Asian market preview 04/08/2008

US markets were closed lower on Friday after another decline in jobs, flat manufacturing activity and a massive quarterly loss at General Motors. Despite the pullback, markets were calmer than the first 4 days of the week when The Dow had triple digit losses or gains over good economic data or bad news from financial sector. Friday's report was not as bad as anticipated as they portrayed that the economy is still sagging in 2nd half of the year. The Labor Department said that jobs fell for 7th straight month to 51,000 which was less than expected but unemployment rate rose greater-than-expected 5.7%. The report came after jobless claims jumped unexpectedly to a five-year high on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity was flat in July and Commerce Department reported that building activity decline in June. Oil price also rose $1.02 to $125.10 per barrel but have retreated from an earlier spike of more than $4. The Dow fell 51.70 pts or 0.45% to 11,326.32, S&P500 fell 7.07 pts or 0.56% to 1,260.31 while Nasdaq fell 14.59 pts or 0.63% to 2,310.96.

Asian markets may open lower today following another string of weak economic data which came out of the US on Friday. With oil prices rose again, halting the decline, investors may come to think that the prospect of oil prices to drop below $100 in near term is still quite far. However, Asian markets may shrug off the negative start to the day if oil prices stabilize again and if the prospect of earnings around the region is still positive. Oil was recently traded around $125.80ish per barrel, gold traded around $911.25ish and JPY traded around 107.50ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 13110 in CME compared to the close of 13125 here on Friday.

Kospi may start the day lower today and may even breach the 200 mark if investors get into selling mood at the 1st day of the trading week. Kospi was recently been battered quite bad even with regional positive boost. If Kospi managed to stay above 200 mark, it may stabilize and may even go higher later on in the day. Volatility may be high as investors are still struggling with the prospect of higher oil and more financial troubles from the US and disappointing local earnings.

Hangseng may open lower today at around 22700ish. However, with strong China markets outlook, Hangseng may even turn the decline into positive thing later on in the session as it did on Friday. Investors may already take into account the higher oil prices and they're expecting the Chinese government will enforce the economic growth in near term rather than fight inflation. With Olympic games approaching, China markets may also get a positive boost and that may help Hangseng. Hangseng may find its support at 22600 and its resistance at 23200 today.

Asian market preview 31/07/2008

US markets closed sharply higher last night in a volatile trade as markets did a late rally near the closing bell. The rebound in financial sector and optimism about private job sector led the rally as bank and brokerages, many trading at multiyear lows, led the late advance. There was some relief in the market after The Fed said it would extend and expand its program to lend money to investment banks which reassured the market that banks would have cash if needed. Investors have been worried that some of Wall St's biggest names may need more capital after Merril Lynch & Co. unexpectedly announced a $5.7 billion writedown on Monday. Earlier, Automatic Data Processing said private sector employment rose by 9,000 this month and that data cheered Wall St and offset a big spike in oil prices where oil rose $4.58 to settle at $126.77. The Dow ended up by 186.13 or 1.63% to 11,583.69, S&P500 rose 21.06 pts or 1.67% to 1,284.26 while Nasdaq rose 10.10 pts or 0.44% to 2,329.72.

Asian markets may open higher today and may continue yesterday's rally on optimism that US banks will have financial aid from The Fed if needed and after US markets' strong close for 2nd straight day last night. The spike in oil prices may cause markets around the region to fluctuate but overall sentiment may stay positive for the rest of the day. Dollar gained strength against major currencies and that will help exporters around the region too. Oil was recently traded around $126.74ish per barrel, gold traded around $906.30ish and JPY traded around 108.10ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 13470 in CME compared to the close of 13400 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher today and may get stronger rally than yesterday after optimism from the US markets may help investors confidence in South Korea. The spike in oil prices may drag the market a bit but overall sentiment may stay positive after US markets closed sharply higher for 2 days in a row. Kospi may open up around 206ish and may have its resistance around 208ish and its support around 204ish.

Hangseng may open higher again today and I'll be talking about Hangseng new contract here. Since the new contract ended at 22797 yesterday, it may open up around 22900ish today and may try to breach the 23000 level today should investors get confident enough. The spike in oil may drag refiners stocks such as Sinpoec and PetroChina but may boost the biggest offshore producers CNOOC. China mainland markets may also determine the overall direction for Hangseng market today. Hangseng may find its resistance at 23200 and its support at 22700 today.

Asian market preview 29/07/2008

US markets were closed sharply lower last night as investors again become anxious regarding the financial sector. Financials, which had rallied in the past few weeks, suffered the same worries about souring debts and Wall St is concerned that further withering of housing and credit markets will damage banks' balance sheets. An IMF report also added some stress to the market as they predicted continuing problems in the credit and housing markets will continue to hurt the financial industry. The IMF also said that at the moment, a bottom for housing market is not visible. The closing of branches of the 1st National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank N.A. by federal officials on Friday also adds worries for investors about the ability of some banks to stay afloat. Upcoming economic data that will be important to take note of are the first report on gross domestic product for Q2 to come out on Thursday which was predicted to rise. Employment report for June to come out on Friday and regarded as the most important economic readings of the month because of the insight into the well-being of the consumer. Unemployment is expected to rise too. The Dow plunged 239.61 pts or 2.11% to 11,131.08 and was back into bear market territory. S&P500 fell 23.29 pts or 1.86% to 1,234.37 while Nasdaq fell 46.31 pts or 2% to 2,264.22.

Asian markets may open lower yet again today and may slide further as more worries from the US markets may spill over and caused investors fears and run for safety. Oil prices rebounded last night and that may also adds more reasons for investors to selloff stocks. Investors are fearing that the slowdown in the US' economy and 'meltdown' for US banks may caused problems on the world scale. However, for countries like Indonesia, I think they are not too affected by the US as the market there are dominated by commodities. Oil was recently traded around $125ish per barrel, gold traded around $931.10ish and JPY traded around 107.45ish. Nikkei was closed at 13350 here yesterday.

Kospi may open lower today at around 204ish and may slide further as investors are becoming nervous regarding the well being of the global economy. In recent days, Kospi also find it hard to get momentum back to rally after the country reported higher GDP and higher inflation risk. It may go towards the 200 level today if investors are finding no reason to buy into stocks.

Hangseng may open lower today at around 22400ish and may slide further on fears that problems in the US are far from over and may spill over to the Asia region. However, with China's government showing that they will ease monetary tightening, selling pressure maybe reduced in Hong Kong and China markets may play a part to limit the downside pressure in the Hangseng market. Hangseng may find its support at 22000 today and its resistance at 22700.

Asian market preview 28/07/2008

US markets were closed with uneven gains on Friday after better-than-expected economic data helped boosted the markets which were plummeted a day earlier by concerns about housing and financial sector. Financials continued to drift lower on Friday on worries about the health of balance sheets, while a surge in profits for Juniper Networks Inc. boosted technology stocks. Commerce Department reported that orders sent to factories for big-ticket items such as cars rose by 0.8% in June, the strongest gain in 4 months and ahead of Wall St's expectations. Commerce Department also showed that new home sales declined by smaller-than-expected 0.6%. While it marked 7th decline in the past 8 months, the reading gave some hope that the housing market could be finding a bottom. Investors sell-off stocks on Thursday on weaker reading on existing home sales. There are also good news about consumer spendings as University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment came in at 61.2 while economists forecast a reading of 56.4. And the continued decline for oil, which was settled at $123.26 also helped boost markets sentiment on Friday. The Dow rose 21.41 pts or 0.19% to 11,370.69, S&P500 rose 5.22 pts or 0.42% to 1,257.76 while Nasdaq jumped 30.42 pts or 1.33% to 2,310.53. For the week, Dow fell 1.09% and S&P500 lost 0.23% while Nasdaq was up 1.22%.

Asian markets may open higher today following better economic readings in the US on Friday and also lower oil prices may boost investors' confidence today. Markets may continue their rally from last week as investors may start buying stocks on speculation that with lower oil, companies may get better profit margins in the coming months. Oil was recently traded around $123.23 per barrel, gold traded around $928.55ish and JPY traded around 107.89ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 13460 in CME compared to the close of 13320 here on Friday.

Kospi may open higher today and may continue the rally from last week on lower oil. Kospi was closed lower on Friday on speculation that US markets may continue to be weak and investors were taking their profit off the table. However, with better-than-expected economic readings came out of the US on Friday, Kospi may continue its rally from last week. Lower oil prices may also help to boost investors' confidence today. Kospi may try to breach the 210 mark again today if investors are confident enough.

Hangseng may open higher today following better US economic data on Friday. Hangseng was closed lower on Friday after gaining more than 1,000 pts for the past week on profit taking. Today, Hangseng may continue higher and may again close above 23,000 mark. Lower oil prices may play a part in determining how well the market will perform and also China mainland markets may also help Hangseng on how well it will perform today. Hangseng may find its support at 22700 and its resistance at 23200 today.

Asian market preview 25/07/2008

US markets tumbled more than 2% overnight after sales of existing homes fell more than expected and also after jobless claims shot up beyond 400,000 last week as companies slashed employments to cope with slowing economy. Financial shares had their worst drop in 8 years as investors punished them and home builders after some disappointing government reports. The optimism built over the past few sessions on good earnings reports have faded in an instant and investors were brought back down to earth. Mixed earnings from Ford Motor and Dow Chemical, which reported weaker-than-expected earnings also soured the mood of investors. Drugmakers and Amazon Inc. however posted better results for Q2. Investors were driven by profit taking and also fears that the worst is far from over after Bill Gross predicted that housing slump will cost banks and brokerages $1 trillion and we're still less than halfway over. The Dow ended lower by 283.10 pts or 2.43% to 11,349.28, S&P500 fell 29.65 pts or 2.31% to 1,252.54 while Nasdaq fell 45.77 pts or 1.97% to 2,280.11.

Asian markets may open lower today after gaining for the past few sessions. Markets around the region may open lower and fall further after skepticism resurfaced as housing slump continues in the US. Oil also have regained ground last night, gaining almost $2 back above $125 per barrel. Profit taking may dominate asian markets today as today being a Friday and investors may want to enjoy profits. Oil was recently traded around $125.61 per barrel, gold traded around $927.55 and JPY traded around 107.40ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 13420 in CME compared to the close of 13565 here yesterday.

Kospi may open lower today following the sharp drop in US markets and may fall even further after the news regarding South Korean GDP which rose more than expected. GDP rose 0.8% vs an estimated of 0.7% rise this quarter on higher oil. High inflation fears may spark more concerns for investors and may provide more reasons to sell stocks today and reap some profits over the previous sessions of gains. Kospi may fall back towards 205 level if investors are taking this opportunity to get out of the market.

Hangseng may open lower following US cues overnight which indicated that the condition have not stabilize yet for US financials sector. Hangseng may open below 23000 and may go towards 22500 today if investors decided to enjoy profits ahead of the weekend. Over the past week, Hangseng have risen more than 1,000 points and I think it is the right time for investors to reap some profits before more bad news came out of the US. The drop in existing home sales in the US indicated that housing slump is far from over. China markets may also play a part in determining on how low will the market. Hangseng may find resistance at 23000 today and support at 22500.

Asian market preview 24/07/2008

US markets were closed stronger again last night following the drop in oil to below $125 per barrel. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's rescue plan by the government also boosted up investors' confidence and helped the financial sector to rally further last night. Good earnings reports from AT&T and Pfizer Inc. addded more reasons for investors to buy stocks and helped make market recovery and lifted it from bear market territory. Stocks have been battered in the past few weeks, so any piece of good news will spark strong buying into that company and the whole sector. Oil prices fell 3.1% to $124.44 per barrel, dropping below $125 for the first time in six weeks, after reports saying that fuel stockpiles increased as consumption fell to the lowest in a year. Dollar rally against major currencies also pushed commodities prices lower. Investors still feared of more bad earnings to come but if oil keep sliding down further, earnings report will be secondary as investors will find more confidence with the drop in oil, earnings will improve in next quarter. The Dow rose 29.88 pts or 0.3% to 11,632.38, S&P500 rose 5.19 pts or 0.4% to 1,282.19 while Nasdaq rose 21.92 pts or 1% to 2,325.88.

Asian markets may open higher today and extend their rallies from yesterday with more positive news coming out of the US and the US markets are able to extend their rally on lower oil. More earnings optimism from the US may help extend the rally further in Asia markets too as investors might see that earnings are not as bad as what they've been anticipating in recent weeks. Oil producers may be hurting as oil prices dropped more than $20 since last week but general market sentiment may be positive with less inflationary concerns. Oil was recently traded around $124.46ish per barrel, gold traded around $920.75ish and JPY traded around 107.90ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 13500 in CME compared to the close of 13425 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher today and may extend yesterday's rally following another steep drop in oil prices and also better-than-expected earnings season that continues in the US. Investors may gain more confidence with the overall global economy as some analysts even suggested that markets may have reached its bottom. Kospi may even try the 210 level today if investors are confident enough and may go beyond that too as stocks have been battered so bad that these times can be counted as bargain hunting session.

Hangseng may open higher at around 23400ish and may rally further if investors are confident enough to buy more into stocks as oil prices decline further. More earnings optimism from China mainland and also from Hongkong itself may help boost investors to buy more stocks. Sinopec and PetroChina may rally further while CNOOC may go down as oil prices slide to below $125 per barrel. Hangseng may find its resistance at 23700 today and its support at around 23200 region.

Asian market preview 23/07/2008

US markets closed sharply higher last night after oil tumbled more than $3 per barrel, bringing the decline to nearly $20 per barrel in the past week. Markets were initially in sour mood after American Express missed earnings estimate and also after Apple issued a weaker-than-expected forecast for the current quarter. However, after oil fell $3.09 to settle at $127.95 per barrel, the general markets were encouraged to rally up. Analysts are certain that many earnings report will still be bad, but if oil continue to slide down, the market in general will be boosted up and the impact of bad earnings are localized to the corresponding companies. Bargain hunting dominated the markets last night with financial sector led the way up after it had been battered for the past few weeks. Even Wachovia Corp. shot 27% higher after the stocks initially was pummeled to levels not seen in 1990s, after the company reported $8.9 billion loss because of charges and reserves for bad mortgage loans. The Dow rose 135.16 pts or 1.18% to 11,602.50, S&P500 rose 17 pts or 1.35% to 1,277.00 while Nasdaq rose 24.43 pts or 1.07% to 2,303.96. After-hours, Washington Mutual Inc. and E-Trade Financial Corp. reported losses after boosting reserves to cover bad loans.

Asian markets may open higher today following the drop in oil and rally in the US markets last night. Investors may find more optimism and more reason to buy into stock markets after oil continued its slide from last week. Investors may be hoping that with lower oil prices, companies' earnings may pick up by itself later on. Bad earnings keep coming out of the US big companies but now earnings report seem to have lost its dominance over the market in general as oil going towards $120 level. Oil was recently traded around $128.50 per barrel, gold traded around $946.45ish and JPY traded around 107.19ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 13340 in CME last night compared to the close of 13095 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher today following the new optimism found in the US caused by oil's tumble. With US$ strengthening against major currencies, exporters may rally today along with other stocks in general and financials may lead the rally. Kospi may open around 204ish and may find its resistance at 208ish today and may find its support at 203ish. Investors may still be cautious ahead of the busy earnings week in the US as with just a piece of bad news, investors may find reasons to lock in their profit.

Hangseng may open higher at around 22700ish today following the higher close in the US markets and after oil tumbled further. Oil refiners such as Sinopec and PetroChina may be boosted with lower oil prices while CNOOC may be battered as oil prices fell sharply. Financials may be boosted again today and exporters may also rally up. Hangseng may try to get to 23000 if market sentiment remains positive for the rest of the day. China markets may also play a part in determining whether the market is strong enough to get to the 23000 level today. Hangseng may find its support at 22500ish and its resistance at 23000 today.