Asian market preview 12/05/2008

US markets closed down on Friday following the surge in oil prices and also the bigger loss report from AIG. AIG said that they need to raise $12.5 billion to cover writedowns and there are also concerns that the commodities rally will come to an end soon. These 2 factors contribute to the decline of the markets in the US. After hours, FedEx also posted concerns on its 4Q profit outlook for 2nd time which sent its stock down 3.2%. The Dow fell 120.90 pts or 0.94% to 12745.88, S&P500 fell 9.40 pts or 0.67% to 1388.28 while Nasdaq fell 5.72 pts or 0.23% to 2445.52.

Asian markets may open lower again today following the dismal performance made by the Wall St markets on Friday. However, merkets in Asia may rise should any positive news came out of its respective countries to boost up the markets. With high oil post an inflationary concerns, upside and full market recovery is still far from complete. Oil rose to a record breaking $126ish per barrel on Friday in intraday US trading and was recently traded around $125.96ish per barrel, gold traded around $883ish per barrel and JPY traded stronger vs US$ at 102.90ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 13645 in CME compared to the close of 13540 here on Friday. Investors are nervous that the 14000 psychological level may turn into a strong upside resistance.

Kospi and Hangseng are closed for public holiday today.

Asian market preview 09/05/2008

US markets closed modestly higher last night, following better than expected April sales results posted by some retailers, a larger than expected drop in jobless claims and also the record run by oil. Oil companies and metal producers led the rally in the US markets as oil swept through the $124 mark per barrel and also after gold rose in the session. On earnings front, Wal-mart and News Corp. posted sales that topped analysts' estimates and that helped boost markets too. However, investors started to sell financials again for 2nd day, and after AIG reported another big loss in after-hours, investors may start to worry again for the financial sector as the credit crisis seems far from over although the recovery progress is on the way. The Dow rose 52.43 pts or 0.41% to 12866.78, S&P500 rose 5.11 pts or 0.37% to 1397.68 while Nasdaq rose 12.75 pts or 0.52% to 2451.24.

Asian markets may open higher today following yesterday's correction and also after the US markets closed higher last night. Commodity producers may lead the market again today after oil had another record run and also after gold price rose last night in the US trading session. However, I think market may go into more profit taking mode late in the session going into the weekend, if oil continue to rise, it will spark more inflation concerns around the region. Oil was recently traded around $124.16ish per barrel, gold traded around $882.85ish and JPY traded around 103.85ish. Nikkei futures was closed at 13960 in CME overnight compared to the close of 13930 here yesterday.

Kospi may start the day between 239-240ish today and may gain modestly. However, Kospi may extend yesterday's losses with some chipmakers and tech sector weighing down the market after Nvidia posted losses in the US. Commodities producers may lead the market with record oil prices and higher gold price. Profit taking may be in session though ahead of the long weekend in South Korea.

Hangseng may start the day around 25300ish today and may recover some of its losses for the past 2 sessions today. However, gains may be limited with high oil prices still weighing down on the market. China PPI also due out today and that may give us some clues on how the inflation in China will be affecting the market. Analysts have predicted smaller inflation in April but with oil prices keep going higher and food prices keep rising, it will be hard to tame inflation. Hangseng may rise up to 25500ish and if it should fall, 25000 is a strong support point. If it breach that, it may go down towards 24700. Profit taking may take place again ahead of the long weekend in Hong Kong.

Asian market preview 07/05/2008

US markets were closed higher overnight despite of oil reaching record price yet again. Investors believe that the economy is on its way of recovering and that the financial sector have already bottomed out. Investors have already expected financial and housing earnings to be sluggish this quarter and for them, earnings outside those sectors are the main focus. In recent weeks, earnings besides financial and housing sectors have shown that the economy is doing quite well withstanding the decline caused by the credit and housing markets. The only main concern now is the ever rising oil price, which already struck the highest intraday close to $123 per barrel. The Dow closed higher by 51.29 pts or 0.40% to 13020.83, S&P500 rose 10.77 pts or 0.77% to 1418.26 while Nasdaq climbed 19.19 pts or 0.78% to 2483.31.

Asian markets may open higher again today following the strong US close last night caused by more investors' confidence which keep on pouring into the market. Oil players maybe the main driving factor for the market while oil refiners may drop further as oil rose to record close of $121.84 per barrel on Nymex. Recently, oil traded at $121.70ish per barrel, gold traded around $875.85ish and JPY traded around 104.66. Nikkei futures closed at 14200 in CME compared to the close of 14110 here last Friday. Nikkei are set to open today after closing for 2-day public hoilidays.

Kospi may open higher and may continue the rally from yesterday as new found optimism in the US may drive the market higher yet again today. Kospi may test out the 243ish level today should investors want to bet into the recovering economy. Tech sector may drive the market today as Cisco reported good earnings. Oil refiners may drag the market but overall, market seems to be quite strong.

Hangseng may open higher and may continue the rally from yesterday. It may open around 26300 and may go up further towards 26500 if the market is strong enough. China mainland market may be in focus again today as GDP number is almost out in China and that the fear of more tightening measure may come back. Oil refiners such as Sinopec and China Petroleum may drag the market today and profit taking may happen around when the market have risen too much today. Should Hangseng fall, it may find support at 26000.

Asian market preview 06/05/2008

US markets were closed lower overnight after oil price touched record high and after Microsoft walked away from Yahoo $50 billion takeover bid. Retailers went south as the fear of higher oil prices will dent consumer spending. Profit taking also dominate the market as investors want to play it safe in these times of high oil prices and consumer products and also the economic weakness. Airlines companies also face increasing problems with energy prices climbing ever higher. With oil touched its highest intraday level yet at $120.36 and gold also climbed last night following the weakness in dollar. The Dow was closed lower by 88.66 pts or 0.68% to 12969.54, S&P500 fell 6.41 pts or 0.45% to 1407.49 while Nasdaq fell 12.87 pts or 0.52% to 2464.12. However, analysts judge that these pullback is quite normal judging that the market has ran up quite a bit since touching its lowest point in March. Now, investors will be focusing on high energy prices and might be worried about inflation problem as now the earnings season is almost done. On a positive side of the news, the ISM non-manufacturing index rose in April to 52 from an expected 49.1 as analysts anticipated earlier.

Asian markets may open lower, tracking the softer close on Wall St overnight following the high energy prices sparked inflationary concern and also that it will hurt consumer spending. Nymex light sweet crude touched its highest at $120.36 and was settled at $119.97 and gold rose higher as well, recently traded around $873ish. JPY recently traded around 104.65ish and Nikkei futures was at 14165 in CME last night, compared to the close of 14110 here on Friday. Nikkei is still closed for holiday today.

Kospi opened at around 239.80 and it went down further towards 238.95 at the time of this post being made. It has ran up again and reached its peak at 240.35 and currently traded at 239.50. Kospi seems to be quite strong here resisting the downward pressure from the high oil prices and the uncertainty in the global economy.

Hangseng may start the day lower at around 25900ish today tracking the soft regional markets. It may go down further towards 25700ish if the mainland China markets decided to have a profit taking session today following the recent gains and strength in the market. Oil refiners such as Sinopec and PetroChina may be in focus today with high oil prices slashed the profit margins made by these refiners. Should Hangseng decided to go back up, it may test the 26100 level again. However, analysts believe that the index may go below 26000 as investors would want to enjoy some profit while they're in the money after a recent 2000 points rally the past 2 weeks.

Asian market preview 05/05/2008

US markets closed mixed on Friday and gave up most of its early trading gains. The Dow gained more than 100 pts earlier after jobs report came out better than expected, where employers cut 20,000 jobs in April when the expected number was at 75,000 jobs cut. Unemployment rate also fell to 5% from 5.1% in the previous month. These data indicated that the economy is still contracting but at a milder pace, better than what most people had anticipated before. Durable goods and factory orders also came in better than expected; factory orders increased 1.4% compared to the expected 0.2% increase. This week economic data proved very crucial to the well-being of the US economy, with GDP number, jobs report and also durable goods and factory orders. All the numbers still indicated that the US is still in recession, but most analysts now found more confidence that the recession is at a much milder pace and believe that they can outrun it. At the end of the trading day, markets edged down and it's quite normal for investors to lock in profits ahead of the weekend after recent rallies performed by the markets. The Dow closed up 48.20 pts or 0.37% to 13058.20 and gained 1.29% for the week, S&P500 closed up 4.56 pts or 0.32% to 1413.90 and gained 1.15% for the week, while Nasdaq closed down 3.72 pts or 0.15% to 2476.99 and gained 2.23% for the week. Sun Microsystems was the biggest drag for Nasdaq, slipping $3.69 or 23% after the company stunned investors, reporting loss for third quarter.

Asian markets may open higher again today, continuing the good rally from last week following better-than-expected economic data from the US and also a decent performance by the US markets on Friday. Crude oil and gold prices also rose on Friday with crude rising $3.80 and was closed at $116.32 while gold settled at $856.35. US$ also gained strength against JPY and was settled at 105.39. Nikkei futures was closed at 14200 in CME compared to the close of 14110 here on Friday.

Nikkei and Kospi markets are closed for holiday today.

Hangseng may open higher today around 26400ish after good US economic data, signaling milder economic contraction than previously anticipated. It may go higher and if it can breach 26500 level, it may try to go towards 26700ish. China mainland markets may be in focus again during the day for HK investors to look for trading direction. If Hangseng should fall, it may go towards 26000 and if it can breach the 26000 level, it may go towards 26800. Volatility in the market may still be high with recent rally in the market, investors may find any reason for them to lock in profit.

Asian market preview 02/05/2008

US markets were closed at the highest levels since January last night after better-than-expected economic data, tecnhology earnings, falling oil prices and the rally in dollar prompt investors to buy more stocks as they judge that the economy is starting to recover from its worst. Technology shares rally after better-than-expected earnings from symantec and comcast prompt investors to buy the battered tech stocks. Banks rally after The Fed's rate cut the day before also prompting investors to get their hands on the battered sector. Investors start to look away from commodities as dollar posted a big rally and closed at a 5-week high against the euro. The ISM manufacturing index came out better-than-expected and that complete the rally last night. Investors are waiting though for yet another dismal jobs report to be released later on tonight. The Dow was closed above 13000 for the first time since Jan 3, rising 189.87 pts or 1.48% at 13010. S&P500 rose 23.75 pts or 1.71% to close at 1409.34, its highest close since Jan 14. Nasdaq rallied 67.91 pts or 2.81% to close at 2480.71, its highest close since Jan 10.

Asian markets may open higher today after most markets were closed for a holiday yesterday. New found optimism from the US may be the driving factor for Asian markets and the lower oil cost may also play a part in the rally, easing inflation concern. Some Asian markets will be heading into a long weekend this week and that may limit the rise as investors may want to take some profit when the markets rise too much. Crude oil was recently traded around $112.26ish recently, gold traded around $852.30ish and JPY traded around 104.40ish. Nikkei futures closed at 14090 in CME compared to the close of 13810 here yesterday.

Kospi may open higher today at around 240ish and may even go higher boosted from chipmakers and exporters as new confidence in the US may prompt investors to buy more stocks. lower oil prices may hurt oil producers but will be an advantage to most companies such as airlines industries. The markets' gains may be limited later on in the day as Kospi will be heading into a long weekend this week. Kospi's range may be around 238-245ish.

Hangseng may shot higher at the open and may test the 26000 level today after a strong close on Wall St last night. If Hangseng managed to breach the 26000 level, it may go and rise towards 26300ish level. Rally may be supported by oil refiners as oil went down, exporters, banking and retailers. Chinese markets may also play a part in the rally if they continue on to rally again today. Should the Hangseng market fall, it may find support at 25600.

Asian market preview 01/05/2008

US markets ended the session mildly lower after soaring 178 pts for Dow Jones intraday. The better-than-expected GDP growth in Q1 sparked a strong start to the trading day and The Fed's rate cut made the markets rally. However, the comments from The Fed, stating that the economic is still weak and inflation rate is still uncertain made investors nervous towards the end of the trading session. It seems that The Fed is ready to pause on cutting rate and they said that the past few rate cuts will promote moderate growth over time. Better-than-expected earnings season have helped the markets to rebound from its lowest points this month as the Dow climbed 4.54%, S&P500 rose 4.75% and Nasdaq jumped 5.9%. Overnight, the Dow fell 11.81 pts or 0.09% to 12820.13, S&P500 fell 5.35 pts or 0.38% to 1385.59 and Nasdaq fell 13.30 pts or 0.55% to 2412.80.

Asian markets may open rather flat with some upward bias after The Fed's cut overnight as expected. However, the statement that came afterwards made investors unclear about what The Fed's going to be doing next. In one hand, the economic condition still remains weak and that there's still room for more rate cuts in the near term but on the other hand, GDP number came in better than expected and there's inflationary problem to be considered by The Fed. Crude oil was recently traded around $114.70ish per barrel, gold traded around $873ish and JPY traded at 103.90ish. Nikkei futures closed at CME at 13930 compared to the close of 13740 here yesterday.

South Korea's Kospi and Hong Kong's Hangseng markets are closed for labour day holiday today and will resume trading tomorrow.