still have impact after the US also followed to guarantee bank deposits and to buy stakes in banks. Oil prices also soared as global rallies bring optimism to investors. Oil was recently traded around $81.19ish per barrel, gold traded around $842.50ish and JPY traded around 102.20ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 8990 in CME last night compared to the close of 7870 here on Friday and 8605 yesterday on a shortened trading session.

Kospi may open higher today and may add to yesterday's gains as the US markets posted a huge rally last night. Governments worldwide are trying to save banks and to get credit flowing again. Kospi may find its resistance at 180ish today and its support at 172ish.

Hangseng may open higher today and may add to yesterday's gains as US markets rallied the most in history on speculation that the governments' measures to save banks will finally unclog the frozen credit markets. However, yesterday Hangseng have risen more than 10%, it may not add as much today as there are also still some uncertainties linger on the air. Hangseng may find its resistance at 17200ish today and its support at 16500ish.

Sabtu, 11 Oktober 2008

Asian market preview 13/09/2008

US markets ended a very volatile day on Friday mixed With Nasdaq market ending mildly in positive territory. Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded the wildest swing ever with over 1000 points swing in the day. It started down almost 700 pts then rallied back up to gain more 100 pts before plunging back into negative territory. It spent most of the time down 300-500 pts before in the final hour, it rallied more than 700 pts and closed down 180 pts. Analysts believed that it was better than the previous 7 trading sessions and that investors are trying to bottom fish at current levels. Investors are taking chances ahead of the G-7 meeting to be held over the weekend to discuss the economic meltdown. Investors believed that one of the potential remedies is for governments to guarantee lending among banks. Within a week, The Dow have lost 18.2% and have lost 40.3% since hitting its highest peak a year ago. Analysts believe that trading will remain volatile in the next few weeks, but some brave long term investors are starting to enter the markets at current levels as nobody wants to miss markets' bottom. The Dow ended down by 128 pts or 1.49% to 8,451.49, S&P500 fell 10.70 pts or 1.18% to 899.22 while Nasdaq rose 4.39 pts or 0.27% to 1,649.51.

Asian markets may open mildly lower after losing so much percentage points on Friday. A mild 1%ish drop for US markets may means that markets around Asia may even starting to turn around and have a short-term rally. Depending on the outcome of the G-7 meeting, markets around Asia may even have quite a rally today. Oil prices also dropped on Friday to below $80 per barrel and marked the lowest price for a year. Lower oil prices means lower inflation for countries around Asia and that may give further boost to the stock markets. Oil was recently traded around $77.70ish per barrel, gold traded around $859ish and JPY traded around 100.50ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 8120 in CME compared to the close of 7870 here on Friday. Nikkei will be closed today for holidays.

Kospi may open rather flat today and may go up today following the modest drop in the US. The markets have been heavily oversold in the past week and bargain hunters may start to come in and starts buying stocks for long term. Many analysts have already pushed their investors by saying that it is the best time to enter into the stock market at any time since markets were coming down way too fast and governments around the world are working tirelessly to find a solution to the current situation. However, market may still be very volatile like Friday's session where Kospi was down 9% at one point before rebounding up to close lower by 4%. Kospi may find its support at 160ish today and its resistance at 167ish.

Hangseng may open rather flat with upward bias today following the mild drop in the US and after investors showed some kind of enthusiasm to buy stocks again. Many analysts believe that the bottom is near and a rebound is due to happen anytime soon. Long term investors may want to start early and may start buying stocks at current level. Lower oil prices may also help to boost markets in Hong Kong and China. Howecer, China mainland markets may also play a significant part to determine whether Hangseng will have a huge rally or will it be stopped halfway and go back down again. Hangseng may find its support at 14700ish and its resistance at 15700ish today.

Jumat, 10 Oktober 2008

Asian market preview 10/10/2008

US markets tumbled for the 7th straight session, posting its lowest close in 5 years on the anniversary when the markets hit its highest point just one year ago. Markets plunged in the final hour of trading, after S&P ratings services put GM and its finance affiliate GMAC LLC under review to see if its rating should be cut. GM has been struggling with weak car sales in North America. S&P also put Ford Motor Co. on credit watch negative. Credit markets are still frozen despite a combined efforts by central banks worldwide to cut interest rates to stimulate investors' confidence. Libor, tha bank-to-bank lending rate remains stubbornly high, rose to 4.75% from 4.52% on Wednesday and until that starts to come down, it will be hard to get investors excited about stocks again. Almost 3000 stocks fell on NYSE and less than 250 advanced. The Dow plunged 678.91 pts or 7.3% to 8579.19, S&P500 fell 75.02 pts or 7.6% to 909.92 while Nasdaq fell 95.21 pts or 5.5% to 1,645.12. Analysts believe that the markets are way oversold but has yet to determine its real bottom now.

Asian markets may open lower yet again today and may come under pressure again as selling and fears gripped markets worldwide. Most investors are choosing to get out of stocks at any price as more uncertainty looms in the fate of global economy. Oil prices also fell as investors predict weaker demand in this kind of sluggish economic conditions. Gold price meanwhile is predicted to go back beyond $1000 per troy ounce and may even go towards $2000 within the next year as some analysts believe. Oil was recently traded around $84.90ish per barrel, gold traded around $918ish and JPY traded around $99.50ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 8620 in CME compared to the close of 9300 here yesterday.

Kospi may open lower today after staging a slight recovery rally yesterday on new found optimism over coordinated global rate cuts. However, investors are still nervous and may be in fear yet again today following another massive sell-off in the US last night. Kospi may even fall below 160 mark today if investors are afraid enough and do not want to hold stocks over the weekend. Kospi may find its support at160ish today and its next support may be at 157ish while its resistance at 167ish.

Hangseng may open lower today and may fall after staging more than 3% rally yesterday on global rate cuts optimism. Hangseng may fall below the 15000 mark today and may even test the 14700 levels. Chinese markets may also determine whether Hangseng will fall more deeply or it can contain the freefall for Hangseng. Hangseng may find its support at 14700ish and its resistance at 15500ish today.

Kamis, 09 Oktober 2008

Asian market preview 09/10/2008

US markets tumbled for the sixth straight session after an emergency rate cut failed to sustain markets' rally during the morning session. Markets initially rallied up after The Fed joined ECB, BOE, Bank of Canada, Swedish Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rate in an unprecedented move to battle credit freeze. After a while, markets zig-zagged in and out of positive and negative territory before finally gave up its gains in the final 30 minutes after Henry Paulson's comments stating that it could take weeks before the $700 billion bill starts to buy troubled mortgage-backed assets from banks. Global recession fears around the world have sent global markets tumbled down for the past week and yesterday alone, some markets lost over 10% and was shut down early. It is hard to determine the real bottom in this situation, although as we see, stocks are generally at bargain prices at these levels. Investors' confidence have to be restored before any stock markets rally can be sustained. Meanwhile, troubled insurance giant AIG will be granted an additional $37.8 billion in additional liquidity from New York Fed. Earning season have started too in the US and Alcoa gave a lower-than-expected profit while IBM's early report stated that it beat expectations. The Dow ended lower by 189.01 pts or 2% to 9,258.10, S&P500 fell 11.29 pts or 1.13% to 984.94 while Nasdaq fell 14.55 pts or 0.83% to 1,740.33.

Asian markets may open lower again today, but may limit its losses after mounting several heavy losses for the past week. The combined rate cut efforts performed by central banks worldwide may help give some comfort to investors and may breathe life to the stock markets around Asia today. However, volatility may still be very high as investors are still very much concerns regarding the overall global economic outlook. More steps are being arranged by central banks around the world to unclog the credit market so that banks would want to lend money more freely. Oil prices also dropped overnight, it is recently traded around $88.81ish per barrel and it eases inflation concerns around the world. Gold was recently traded around $907.50ish as investors seek have haven. JPY was recently traded around 99.50ish and Nikkei futures was closed at 9200 in CME compared to the close of 9165 here yesterday.

Kospi may open lower today but may turn to the upside following the rate cuts peformed by central banks worldwide last night. Some bargain hunting may also emerge if there's enough positive news around Asia to fuel a stock market rally today. Volatility may still be high today as investors are still very much fearful regarding the uncertainty of global economy but generally, Kospi have performed slightly better than other markets. Kospi may find its resistance around 170ish and its support at 160ish today.

Hangseng may open slightly higher and may perform a rally today after Hong Kong's central bank announced that they will cut interest rate by 100 bps today. The combined rate cuts peformed last night may also give reasons for investors to buy the already cheap stocks today. Technically, markets around the region are bound for a rebound, it's just a matter of time when will investors be confident enough to buy stocks and sustain markets' rally. Chinese markets may also set to rebound today after Chinese bank announced that it will start slashing rates to stimulate more growth to the economy. Hangseng may find its support at 14700 and its resistance at 16000ish today.

Indonesian stock market was closed early yesterday after it plunved more than 10% to its lowest close this year at 1,451.67. Market may find some life today if regional markets are strong enough to sustain a rally fueled by emergency rate cuts around the world. However, as investors' confidence have been hurt badly in recent days, market may still get heavy selling pressures. IHSG will still be closed today as market's officials are trying to determine when to open up the market again. If market is open today, it may find support at 1,400ish and resistance at 1,470ish today.