Asian market preview 21/05/2008

US markets tumbled overnight with the rising oil prices sparked more inflation worries as oil surged beyond $129 per barrel last night. Investors are turning their attention to oil and posted concerns about how the rising energy prices will affect the recovering of the economy. OPEC said that they won't increase output and it sparked the oil price rally as investors think that supply won't meet demand. The PPI data also didn't help investors as it showed that inflation is rising more than analysts' estimate. Wholesale inflation rose 0.2% and excluding food and energy, it rose 0.4%. Banking stocks also fell last night after analyst Meredith Whitney said she expects the credit crisis to extend into 2009 and that banks may have another $170 billion in writedowns of their assets. The benefiting sector in this situation is again oil producers such as Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhilips. Another negative news also come from The Fed where they're watching inflation now and indicated that they're most likely to keep rates steady for now. The Dow ended down by 199.48 pts or 1.53% to 12828.68, S&P500 fell 13.23 pts or 0.93% to 1413.40 and Nasdaq fell 23.83 pts or 0.95% to 2492.26.

Asian markets may open lower today and may extend yesterday losses for major markets. High oil price and other commodity prices may spur inflation concerns and these seem to be the main issues for now. Dollar weakness against major currencies such as JPY may also drag exporter stocks down today. I think there may be quite a major correction happened today after markets recovered from its lowest points in mid-March. Oil was recently traded around $128.86ish per barrel, gold traded around $920ish and JPY traded around 103.66ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 14020 in CME compared to the close of 14130 here yesterday.

Kospi may open lower between 239-240 today after edging down yesterday. It may extend losses as investors may want to lock in profits as market tumble. High oil prices won't help the market as South Korea is one of the biggest oil importer. Banking and financials may also take a hit after more credit concerns sparked out of the US. Kospi may fall towards 234ish as its strong support point but may rise up towards 242ish as its first resistance.

Hangseng may open lower today and may extend losses after tumbling yesterday. It may open around 24900ish and may fall more towards 24700 as its first major support point. China mainland markets may also affect the Hangseng market as investors may want to see the real impact of the earthquake. High crude prices may hurt oil refiners as it cut into their profit margins. If Hangseng able to breach the 24700 mark, it may fall towards 24500. If Hangseng able to recover, the 25000 may become its first resistance today. We're talking about the Hangseng futures here and the money market were about 70ish pts more than the futures market.

Asian market preview 20/05/2008

US markets ended the session mixed last night after a pullback in tech sector erased most of the day's gains. SanDisk caused the tech sector to soften last night after saying that the rising energy prices hurt sales as people curbed their spending to pay more for oil. Financial sector was hurt too after Citigroup reduced earnings estimates on Wall St biggest firms such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Bros. The sector which gets a boost last night with record breaking oil prices is oil players such as Exxon and Chevron which climbed almost 2%. Positive news came from Conference Board's leading economic indicator which climbed 0.1% in April, following the similar rise in March. Investors are relieved and believe more that the economy is bound for a rebound in second half of the year. Dow finished up by 41.36 pts or 0.32% to 13028.16 after rising more than 150 pts during the day. S&P500 climbed 1.28 pts or 0.09% to 1426.63 while Nasdaq fell 12.76 pts or 0.5% to 2516.09.

Asian markets may open around yesterday's close today after a mixed session on Wall St last night. High crude oil price may not bring much joy to the markets today as it sparked more inflationary problems. Tech sector may be lower today after more worries came out from the US regarding the damage made by high energy and commodity prices. Oil was recently traded around $127.25ish per barrel, gold traded around $905.50ish and JPY traded around 104.30ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 14300 in CME last night compared to the close of 14255 here yesterday.

Kospi may open slightly higher today around 243-244ish but the gains may not last very long today. Kospi needed fresh and strong market moving news to get past the 247 level to get towards 250. Today however, may be another mixed session with high oil prices weighing down the market. Tech sector may also be dragged after SanDisk reported bad sales in April. Market may face lots of profit taking issues if it come towards 246ish level.

Hangseng may open rather flat with a slight upwards bias around 25700 today. However, high oil prices may eat away the uptrend today and may make investors enjoy some profit after Hangseng index market recover towards 25800 level. Hangseng may still turn to China markets today and market volume may still be quite thin as there are lacking fresh new leads to push market higher towards the 26000 level. For futures market, it may face lots of selling pressure when it comes towards 25800 level but it will face a strong support down at 25500 level.

Asian market preview 19/05/2008

US markets were closed mixed on Friday as investors were worried with the surging energy prices that overshadowed the surprise increase in home construction. Investors were cheered when commerce dept's report that home construction jumped 8.2% in April but were sidetracked as energy and food prices keep climbing up which in their opinion will affect consumer spending. Oil reached its highest yet again at $127.82 per barrel and it's weighing on the mood of consumers. The Michigan consumer sentiment reading fell to 59.5 in May, the weakest since June 1980. Analysts said that investors are worried that the economy recovery expected in 2nd half will be derailed if energy and food prices keep climbing up. The Dow ended down 5.86 pts or 0.05% to 12986.80 and ended the week higher 1.89%.S&P500 ticked up 1.78 pts or 0.13% to 1425.35 and ended the week higher by 2.7%. Nasdaq fell 4.88 pts or 0.19% to 2528.85 and ended the week higher by 3.41%. Gold and other metal prices also rose with China Quake is still in focus while Dollar fell against major currencies.

Asian markets may open quite flat today and most markets may trade in narrow range today as there are lack of market moving news from the US and China. Investors may focus on the ever rising crude price, which also affect the rise in food price and the impact it will bring to the region's inflation issues. Crude oil started Monday trade at around $126.30ish per barrel, gold traded around $903.35ish and JPY traded around 104.10ish. Nikkei futures were closed at 14310 in CME compared to the close of 14340 here on Friday.

Kospi may open rather flat around 244ish and may rise with Merril Lynch said that the stocks prices in Korea is cheap. However, with lack of fresh market moving news, the rise today maybe modest and investors may also want to take some profit should the market rise too much. High crude price may also impact the market and may drive market lower as it will affect consumer spending.

Hangseng may open quite flat tracking regional markets at around 25600ish today and any rise in the market may be led by cement and other metal producers on the wake of China quake and the need of rebuilding over in the region. Investors may turn to China market for more news regarding the quake after new tremors hit the region on Sunday and more market moving news as there are lack of fresh news which will boost the Hangseng from US. Trading range maybe thin today with 25800 seen as a near term resistance and 25400 as near term support with 25200 as a very strong support point. It'll be no surprise if investors decided to lock in profit with high crude price affecting the way investors look at the overall market and inflation issues.

Asian market preview 16/05/2008

US markets closed higher last night as chipmakers boost markets after analysts said that chipmakers will benefit from rising global demand and also said that energy shares are cheap compared to crude prices. Markets also rose after crude prices drop again today easing inflationary concern. Positive news came from all directions as Philly Fed said that regional manufacturing activity is contracting at a slower pace in May compared to April. Deals are also being made for GE and CBS and this showed that companies are able to make strategic purchases and sales. Tech sector got a boost from Intel, rising 4.7% after Lehman Bros analyst lifted its price target, citing strong product demand. There are some worrisome news too as nationwide industrial output sank again in April by 0.7% due to cutbacks in automotive and other manufacturing industries. The Labor Department also said that the number of jobless claims rose last week by 6000 to 371k, suggesting that the labor market remains weak but still within analysts' estimates. The Dow ended up by 94.28 pts or 0.73% to 12992.66, S&P500 rose 14.91 pts or 1.06% to 1423.57 while Nasdaq rose 37.03 pts or 1.48% to 2533.73.

Asian markets may open stronger again today following more positive news and outlook from the US and after oil prices went lower last night. The economic news from the US suggesting that they're on the process of skirting recession. Oil was recently traded around $124.30ish per barrel, gold traded around $881.70ish and JPY traded around 104.86ish. Nikkei futures settled at 14340 in CME last night compared to the close of 14290 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher and may extend yesterday's 2% rally today following more good news from the US and boost from the tech and chipmaker sectors. If more positive news to come out of South Korea, Kospi may try to go towards the 250 level today. However, as today is a Friday, investors may want to lock in recent profit as Kospi has recently gain quite a lot. Volatility may be high and Kospi may range between 242ish-247ish.

Hangseng may open higher again today following the gains in the US and also regional market strength. Hangseng have been doing V-shaped movement for the past 2 days, being down in the morning and recover in 2nd session. Hangseng may open up around 25600ish and may go towards 25800ish. If Hangseng can breach 25850, it may go towards 26000 today. However, profit taking may yet again dominate the market today as investors may also still be looking to China markets for news and the impact of the giant quake that shook China on Monday. If Hangseng fall again, 25000 should hold a strong support point.

Asian market preview 15/05/2008

US markets closed higher last night after a milder-than-expected US inflation data spurred a rally in the equity markets. CPI rose 0.2% in April, after rising 0.3% in the previous month. Investors interpreted this data as a good sign because The Fed will have more room to stimulate the economy. Consumer spending did not rise as much although oil and food prices climbed to its highest. Oil and gold prices also fell last night as Dollar was mixed against major currencies. Some analysts are still pessimistic about the recent gains in the equity markets, saying that recent rallies do not justify that Wall St has conquered its problems and is set for a rebound from months of turmoil because, there's still one sector that's left behind, which is financials. The Dow rose 66.20 pts or 0.51% to 12898.38, after rising more than 150 pts during the day. A late sell-off in tech sector caused market to give up some of its gains. S&P500 rose 5.62 pts or 0.40% to 1408.66 while Nasdaq rose 1.58 pts or 0.06% to 2496.70.

Asian markets may open higher today following better-than-expected US inflation data which means that The Fed still has some breathing space to stimulate the economy. Lower oil prices may also help boost the markets today and gains in Dollar may help exporters rally. Oil was recently traded around $124ish per barrel, gold traded around $864.65ish and JPY traded around 105.04ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 14240 in CME last night compared to the close of 14125 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher today and may extend yesterday's mild gains on US inflation data. The data may give investors more confident to get back into the equity markets. Seeing how presistent the market is in recent days, it's not possible that the market may test the 242 mark today. Market volatility may be high if investors are choosing to lock in profits when they're in the money.

Hangseng may open higher today and may continue its rebound yesterday. Hangseng may open around 25600ish and may go towards 25800. If it can go beyond, it may test the 26000 level today. However, mainland China markets may come into focus too and if the investors there remain positive, it may help Hangseng to rally further. If Hangseng fall, it may go towards yesterday's low of around 25000. US inflation data and slightly lower oil prices may help boost Hangseng today but not without the fear of profit taking to be done by investors.

Asian market preview 14/05/2008

US markets were closed mixed last night after a retail sales report came out as expected and as oil spiked to new intraday highs. Wal-mart beating earning forecast by 1 cent a share but its Q2 outlook made investors nervous and its shares fell by 2%. Energy producers helped rally after oil spiked to new high caused by output cut considered by Iran. Commerce Dept showed that retail sales fell by 0.2% in April, as expected. The numbers are coming out weak but it's still as expected and that the economy is not falling apart as first anticipated by analysts. Many analysts believe that investors are going to focus on the macro data and any adverse piece of news regarding credit markets. The Dow fell 44.13 pts or 0.34% to 12832.18, S&P500 fell 0.54 pts or 0.04% to 1403.04 while Nasdaq rose 6.63 pts or 0.27% to 2495.12 after Yahoo gets a proxy bid by Carl Icahn.

Asian markets may open flat but may rise following a more positive outlook for the US economy. High oil prices may boost producers and Japan's Nikkei may be boosted by the strength in Dollar. Oil was recently traded around $125.75ish per barrel, gold traded around $865.25ish and JPY traded around 104.60ish. Nikkei futures closed at 13975 in CME compared to the close of 13965 here yesterday.

Kospi may open around 238ish and may move higher again towards 240 during the day today. However, investors may also want to take quick profit with high oil prices giving them more uncertainties. Overall, market outlook still bullish and if it can breach 240 level, it may go even higher.

Hangseng may open flat around 25400ish and may continue the rally from yesterday to complete a rebound. However, index may find it hard to breach 26000 level with the lack of very strong positive data in the market. Hangseng market may turn to China for more news and updates regarding the giant quake although many believed that the impact on the economy is very limited. Hangseng may move towards 25700 and if it fell, it may hold at 25000 today.

Asian market preview 13/05/2008

US markets were closed higher overnight after oil dropped for the first time since May 1, retailers rallied in anticipation of better-than-expected earnings and financial shares climbed after MBIA, the world's largest bond insurer, said it has enough cash to cover claims. Wal Mart Inc. jumped on speculation profit grew as discounts lured shoppers away from competitors. Oil price dropped after briefly touched new highest intraday at $126.40 and it eased inflation concern a little bit. Stocks were also boosted by earnings outlook at Apple Inc. and Research in Motion Ltd. as investors were betting these companies will benefit from new phones. M&A rumors and speculations boosted mining shares. Analysts believe that the subprime crisis is 75% done but recession has just started. Most of the earnings from companies showed positive signs and that may move the markets higher. The Dow finished up 130.43 pts or 1.02% to 12876.31, S&P500 rose 15.31 pts or 1.10% to 1403.58 while Nasdaq rose 42.97 pts or 1.76% to 2488.49.

Asian markets may open higher today tracking Wall St gains overnight as oil prices dropped may ease some inflation concerns around the region. However, investors may be watching closely on the development in China after a deadly quake killed over 10,000 although sources said that the impact on the economy is limited for now. Oil prices dropped last night after making $10 rally the past week. Oil was recently traded around $123.80ish per barrel, gold traded around $881.35ish and JPY traded around 103.80ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 13840 in CME compared to the close of 13785 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher today following US strong close last night and after a holiday yesterday. It may open around 236-237ish and may go higher as the drop in oil may give some confidence back to investors. Corporate news from the country may be watched closely as investors will gauge the market and take cues from there.

Hangseng may open higher after a long weekend and also following US strong close overnight. It may open around 25000ish and may have a rebound after dropping more than 1000 points towards the end of last week. However, China quake news may be in focus and investors may watch closely on the China markets after the Chinese government released a stronger CPI data yesterday. If Hangseng can break the 25200 level, it may try to go towards 25500 and if Hangseng fell again, it may find 24700 as support.